Texas Spring 2019

[Cpv17]

Looks like the switch to spring will be flipping on pretty rapidly with two dynamic systems ejecting into the plains over the next week or so. The ECMWF depictions of the one next week have really caught my eye.

Agreed, I hate to bring it up but the 500mb pattern reminds me a bit of 12/26/15.
06z GFS for 12z Tuesday
https://imgur.com/6VsXvTA
500mb pattern at 00z 12/27/2015
https://imgur.com/N1o1W58
Still a little fast on the timing, but like this Saturday, a few hours delay would make a huge difference. DFW is highlighted in the SPC D5 (Saturday) outlook now btw.

Right now it looks like places near the Texas/Louisiana line would have the biggest impacts.. for both events from what I can see on the models anyway.

[Ntxw]

There is also excessive rainfall threat with both systems. 5+ totals might not be off the table.

[Haris]

There is also excessive rainfall threat with both systems. 5+ totals might not be off the table.

Ntxw, do you think a prolonged active weather pattern is ahead that includes CTX as well?

[Ntxw]

There is also excessive rainfall threat with both systems. 5+ totals might not be off the table.

Ntxw, do you think a prolonged active weather pattern is ahead that includes CTX as well?

Initially dynamics will be better to the north. But mid month onward everyone should be in play. I'm not fully sold on a huge severe wx event for us yet, like winter if something can go wrong then it will probably will. Do like rain prospects and cool spells after each system.

[bubba hotep]

Can we just skip spring and summer and jump to around mid October?

And miss the best weather months of the year (May-September)? No way! Our operations manager just announced that the contest to predict the first 95F in Houston is now open. We have four such contests each year. Unfortunately, I've never won that contest, but I did win the firs freeze prediction once Last year, IAH hit 96F on May 17th, the earliest date since 1970. Perhaps we'll have a very early first 95F this year, maybe late March? I can dream...

DFW has seen less and less torchy (way above normal) months since 2017 so maybe you are on to something. In fact from about 2005-2016 below normal months became extinct sans a few anomalies (2009, 13, 14). But since then they have been popping more like daisies!

March is off to a solid start. After this active stretch, which won't warm us up too much because of the rain, we probably flip back cold for second half of month.

[Cpv17]

The Euro doesn’t really look good for central Texas or the southern half of the state. Less than 1” in most areas.

[aggiecutter]

There is also excessive rainfall threat with both systems. 5+ totals might not be off the table.

[Cpv17]

There is also excessive rainfall threat with both systems. 5+ totals might not be off the table.

[url]https://i269.photobucket.com/albums/jj79/Photo44_album/rain_zpspuxgocum.png [/url]

You sir live in one of the best places in Texas for exciting weather. NE Texas gets more exciting stuff than anywhere else in the state.

[Ntxw]

There is also excessive rainfall threat with both systems. 5+ totals might not be off the table.

[url]https://i269.photobucket.com/albums/jj79/Photo44_album/rain_zpspuxgocum.png [/url]

You sir live in one of the best places in Texas for exciting weather. NE Texas gets more exciting stuff than anywhere else in the state.

I'd say the Panhandle is more exciting . More snow, more ice, more cold, more heat, more everything but the extreme rainfall totals!

[1900hurricane]

[url]https://i269.photobucket.com/albums/jj79/Photo44_album/rain_zpspuxgocum.png [/url]

You sir live in one of the best places in Texas for exciting weather. NE Texas gets more exciting stuff than anywhere else in the state.

I'd say the Panhandle is more exciting . More snow, more ice, more cold, more heat, more everything but the extreme rainfall totals!

Heh, I'd actually say the Balconies Escarpment area east to the coastal plain, but I tend to place an emphasis on precipitation events, which this region has in spades.

[Cpv17]

I’d say the area from around Carthage down to Port Arthur has the most precipitation.

[Ntxw]

You sir live in one of the best places in Texas for exciting weather. NE Texas gets more exciting stuff than anywhere else in the state.

I'd say the Panhandle is more exciting . More snow, more ice, more cold, more heat, more everything but the extreme rainfall totals!

Heh, I'd actually say the Balconies Escarpment area east to the coastal plain, but I tend to place an emphasis on precipitation events, which this region has in spades.

Hah! Of course. Precipitation events in total that's the place. But hey, can you get a better chase than a super-cell in the open flats of the panhandle? In terms of extremes purely, I don't think the coastal plains can outdo the panhandle . Where else in Texas can you be 85F, then -5 and a blizzard within a 24-36 hour time frame...115 in the summer!

[Haris]

Hands down the worst parts of Texas are far W, SW and S.

[bubba hotep]

Appears to be some significant cold risk for the last 1/3 of March.

[1900hurricane]

Yuck.

CLIMATE...
As of 3 PM, College Station has not reached 50 degrees and this
is the 3rd consecutive day this month that this has occurred. The
last time College Station had 3 consecutive days in March not
reaching 50 degrees was in 1924 (March 11,12 and 13).

[Cerlin]

I’ve got a conflict of interest because I’m so excited for Saturday’s rain potential but still hanging on to winter...I’ve really enjoyed these cold mornings but I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t looking forward to just a little bit of warmth and thunder.

[Brent]

Huge blizzard in the east on the first day of spring on the 0z gfs

Can we get a west trend

Like a superstorm 1993 redux

[Ralph's Weather]

Down to 20 again this morning.

[bubba hotep]

Wwlp, here comes the models drying up for Texas part lol

[Ntxw]

Wwlp, here comes the models drying up for Texas part lol

Timing isn't that great either for severe. Maybe a good passing band of rain early morning? More potent svr event in dixie more likely.