Texas Spring 2019

[Shoshana]

Currently 25 here. Too cold. I hope we get rain this spring to moderate the summer heat, but no severe weather, I don’t want anyone to get hurt

[missygirl810]

6Z GFS has snow in the D-FW area on the 18th. I wouldn't count on snow up there, though. It'll probably just snow here in Houston again...

[Yukon Cornelius]

Can we just skip spring and summer and jump to around mid October?

[wxman57]

Can we just skip spring and summer and jump to around mid October?

And miss the best weather months of the year (May-September)? No way! Our operations manager just announced that the contest to predict the first 95F in Houston is now open. We have four such contests each year. Unfortunately, I've never won that contest, but I did win the firs freeze prediction once Last year, IAH hit 96F on May 17th, the earliest date since 1970. Perhaps we'll have a very early first 95F this year, maybe late March? I can dream...

[Yukon Cornelius]

Can we just skip spring and summer and jump to around mid October?

And miss the best weather months of the year (May-September)? No way! Our operations manager just announced that the contest to predict the first 95F in Houston is now open. We have four such contests each year. Unfortunately, I've never won that contest, but I did win the firs freeze prediction once Perhaps we'll have a very early first 95F this year, maybe late March? I can dream...

I think you mean October-March. All of this wall building must have gotten you a little mixed up on your months.

[wxman57]

Can we just skip spring and summer and jump to around mid October?

And miss the best weather months of the year (May-September)? No way! Our operations manager just announced that the contest to predict the first 95F in Houston is now open. We have four such contests each year. Unfortunately, I've never won that contest, but I did win the firs freeze prediction once Perhaps we'll have a very early first 95F this year, maybe late March? I can dream...

I think you mean October-March. All of this wall building must have gotten you a little mixed up on your months.

Oh, no, I definitely meant May-September. I was just checking my first 95F spreadsheet of dates and notice a quite encouraging trend. The downward trend on the graphic below means that the first 95F is coming earlier and earlier each year. March may be unrealistic, but April isn't out of the question.

Now, on the downside, 1970 was the start of a cool cycle of the AMO, which lasted until 1995. I've been discussing the current AMO cycle with Phil Klotzbach. We think that the warm AMO may have ended in 2016, meaning we're moving back into a multi-decadal cold cycle. This would mean that the first 95F may be trending a little later than in recent years going forward.

[Cpv17]

And miss the best weather months of the year (May-September)? No way! Our operations manager just announced that the contest to predict the first 95F in Houston is now open. We have four such contests each year. Unfortunately, I've never won that contest, but I did win the firs freeze prediction once Perhaps we'll have a very early first 95F this year, maybe late March? I can dream...

I think you mean October-March. All of this wall building must have gotten you a little mixed up on your months.

Oh, no, I definitely meant May-September. I was just checking my first 95F spreadsheet of dates and notice a quite encouraging trend. The downward trend on the graphic below means that the first 95F is coming earlier and earlier each year. March may be unrealistic, but April isn't out of the question.

Now, on the downside, 1970 was the start of a cool cycle of the AMO, which lasted until 1995. I've been discussing the current AMO cycle with Phil Klotzbach. We think that the warm AMO may have ended in 2016, meaning we're moving back into a multi-decadal cold cycle. This would mean that the first 95F may be trending a little later than in recent years going forward.

http://wxman57.com/images/95.png

It’s not gonna be no 95 degrees in April lol. You’d be lucky to see 95 in May much less April.

[bubba hotep]

Latest Euro Weeklies look cool and wet. Recent analogs suggest that pattern continues into the Summer for the Northern portions of Texas.

[rwfromkansas]

A member in a FB group showed off snow he made the past two nights around Weatherford. Pretty impressive amount.

[Ntxw]

Latest Euro Weeklies look cool and wet. Recent analogs suggest that pattern continues into the Summer for the Northern portions of Texas.

The background state has been established by the Nino. 2019 will be very Nino-y. If another WWB occurs this spring we'll double dip.

March is also starting near -20F below normal. It would take a blowtorch to clear that.

[Yukon Cornelius]

And miss the best weather months of the year (May-September)? No way! Our operations manager just announced that the contest to predict the first 95F in Houston is now open. We have four such contests each year. Unfortunately, I've never won that contest, but I did win the firs freeze prediction once Perhaps we'll have a very early first 95F this year, maybe late March? I can dream...

I think you mean October-March. All of this wall building must have gotten you a little mixed up on your months.

Oh, no, I definitely meant May-September. I was just checking my first 95F spreadsheet of dates and notice a quite encouraging trend. The downward trend on the graphic below means that the first 95F is coming earlier and earlier each year. March may be unrealistic, but April isn't out of the question.

Now, on the downside, 1970 was the start of a cool cycle of the AMO, which lasted until 1995. I've been discussing the current AMO cycle with Phil Klotzbach. We think that the warm AMO may have ended in 2016, meaning we're moving back into a multi-decadal cold cycle. This would mean that the first 95F may be trending a little later than in recent years going forward.

http://wxman57.com/images/95.png

That’s actually very interesting. Thanks!

[Ntxw]

Can we just skip spring and summer and jump to around mid October?

And miss the best weather months of the year (May-September)? No way! Our operations manager just announced that the contest to predict the first 95F in Houston is now open. We have four such contests each year. Unfortunately, I've never won that contest, but I did win the firs freeze prediction once Last year, IAH hit 96F on May 17th, the earliest date since 1970. Perhaps we'll have a very early first 95F this year, maybe late March? I can dream...

DFW has seen less and less torchy (way above normal) months since 2017 so maybe you are on to something. In fact from about 2005-2016 below normal months became extinct sans a few anomalies (2009, 13, 14). But since then they have been popping more like daisies!

[Ralph's Weather]

4 years ago today I had 2.5" of snow.

[Haris]

23.9F this morning.

[SoupBone]

6Z GFS has snow in the D-FW area on the 18th. I wouldn't count on snow up there, though. It'll probably just snow here in Houston again...

I thought you guaranteed that Winter was over after this latest cold front?

[Portastorm]

Interesting to see what was probably the coldest night of Winter 2018-19 happen in early March. Reporting sites in Travis County were as low as 20 degrees. Most sites closer to the urban core reported lows in the mid 20s. The Portastorm Weather Center in scenic southwest Travis County recorded a morning low of 26.8 degrees.

[Ntxw]

6Z GFS has snow in the D-FW area on the 18th. I wouldn't count on snow up there, though. It'll probably just snow here in Houston again...

I thought you guaranteed that Winter was over after this latest cold front?

His wall, while holding cold air back in winter, also prevents warm air from going north to warm Canada and the Northern Plains to heat up the continent in Spring.

[wxman57]

6Z GFS has snow in the D-FW area on the 18th. I wouldn't count on snow up there, though. It'll probably just snow here in Houston again...

I thought you guaranteed that Winter was over after this latest cold front?

His wall, while holding cold air back in winter, also prevents warm air from going north to warm Canada and the Northern Plains to heat up the continent in Spring.

The wall will keep hot summer air from making it north to Canada, resulting in an even warmer fall and winter across Texas later this year. Of course, there's always the danger that the cold air builds up so high in Canada that it overtops my current wall. That's OK, I've secured funding for building my wall higher by declaring a national emergency.

[1900hurricane]

Looks like the switch to spring will be flipping on pretty rapidly with two dynamic systems ejecting into the plains over the next week or so. The ECMWF depictions of the one next week have really caught my eye.

[cheezyWXguy]

Looks like the switch to spring will be flipping on pretty rapidly with two dynamic systems ejecting into the plains over the next week or so. The ECMWF depictions of the one next week have really caught my eye.

Agreed, I hate to bring it up but the 500mb pattern reminds me a bit of 12/26/15.
06z GFS for 12z Tuesday

500mb pattern at 00z 12/27/2015

Still a little fast on the timing, but like this Saturday, a few hours delay would make a huge difference. DFW is highlighted in the SPC D5 (Saturday) outlook now btw.