Texas Spring 2019

[gboudx]

Once again the snow is elsewhere

I say good riddance to winter after this cold snap

Next winter has to be better, right???

It depends on if expectations change.

Well when its now 4 years without more than a dusting of snow...

I hear ya, but all the more reason for expectations to change. Expect nothing and be pleasantly surprised if something does happen.

[Tejas89]

I've noticed the media still hypes things regardless. The needle has just shifted to hyping "arctic fronts" that drop us into the 30's and 40's with a cold rain.

After years of that, everyone just sort of gets used to it.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

We're getting tired of all this snow in Houston this winter...

May we never forget this day.

Seriously though, more snow days this winter than DFW again!

[cheezyWXguy]

This cold sucks without precip, I'm ready to shove a nail in the coffin of Winter 2018-19, and move on to Spring.

On that note, I wouldn't sleep on Saturday's potential severe weather episode. Globals are showing a pretty strong negatively tilted trough in that time frame and FWD NWS mentions it in their discussion. They don't get into the details much, and rightfully so, due to how much this can change in the next few days. Shear seems more than sufficient to me, but instability is probably the most lacking factor due to timing, as the most favorable conditions pass over DFW in the morning while the atmosphere may be capped. If the timing slows another 6 hours or so, things could get pretty dicey. Not to mention any mesoscale features from the previous night's storms that won't be resolved for another 4 days or so.

[Cpv17]

Well the cold air has definitely arrived into SETX now. Heck of a front for March. Topped out at 37 degrees for the high this afternoon. Wind chill has been in the mid 20’s all day. Once again, the forecast busted regarding temps. 5 to 10 degrees colder than forecasted for this afternoon.

[bubba hotep]

For Saturday, the timing looks off for DFW with the main threat being farther east at this point. If the system slows down by 6 to 12hrs then the threat would shift back towards the I35 corridor.

[Brent]

We're getting tired of all this snow in Houston this winter...

May we never forget this day.

Seriously though, more snow days this winter than DFW again!

We'll get our revenge one day

[Haris]

Low was 25F this morning.

High 33F.

Tonight is expected to be 23F here.

Wild.

[Cpv17]

Low was 25F this morning.

High 33F.

Tonight is expected to be 23F here.

Wild.

We had an ice storm here in SE Texas on this date 5 years ago lol

[Haris]

18z GFS and 12Z euro + ensembles of both models advertising 2 big storm systems to move across tx over next 10 days with 1-2" across most of the region!

[cheezyWXguy]

18z GFS and 12Z euro + ensembles of both models advertising 2 big storm systems to move across tx over next 10 days with 1-2" across most of the region!

Agreed both systems are pretty impressive on the 18z GFS, especially the second one that comes through next Tuesday. Both need to be watched closely. The timing isn't overly favorable on either one for instability to be maximized, but the globals tend to overdo the progression speed of systems like this.

[1900hurricane]

Well, being outside today sucked.

At least the end is in sight though with some warm air advection cranking up over the next few days ahead of a few decent looking troughs. The one early next week in particular has really caught my eye.



I am so ready for convective activity again.

[missygirl810]

We're getting tired of all this snow in Houston this winter...

May we never forget this day.

Seriously though, more snow days this winter than DFW again!

Keep rubbing it in you two... May have to introduce you to my friend karma lol.

[Haris]

I dunno but I loved the cold weather today! Walked outside around 20min during lunch time.

26F>100F

[1900hurricane]

An El Nino pattern would actually favor tornado activity centered back to the west a bit. La Ninas are often the ones that go crazy to the east. The last notable El Nino year was 2015, which was rather active in the southern plains (although individual storms were rather grungy that year). El Ninos often get bad reps from storm chasers, but not all of it is founded. Sure, numbers may be a little depressed compared to La Ninas, but the tradeoff can be storms in the more chaser friendly high plans versus the forest laden southeast.

I see El Ninos (like 2015) as quantity over quality. There are notable out of season outbreaks (winter) that was flashy during El Ninos but it's the Ninas that offer some of the great chasing days (in particular moderate to strong Ninas). In Texas the Nino often can muddy conditions with a STJ. In addition the big -PNA jet streak Springs are more likely to occur with a La Nina as well as sufficient warming early Spring. If we were looking for a signature Spring event, we'd see a lot of warmth the next month or two.

Can we really name a significant risk day in Texas of late that produced something memorable?

I'd say the Canton area tornadoes from April 29th, 2017 personally, although my perception of the risk beforehand might be inflated because I was out chasing the event that day. It's been a hot minute though.

https://www.weather.gov/images/fwd/042917/tornado/tracks.jpg-large

Speaking of this day, up until yesterday, this was the last time an EF-4 tornado had occurred anywhere in the United States.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Maxed out with a high of 29 today under sunny skies. Felt awesome! Tonight’s low is forecasted at 15. It appears that they lowered the high for tomorrow to the mid 30s instead of the 40s.

[Lagreeneyes03]

I see El Ninos (like 2015) as quantity over quality. There are notable out of season outbreaks (winter) that was flashy during El Ninos but it's the Ninas that offer some of the great chasing days (in particular moderate to strong Ninas). In Texas the Nino often can muddy conditions with a STJ. In addition the big -PNA jet streak Springs are more likely to occur with a La Nina as well as sufficient warming early Spring. If we were looking for a signature Spring event, we'd see a lot of warmth the next month or two.

Can we really name a significant risk day in Texas of late that produced something memorable?

I'd say the Canton area tornadoes from April 29th, 2017 personally, although my perception of the risk beforehand might be inflated because I was out chasing the event that day. It's been a hot minute though.

https://www.weather.gov/images/fwd/042917/tornado/tracks.jpg-large

Speaking of this day, up until yesterday, this was the last time an EF-4 tornado had occurred anywhere in the United States.

I remember something about the threat being right over the DFW metroplex that day, and somehow it moved east, which wasn't forecasted and it baffled the mets when it happened. We were road tripping to Georgia and wanted to leave DFW by 2pm because the threat was around 4, well we didnt' get on the road til 4 and we stopped at Buc-ees in Terrell for awhile, thought it was all clear, and drove thru Canton about 10 minutes after the Tornado hit. We then stopped at a Pilot right past Canton and hid out again for awhile and the owners of the store came out and yelled tornado warning and herded everyone inside. We hid out there till about 8-9pm. It was crazy.

[Brent]

Saturday definitely looks like a severe weather setup on the Euro, more of a threat overhead than east of us for sure

Also another big storm in about a week that could easily be more severe weather/heavy rain

It appears we are flipping to a spring pattern quickly

[Ralph's Weather]

Yesterday's low was 23 and high was 33 stayed cloudy all day with a couple peaks of sun. Ir id down to 20.right now with some cooling time still left. It'll be Interesting to see if we reach the 40s.

[wxman57]

6Z GFS has snow in the D-FW area on the 18th. I wouldn't count on snow up there, though. It'll probably just snow here in Houston again...