Florida Weather

[psyclone]

Magnificent stretch of Spring weather underway. Beaches, golf courses and every other outdoor venue is jammed with happy sun loving people and this weather looks to last for awhile. Beyond that it does look like the pattern favors another cooldown around the 20th or so. Such a transition could yield a period of wet or thundery weather and since we're still in our spring severe season this is something worth watching. in the meantime...

[TheStormExpert]

Winter is over folks!!

[boca]

I’m at Deerfield Bch just chilling out and winter is over and hoping for rain.

[gatorcane]

Looks like another cool down in about 8-10 days per the Euro and GFS, possibly much below normal temps.

[psyclone]

Yep. We've got another spring cooldown on the way. Once we're past the danger of severe cold/freeze potential I am cheering on cooler than normal temps. It is optimal with that strong sun angle. Looks like we're going to cash in again.

[chaser1]

I'm not so sure about any further significant cool downs. As I see it, it just seems that the GFS 500mb runs continue to display a progressive pattern with the tease of deeper south troughing but one that eventual subsequent runs continues to flatten out the base of any Southeast U.S. approaching troughs largely leaving most of Florida with a continued West to WSW mid level flow aloft. That could still permit enough depth for a decent surface high to drag one or two weaker fronts across Central Florida but I just think that the Long Wave pattern itself continues to reflect a pretty positive tilt thus leaving an overall broad-scale ridging over and east of Florida in the mid levels. That set-up would seem to imply a continued risk of severe weather for parts of Southern Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, and perhaps parts of the Panhandle across to Jacksonville prior to the energy of any significant passing short wave pulls northward and away. That could imply some decent precip over the Northern third of the state as a couple of these fronts drape across those areas, while leaving the Southeast in a more or less entrenched S.E. flow and mainly limited to morning/evening showers.

[boca]

I agree with Chaser1 with the progressive pattern with a positive NAO The ridge will not breakdown enough to change the pattern we are in now.

[psyclone]

The prospect of below normal temps in mid to late March is as appealing as it is likely. ..our friends at the CPC have us painted in blue for both the 6-10 and 8-14 day. Naturally we need to view this though the prism of normal....80 is probably below normal for south florida by latter March. ..nevertheless some pristine weather is likely on tap. Enjoy and make it count!

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Winter is over folks. Euro 12z has backed off on any cold. Gonna be a warm to hot next 10 days or so. The big storm system over the Midwest tracks way north of us. FV3 which is known for cold bias tries to make it colder here but I doubt it will happen. Get ready for a long hot summer and early start to hurricane season. Models show a subtropical system out over the central Atlantic over the next 10 days.

[psyclone]

Winter has been over since the failed arctic apocalypse back in late January....but we're still fair game for cooldowns (especially when we're slogging through a torch like this week). Here in the Bay area we've got low to mid 70's for highs by the weekend which would represent some rather refreshing weather should it happen. And unlike the recent past our extended outlooks for late month paint normalish to a touch below normal temps...which again would represent some phenomenal weather and a marked change from recent Spring temp regimes which have been persistently warmer if not much above normal. The swelter season isn't far off but it isn't here quite yet..

[chaser1]

Winter is over folks. Euro 12z has backed off on any cold. Gonna be a warm to hot next 10 days or so. The big storm system over the Midwest tracks way north of us. FV3 which is known for cold bias tries to make it colder here but I doubt it will happen. Get ready for a long hot summer and early start to hurricane season. Models show a subtropical system out over the central Atlantic over the next 10 days.

Yep, it just seems to me that both the GFS and EURO keep trying to tease us with significantly lower 500mb heights in the long range but the goal posts keep getting pushed back toward the end of their forecast cycles. Latest two runs of the EURO paint a deepening Gulf Low in phase with a strong short wave digging south into Florida. Then it tracks the deepening low right across South Florida with the backside gradient pushing nice cool northerly winds right down the State..... between 216 - 240 hours. Hey, i'm all for pleasant thoughts but I'm just not buying it. For the nearer term, there's still some serious cold air pooling yet to occur over the E. CONUS. Getting that trough to really dig south of Georgia enough to veer our mid levels more Northwesterly has been a tough feet lately. Heck, I'd be happy with the continued Westerly flow aloft if we could simply get some significant height falls and help drop night-time temps here in the Orlando area down to the mid 50's. This weekends projected front is forecast to cool North and Central Florida down a tad but I don't see it doing much in terms of cooling you folk in S. Florida much. Things can still change though......

[chaser1]

Winter has been over since the failed arctic apocalypse back in late January....

Best line of the week! So so true.

[AdamFirst]

Posted in the Global Model Runs thread in talking tropics, GFS and EURO both hinting as possible subtropical development in the day 8-10 range, with the EURO a bit more bullish. A situation that bears watching

[northjaxpro]

Getting a very heavy thunderstorm, with lots of lightning . This is so summer-like this evening, more like we would see in June or July. These late evening storms firing off after daytime heating and humidity in the air, and temps in the mid-80s earlier. Summer is really prematurely trying to start getting going.

I am hopeful that we will see a couple of cool downs later this month to help hold off the long, long onset of the heat and humidity for a little while longer. Some of you in the earlier posts this evening have pointed out.the long range models, which I saw in the models over the past weekend as well.

[arekkusu]

Last week:

Well, the storms on Sunday/Monday were a lot worse than I expected, especially in GA and AL. I have friends who go to FSU, and they said that everyone was freaking out when that confirmed tornado passed through.

I (as well as many other people who live in NE FL) was lucky enough to not experience any adverse weather myself. There were, however, many severe thunderstorms on the other side of the FL/GA border, specifically in the more central parts of southeast GA, and I think at least one tornado-warned storm actually produced a tornado around Douglas, GA.

However, I think that our luck has run out. This is why:

https://i.imgur.com/kUrIgjw.png

Yeah. Whenever I see something like this in the SPC's convective outlooks, it usually means nothing good.

It looks like the problems will be mostly north of Jax and Gainesville, but keep in mind that a Day 4 outlook with a 15% probability of severe weather (just like this one) corresponding to the outbreak that took place a few days ago didn't even include the majority of Georgia, including parts that were later assigned enhanced risk status.

Late, but thankfully, this didn't turn out as bad as I had expected it would.

Today, though, the weather ended up being a bit worse than what was anticipated. There was a relatively small marginal risk area over the panhandle, big bend, and parts of AL and GA, but a few severe thunderstorms with (apparently) large hail popped up in some odd parts of GA this afternoon as far away as in areas covered by NWS Jacksonville. Eventually, the storms made their way down to Jacksonville and the surrounding areas (those in Nassau and St. Johns Counties, like Bryceville, Callahan, and Ponte Vedra), but they were a lot weaker by then.

If I recall correctly, we're not due again for any rain until a cold front rolls in on Friday.

EDIT: northjaxpro (obviously) lives in the area, so he described what I just said. I live about 20-25 min from Jax in northeastern Clay County, but the storm missed us, and instead, hit neighboring St. Johns County before exiting into the Atlantic Ocean (where it is still causing problems as we speak).

[northjaxpro]

That is right. We will see rain chances on the increase across Northeast Florida this weekend and cooler with onshore flow with the passage of the front on Saturday morning.

Picked up about 3/4 of an inch of rain with that thunderstorm that quickly passed through north Jax where I live (near First Coast High School). Now, the storm is moving just off.the coast from Ponte Vedra and Vilano Beach. There is another batch of moderate rain starting again currently here at the home station. Looks like we will see close to an inch of rain total at least when it is said and done for the night.

[chaser1]

The EURO and GFS forecast models beginning to latch onto the Gulf Low to form in about 170 hours is continuing to move forward in time. Latest (6Z) GFS has it deepening in phase with the E. Conus 500mb trough just as it begins to approach S.W. Florida. Latest total period rainfall projections seem to suggest that most of the southern 2/3's of Florida should receive a minimum of 2" precip. Will be interesting to see if both models hold onto this feature, or in fact deepen it over subsequent model runs. Now, this in tandem with strong Southern Plains surface ridging could very well advect some cooler air all the way down the state if this verifies. Right now the GFS doesn't quite phase in any significant cooler air in conjunction with the deepening low E. of Florida as the EURO seems to want to do.

[psyclone]

It looks like we could have a pretty good rain event along with a protracted period of somewhat cooler/unsettled weather and that timeframe continues to reel in. The best heavy rain chances are finally weighted toward the southern peninsula which is great news considering we're getting late in the season for mid latitude forced rains down that way..

[chaser1]

I'm beginning to lose hope that i'll be burning logs in the 'ol fireplace this upcoming week. Forecast for Central Florida still calling for night-time lows in the mid to low 50's from early next week into Thursday night but i'm just not seeing it with each updating GFS forecast. Mid level support seems to be waning leaving a moist slightly cooler Northeast flow that will noticeably moderate day time temps largely in part to cloud cover. North Florida should still enjoy that extra nip in the air though. Most noteworthy is the nice spread of rain that the Southern half of Florida should receive over the next 5 or so days. Hopefully all of you guys down south will get at least a couple inches of rain. Nothing better to help stave off Everglades fires from starting up.

[Taffy]

I live in SW Florida. I am hoping for rain.