Texas Spring 2019

U.S. & Caribbean Weather Discussions and Severe Weather Events

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
Cerlin
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1182
Age: 23
Joined: Thu Dec 08, 2016 12:06 am
Location: Norman, OK

Re: Texas Spring 2019

#281 Postby Cerlin » Mon Mar 11, 2019 8:17 pm

Brent wrote:
bubba hotep wrote:The models trending away from a big event, both rainfall totals and svr wx, sucked the air out of my interest. This looks pretty run of the mill for most of the area.


Yeah not sure what happened but this storm is a far cry from what it looked like a few days ago. Nothing special now. Much like what happened Saturday

Hope this isnt a sign of the spring

It was a sign of the winter too. I think we can say most events will be 50-75% of what the models show a few days before.
1 likes   
Graduate Meteorology Student at the University of Oklahoma!
All opinions independent of employers and the university.

User avatar
cheezyWXguy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6108
Joined: Mon Feb 13, 2006 12:29 am
Location: Dallas, TX

Re: Texas Spring 2019

#282 Postby cheezyWXguy » Mon Mar 11, 2019 9:41 pm

Brent wrote:
bubba hotep wrote:The models trending away from a big event, both rainfall totals and svr wx, sucked the air out of my interest. This looks pretty run of the mill for most of the area.


Yeah not sure what happened but this storm is a far cry from what it looked like a few days ago. Nothing special now. Much like what happened Saturday

Hope this isnt a sign of the spring

It's not like the storm isn't as strong is it was forecast to be a few days ago, it's really more a timing/trajectory thing. FWD's AFD from the afternoon mentions SRH values of 500-600m2/s2 and a low level jet of 65kt on Wednesday morning. But that's the problem -- Wednesday morning. No instability. And even still, they are hesitant to write of tornadic potential along the line altogether. If you had the exact same storm 12 hours earlier/later, this event would be far more significant, and while I am a bit disappointed at what an "almost" this is, I'm not ready to say that this is how every event will play out this season.
3 likes   

User avatar
Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 22784
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

Re: Texas Spring 2019

#283 Postby Ntxw » Mon Mar 11, 2019 9:54 pm

The quality of moisture/quality return isn't ideal either. I think even if timing was good, we'd still have some struggles. It's been a very cold start to March. Being in the 50s before a deep storm isn't going to cut it. You need a stout boundary between dry, stable air and rich, warm, moist laden demarcation to fire the good stuff. Generally the forcing from the system itself is best for MCS events which we'll see tonight.

In other news the overall guidance is nearly in unison calling for a second year El Nino, possibly stronger than the first one. There is usually a heavy spring barrier with poor skill, but there is low spread this go around.

Image
4 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

  Help support Storm2K!
Help Support Storm2K

Yukon Cornelius
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1798
Age: 41
Joined: Thu Dec 20, 2012 9:23 pm
Location: Dean, TX/Westcliffe, CO

Re: Texas Spring 2019

#284 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Mon Mar 11, 2019 10:58 pm

Have picked up 1.34” since midnight last night with what looks to be more heading this way.
3 likes   
#neversummer

User avatar
ThunderSleetDreams
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1477
Age: 43
Joined: Tue Dec 20, 2011 4:42 pm
Location: S of Weimar, TX

Re: Texas Spring 2019

#285 Postby ThunderSleetDreams » Tue Mar 12, 2019 10:51 am

Ntxw wrote:The quality of moisture/quality return isn't ideal either. I think even if timing was good, we'd still have some struggles. It's been a very cold start to March. Being in the 50s before a deep storm isn't going to cut it. You need a stout boundary between dry, stable air and rich, warm, moist laden demarcation to fire the good stuff. Generally the forcing from the system itself is best for MCS events which we'll see tonight.

In other news the overall guidance is nearly in unison calling for a second year El Nino, possibly stronger than the first one. There is usually a heavy spring barrier with poor skill, but there is low spread this go around.

https://images2.imgbox.com/e9/c4/mIDlmjsR_o.jpg



As long as 1+2 isn’t in the 1.5 plus range we should be good.
1 likes   
#NeverSummer

I hibernate when it gets above 75 degrees!

User avatar
Cerlin
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1182
Age: 23
Joined: Thu Dec 08, 2016 12:06 am
Location: Norman, OK

Re: Texas Spring 2019

#286 Postby Cerlin » Tue Mar 12, 2019 11:27 am

Really nice steady hard rain right now. Loving the sounds of the drops hitting the roof.
1 likes   
Graduate Meteorology Student at the University of Oklahoma!
All opinions independent of employers and the university.

Lagreeneyes03
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 558
Joined: Mon Dec 09, 2013 10:53 am
Location: Luxurious Lake Grapevine

Re: Texas Spring 2019

#287 Postby Lagreeneyes03 » Tue Mar 12, 2019 1:25 pm

Cerlin wrote:Really nice steady hard rain right now. Loving the sounds of the drops hitting the roof.



Personally, I'm so over the rain. My yard hasn't dried out for more than a day in months and now the grass is starting to get long, but I can't cut it because it's wet. It takes a few days to dry so not to ruin the mower, and then it rains again. I need about 2 weeks of dry cloudless sunny days.
0 likes   
I'm a Princess, not a forecaster.

User avatar
cheezyWXguy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6108
Joined: Mon Feb 13, 2006 12:29 am
Location: Dallas, TX

Re: Texas Spring 2019

#288 Postby cheezyWXguy » Tue Mar 12, 2019 1:37 pm

HRRR isn't showing much weakening of the line as it enters the DFW area. Also shows winds at 70kts 1km above the ground. Correct me if I'm wrong, but it doesn't seem like it would take much to bring strong winds down to the surface in an event like this, despite the lack of surface instability in the area.
2 likes   

User avatar
Cerlin
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1182
Age: 23
Joined: Thu Dec 08, 2016 12:06 am
Location: Norman, OK

Re: Texas Spring 2019

#289 Postby Cerlin » Tue Mar 12, 2019 1:37 pm

Lagreeneyes03 wrote:
Cerlin wrote:Really nice steady hard rain right now. Loving the sounds of the drops hitting the roof.



Personally, I'm so over the rain. My yard hasn't dried out for more than a day in months and now the grass is starting to get long, but I can't cut it because it's wet. It takes a few days to dry so not to ruin the mower, and then it rains again. I need about 2 weeks of dry cloudless sunny days.

The forecast for the latter half of this week after this rain event into next looks dry and sunny, so your yard will more than likely be able to dry out a bit before our wet pattern resumes.
0 likes   
Graduate Meteorology Student at the University of Oklahoma!
All opinions independent of employers and the university.

User avatar
bubba hotep
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5837
Joined: Wed Dec 28, 2016 1:00 am
Location: Collin County Texas

Re: Texas Spring 2019

#290 Postby bubba hotep » Tue Mar 12, 2019 2:05 pm

cheezyWXguy wrote:HRRR isn't showing much weakening of the line as it enters the DFW area. Also shows winds at 70kts 1km above the ground. Correct me if I'm wrong, but it doesn't seem like it would take much to bring strong winds down to the surface in an event like this, despite the lack of surface instability in the area.


These systems often arrive a couple of hours earlier than models show, that should help the line hold together a bit more.
1 likes   
Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.

Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38088
Age: 36
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:

Re: Texas Spring 2019

#291 Postby Brent » Tue Mar 12, 2019 4:09 pm

Lagreeneyes03 wrote:
Cerlin wrote:Really nice steady hard rain right now. Loving the sounds of the drops hitting the roof.



Personally, I'm so over the rain. My yard hasn't dried out for more than a day in months and now the grass is starting to get long, but I can't cut it because it's wet. It takes a few days to dry so not to ruin the mower, and then it rains again. I need about 2 weeks of dry cloudless sunny days.


What's weird is it hasnt even rained that much really
1 likes   
#neversummer

weatherdude1108
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4228
Joined: Tue Dec 13, 2011 1:04 pm
Location: Northwest Austin/Cedar Park, TX

Re: Texas Spring 2019

#292 Postby weatherdude1108 » Tue Mar 12, 2019 4:16 pm

EWX Discussion:

000
FXUS64 KEWX 122059
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
359 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2019

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night)...
Upper low over Baja region will be moving east and then northeast
across the southern plains over the next 24 hours. Water vapor
imagery shows strong diffluence ahead of the system and associated
lift is already occurring over northern Mexico. As this system
approaches, our cwa has transitioned to a warm sector, bringing the
needed instability to support convection later tonight.

A foggy start of the day has improved drastically as the warm front
pushed north through all the cwa and this unstable and breezy
atmosphere will remain in place overnight. Will continue small pop
for the late afternoon and evening for showers, and maybe isolated TS
out west. A few of the HRRR runs are starting to show some pre-
squall line sh/ts come across the Rio Grande near DRT in the late
evening hours. Will have to watch for severe threat with this
activity before the forecast squall line associated with the pacific
front/dry line pushes into the CWA after midnight. Looks like the far
western Edwards Plateau will be under the threat of strong/severe
storms between midnight to 3AM...Hill Country 3-6 AM...pushing into
the I-35 corridor around morning rush hour...6-10 AM, and 8 AM-noon
east of I-35, and along I-10.
Once the line passes AUS/SAT...mid the
late morning clearing with the POP ending quickly west to east as
large dry slot moves in from the SW and wraps into a surface low over
the TX/OK panhandles. Severe parameters are best out west, and with
the storms coming into AUS/SAT region around dawn which is
historically the most stable time of the day, widespread severe
weather is not expected over our eastern areas.

Lower humidities behind this system and some gusty west winds will
bring some near critical fire conditions to the far west and Rio
Grande Plains both Wed and Thu. With the downsloping west winds on
Wednesday, temps will still warn into the mid 70s to lower 80s.
Mainly 50s Wed night.

&&

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
As we get into Thursday, the upper low and surface low
will be moving east into the upper MS valley with cool air filtering
down into Texas on the back side. Will see an associated cool down
with respect to day and night temps...highs mainly in the 60s and
lows in the 40s.
A upper zonal flow will keep pop out of the
extended forecast. Long range models do show an upper low coming into
the southern Rockies but with surface ridging still in place, dont
expect enough moisture return to lead to any significant pop...just
an increase in clouds. A slow warmup may be in store early next week
but the models are keeping a stubborn surface ridge axis over the
state not allowing for deeper southerly flow until beyond the 7 day
forecast period.
0 likes   
The preceding post is NOT an official forecast, and should not be used as such. It is only the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
Haris
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1810
Joined: Mon Nov 27, 2017 8:19 pm
Location: ( Bee Cave) West Austin, Texas

Re: Texas Spring 2019

#293 Postby Haris » Tue Mar 12, 2019 5:08 pm

Lagreeneyes03 wrote:
Cerlin wrote:Really nice steady hard rain right now. Loving the sounds of the drops hitting the roof.



Personally, I'm so over the rain. My yard hasn't dried out for more than a day in months and now the grass is starting to get long, but I can't cut it because it's wet. It takes a few days to dry so not to ruin the mower, and then it rains again. I need about 2 weeks of dry cloudless sunny days.



Ummm no thank you. We are on the verge of drought down here, at least. The wetter the spring, the better chance for a slightly cooler summer.
5 likes   
Weather geek and a storm spotter in West Austin. Not a degreed meteorologist. Big snow fan. Love rain and cold! Despise heat!

Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38088
Age: 36
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:

Re: Texas Spring 2019

#294 Postby Brent » Tue Mar 12, 2019 11:25 pm

This wind is pretty decent already just heard some loud noise in the backyard
2 likes   
#neversummer

User avatar
bubba hotep
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5837
Joined: Wed Dec 28, 2016 1:00 am
Location: Collin County Texas

Re: Texas Spring 2019

#295 Postby bubba hotep » Tue Mar 12, 2019 11:28 pm

Brent wrote:This wind is pretty decent already just heard some loud noise in the backyard


Was just coming to post that, sounds like it's kicking out there. It looks like we could see some 70+ mph gust with the line of storms later.
2 likes   
Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.

Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38088
Age: 36
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:

Re: Texas Spring 2019

#296 Postby Brent » Tue Mar 12, 2019 11:29 pm

Already gusts to 44 mph at DFW

This aint even the peak yet
1 likes   
#neversummer

User avatar
TheProfessor
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 3506
Age: 28
Joined: Tue Dec 03, 2013 10:56 am
Location: Wichita, Kansas

Re: Texas Spring 2019

#297 Postby TheProfessor » Tue Mar 12, 2019 11:33 pm

We had some 64 mph gusts a few weeks ago here, it can definitely sound scary, especially when you have headphones on and still hear the wind.
0 likes   
An alumnus of The Ohio State University.

Your local National Weather Service office is your best source for weather information.

User avatar
Haris
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1810
Joined: Mon Nov 27, 2017 8:19 pm
Location: ( Bee Cave) West Austin, Texas

Re: Texas Spring 2019

#298 Postby Haris » Tue Mar 12, 2019 11:51 pm

HRRR not initializing the current storms well. 3K doing a good job. I'd use that over HRRR ATM IMO
1 likes   
Weather geek and a storm spotter in West Austin. Not a degreed meteorologist. Big snow fan. Love rain and cold! Despise heat!

User avatar
Cerlin
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1182
Age: 23
Joined: Thu Dec 08, 2016 12:06 am
Location: Norman, OK

Re: Texas Spring 2019

#299 Postby Cerlin » Wed Mar 13, 2019 4:41 am

Sweet sound of thunder!!!
2 likes   
Graduate Meteorology Student at the University of Oklahoma!
All opinions independent of employers and the university.

User avatar
EnnisTx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 896
Joined: Sat Dec 26, 2015 4:06 pm
Location: Albany, Texas
Contact:

Re: Texas Spring 2019

#300 Postby EnnisTx » Wed Mar 13, 2019 5:01 am

Sirens going off in Arlington. I had a gust of 76 mph.
DFW reports a gust to 78 mph.
2 likes   


Return to “USA & Caribbean Weather”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: cajungal, utpmg and 8 guests