Texas Spring 2019

[TheProfessor]

Wow at the 12Z GFS for areas between Bryan and Dallas for next Tuesday evening. That's a scary environment. The only thing a little lackluster is the instability, particularly in the low levels. Adding a couple of degrees at the surface could mean tornadoes. Also note the storm motions and velocities, 55 kt to the NNE!

https://i.imgur.com/BYofCbl.png

That's more than enough instability when combined with that amount of shear. High shear low instability(1500 J/kg isn't that low in this scenario though) can sometimes fly under the radar. That would be a pretty scary sounding if that were to occur and the main thing to look out for would be if there's any VBV in the lower 3 km.

[1900hurricane]

Wow at the 12Z GFS for areas between Bryan and Dallas for next Tuesday evening. That's a scary environment. The only thing a little lackluster is the instability, particularly in the low levels. Adding a couple of degrees at the surface could mean tornadoes. Also note the storm motions and velocities, 55 kt to the NNE!

https://i.imgur.com/BYofCbl.png

That's more than enough instability when combined with that amount of shear. High shear low instability(1500 J/kg isn't that low in this scenario though) can sometimes fly under the radar. That would be a pretty scary sounding if that were to occur and the main thing to look out for would be if there's any VBV in the lower 3 km.

Oh for sure. I was mainly concerned about low level instability. 0-3 km CAPE in this particular sounding is 45 J/kg, which is also sufficient, although big days typically have more. Most other locations have less though, owing to slightly mediocre low level lapse rates.

[Lagreeneyes03]

12Z Euro has freezing/frozen precip into the D-FW area March 16th. Perhaps THIS time it really will happen!

''

Oh come on now. You promised HEAT.

[TheProfessor]

Wow at the 12Z GFS for areas between Bryan and Dallas for next Tuesday evening. That's a scary environment. The only thing a little lackluster is the instability, particularly in the low levels. Adding a couple of degrees at the surface could mean tornadoes. Also note the storm motions and velocities, 55 kt to the NNE!

https://i.imgur.com/BYofCbl.png

That's more than enough instability when combined with that amount of shear. High shear low instability(1500 J/kg isn't that low in this scenario though) can sometimes fly under the radar. That would be a pretty scary sounding if that were to occur and the main thing to look out for would be if there's any VBV in the lower 3 km.

Oh for sure. I was mainly concerned about low level instability. 0-3 km CAPE in this particular sounding is 45 J/kg, which is also sufficient, although big days typically have more. Most other locations have less though, owing to slightly mediocre low level lapse rates.

Yeah, though I find 3CAPE doesn't typically make or break events (once you reach a certain range) but instead seems to separate the moderate outbreaks from the historical ones. However that sounding does actually show VBV in the lower 3 km which can definitely break an event. It will be interesting to see what the NAM show when it gets inside it's wheelhouse of about 48 hours or so.

[South Texas Storms]

Latest Euro Weeklies look good. Cooler and wetter than normal weather pattern through much of April. Yes please!

[1900hurricane]

That's more than enough instability when combined with that amount of shear. High shear low instability(1500 J/kg isn't that low in this scenario though) can sometimes fly under the radar. That would be a pretty scary sounding if that were to occur and the main thing to look out for would be if there's any VBV in the lower 3 km.

Oh for sure. I was mainly concerned about low level instability. 0-3 km CAPE in this particular sounding is 45 J/kg, which is also sufficient, although big days typically have more. Most other locations have less though, owing to slightly mediocre low level lapse rates.

Yeah, though I find 3CAPE doesn't typically make or break events (once you reach a certain range) but instead seems to separate the moderate outbreaks from the historical ones. However that sounding does actually show VBV in the lower 3 km which can definitely break an event. It will be interesting to see what the NAM show when it gets inside it's wheelhouse of about 48 hours or so.

I'm not seeing much backing in that particular sounding. In fact, that hodograph is what really jumped out at me. It looks like a pretty classic staff and flag with good storm relative winds through the entire profile. Now, further south there is certainly some backing occurring near 3 km up. The sounding below is at the same time as my previous one, but further south near College Station shows this pretty well with a more 'M' shaped hodo and very weak storm relative winds near 3 km up (and no 3 km CAPE).



Another potential setup issue I could see involves shear vectors wrt the boundary. The angle between the two isn't particularly large (although decent in N Texas), and with the amount of forcing present, quick upscale growth is possible.

[wxman57]

12Z Euro has freezing/frozen precip into the D-FW area March 16th. Perhaps THIS time it really will happen!

Gosh darn it sir. You have won. No Winter. You win. May the Summer winds blow nothing but sub 95 degree temperatures in our area all season.

I'm fine with the sub-95F temps all summer, as long as the high is 80 or higher.

I am a bit concerned about the severe weather potential Tuesday evening/Wednesday morning.

[Haris]

Latest Euro Weeklies look good. Cooler and wetter than normal weather pattern through much of April. Yes please!

I just looked myself. Its the best run we've had in a while.

[TheProfessor]

Oh for sure. I was mainly concerned about low level instability. 0-3 km CAPE in this particular sounding is 45 J/kg, which is also sufficient, although big days typically have more. Most other locations have less though, owing to slightly mediocre low level lapse rates.

Yeah, though I find 3CAPE doesn't typically make or break events (once you reach a certain range) but instead seems to separate the moderate outbreaks from the historical ones. However that sounding does actually show VBV in the lower 3 km which can definitely break an event. It will be interesting to see what the NAM show when it gets inside it's wheelhouse of about 48 hours or so.

I'm not seeing much backing in that particular sounding. In fact, that hodograph is what really jumped out at me. It looks like a pretty classic staff and flag with good storm relative winds through the entire profile. Now, further south there is certainly some backing occurring near 3 km up. The sounding below is at the same time as my previous one, but further south near College Station shows this pretty well with a more 'M' shaped hodo and very weak storm relative winds near 3 km up (and no 3 km CAPE).

https://i.imgur.com/wznYEYq.png

Another potential setup issue I could see involves shear vectors wrt the boundary. The angle between the two isn't particularly large (although decent in N Texas), and with the amount of forcing present, quick upscale growth is possible.

https://i.imgur.com/CKyTXZe.png

There's a hint of it. But I'm also being nit picky lol. It will definitely be something to watch though.

[cheezyWXguy]

Yeah, though I find 3CAPE doesn't typically make or break events (once you reach a certain range) but instead seems to separate the moderate outbreaks from the historical ones. However that sounding does actually show VBV in the lower 3 km which can definitely break an event. It will be interesting to see what the NAM show when it gets inside it's wheelhouse of about 48 hours or so.

I'm not seeing much backing in that particular sounding. In fact, that hodograph is what really jumped out at me. It looks like a pretty classic staff and flag with good storm relative winds through the entire profile. Now, further south there is certainly some backing occurring near 3 km up. The sounding below is at the same time as my previous one, but further south near College Station shows this pretty well with a more 'M' shaped hodo and very weak storm relative winds near 3 km up (and no 3 km CAPE).

https://i.imgur.com/wznYEYq.png

Another potential setup issue I could see involves shear vectors wrt the boundary. The angle between the two isn't particularly large (although decent in N Texas), and with the amount of forcing present, quick upscale growth is possible.

https://i.imgur.com/CKyTXZe.png

There's a hint of it. https://i.imgur.com/E8Zoi3D.png But I'm also being nit picky lol. It will definitely be something to watch though.

What was it that kept cells so discrete during the 12/26/15 event and 4/3/12 event? I remember that in both, vectors were to the nne with tornadic supercells, but upscale growth never really hindered tornado potential.

[TheProfessor]

I'm not seeing much backing in that particular sounding. In fact, that hodograph is what really jumped out at me. It looks like a pretty classic staff and flag with good storm relative winds through the entire profile. Now, further south there is certainly some backing occurring near 3 km up. The sounding below is at the same time as my previous one, but further south near College Station shows this pretty well with a more 'M' shaped hodo and very weak storm relative winds near 3 km up (and no 3 km CAPE).

https://i.imgur.com/wznYEYq.png

Another potential setup issue I could see involves shear vectors wrt the boundary. The angle between the two isn't particularly large (although decent in N Texas), and with the amount of forcing present, quick upscale growth is possible.

https://i.imgur.com/CKyTXZe.png

There's a hint of it. https://i.imgur.com/E8Zoi3D.png But I'm also being nit picky lol. It will definitely be something to watch though.

What was it that kept cells so discrete during the 12/26/15 event and 4/3/12 event? I remember that in both, vectors were to the nne with tornadic supercells, but upscale growth never really hindered tornado potential.

I think the biggest thing for 12/26 was that the supercells had formed in front of a line of storms. There was likely enough lift for those supercells to form, but those supercells also cause sinking air that helped them stay discrete until the frontal system came and formed more linear storms.

[TexasF6]

Joe Bastardi said Central Texas is under the gun for "big ticket" severe weather next week. And he is saying this weekend will be substantial as well. Dallas is under Marginal risk, any chance this could upgrade? Any thoughts on a big outbreak for CenTex next week?

[bubba hotep]

Models are trending back wetter for DFW with this 1st system. Not as wet as the early runs but not the dry frontal passage of a couple of days ago.

[Haris]

Wow!

[Cerlin]

[url]https://i.ibb.co/x13ztJm/gfs-mslp-pcpn-frzn-scus-21.png [/url]
Wow![url]https://i.ibb.co/0h3sR0q/gfs-apcpn-scus-24.png [/url]

That’s a lot of rain!

[Ntxw]

Joe Bastardi said Central Texas is under the gun for "big ticket" severe weather next week. And he is saying this weekend will be substantial as well. Dallas is under Marginal risk, any chance this could upgrade? Any thoughts on a big outbreak for CenTex next week?

At this time it doesn't look, to me, like a moderate or high risk day. This weekend timing is not great, squally weather and showers in the early morning..not an ideal time for severe weather outbreaks. Tuesday has more potential especially if it goes super-cellular mode ahead of a quickly forming MCS that will overtake everything by evening. But that's not a given either, it may just be junky convection/rain that muddles the set up. Tuesday is a fairly potent system though.

[bubba hotep]

Joe Bastardi said Central Texas is under the gun for "big ticket" severe weather next week. And he is saying this weekend will be substantial as well. Dallas is under Marginal risk, any chance this could upgrade? Any thoughts on a big outbreak for CenTex next week?

At this time it doesn't look, to me, like a moderate or high risk day. This weekend timing is not great, squally weather and showers in the early morning..not an ideal time for severe weather outbreaks. Tuesday has more potential especially if it goes super-cellular mode ahead of a quickly forming MCS that will overtake everything by evening. But that's not a given either, it may just be junky convection/rain that muddles the set up. Tuesday is a fairly potent system though.

2015 anyone?

[Cpv17]

[url]https://i.ibb.co/x13ztJm/gfs-mslp-pcpn-frzn-scus-21.png [/url]
Wow![url]https://i.ibb.co/0h3sR0q/gfs-apcpn-scus-24.png [/url]

Woohoo, I get some crumbs!!

[Haris]

[url]https://i.ibb.co/x13ztJm/gfs-mslp-pcpn-frzn-scus-21.png [/url]
Wow![url]https://i.ibb.co/0h3sR0q/gfs-apcpn-scus-24.png [/url]

Woohoo, I get some crumbs!!

Dont complain after the 5" last week.

I havent seen a >1" rain event since Jan 2nd

[Brent]

[url]https://i.ibb.co/x13ztJm/gfs-mslp-pcpn-frzn-scus-21.png [/url]
Wow![url]https://i.ibb.co/0h3sR0q/gfs-apcpn-scus-24.png [/url]

Woohoo, I get some crumbs!!

Dont complain after the 5" last week.

I havent seen a >1" rain event since Jan 2nd

seriously its our turn now

Let's see if this goes better than the "our turn for snow" did