Texas Spring 2019

[Cpv17]

12z GFS has frozen precip all the way down to the coast in the Carolinas on March 26th/27th lol that’s wild!!

[weatherdude1108]

00z Euro shifted the system north... very little rain across Texas over the next 10 days.

Like I said a few days ago, it could be a dry spring around here.

Too early to say that. Still have all of April & May.

But yea, so far, it's been as crappy as winter. The models have been nothing but terrible.

This is depressing. I'm really tired of these 20% humidity days, drying out everything. Pollen is being carried everywhere in the dry air with the slightest breeze from the budding trees. Is there a northwest flow going on? The NWS hasn't said anything about it. This low humidity for days on end is definitely not the norm.

[wxman57]

I will make a bold prediction that I will be experiencing highs in the mid to upper 90s by the second week of April.

[Portastorm]

I will make a bold prediction that I will be experiencing highs in the mid to upper 90s by the second week of April.

You forgot to mention the part where you will be experiencing these temperatures in South America!

[wxman57]

I will make a bold prediction that I will be experiencing highs in the mid to upper 90s by the second week of April.

You forgot to mention the part where you will be experiencing these temperatures in South America!

Oh, yeah, I'll be in Rio de Janeiro. Details, details...

[DonWrk]

WPC went from a 2 incher to now around half an inch.

[weatherdude1108]

Hmmm. I'm getting a little concerned about this dry streak (lack of meaningful rainfall) we can't seem to break, as the temperatures creep up and vegetation gets growing.

[rwfromkansas]

Goes to show that the CPC “only ENSO matters” seasonal forecasts are flawed. Cough cough

[gpsnowman]

I would give it some time. Let March end and the cool dry air should be replaced by humid air and storm chances in April. This weekend still looks soggy for DFW and then some drier air moves in again next week. I for one am still enjoying the 60's and 70's with dry air. The humid air will arrive before we know it leading to some t-storms. Until then enjoy this beautiful stretch of weather we are in!!!

[South Texas Storms]

Believe me guys...I'm pretty frustrated too about the lack of rain around here. I really don't like how the weekend storm system has trended north once again.

However, I think we need to stay patient as the pattern will likely become more active around here as we head into April. The long-range signals continue to look good for April and May.

[bubba hotep]

Euro EPS looks down right cold as Texas rolls into April. In fact, the Control run has a winter storm moving across the state lol

[Brent]

Euro EPS looks down right cold as Texas rolls into April. In fact, the Control run has a winter storm moving across the state lol

Yeah right

I would give it some time. Let March end and the cool dry air should be replaced by humid air and storm chances in April. This weekend still looks soggy for DFW and then some drier air moves in again next week. I for one am still enjoying the 60's and 70's with dry air. The humid air will arrive before we know it leading to some t-storms. Until then enjoy this beautiful stretch of weather we are in!!!

Yeah I'm really loving this weather

I'm sure at some point we'll get stormy but lets savior every moment of this because we all know summer and 95+ daily is coming

[weatherdude1108]

Believe me guys...I'm pretty frustrated too about the lack of rain around here. I really don't like how the weekend storm system has trended north once again.

However, I think we need to stay patient as the pattern will likely become more active around here as we head into April. The long-range signals continue to look good for April and May.

Yeah, we might have a wet and stormy May (memories of May 2015). Not sure what March 2015 was like here(?). Super Nino going on at that time. Probably not best analog year, but anyway.

[weatherdude1108]

On this date on March 19, 2015:

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
505 AM CDT THU MAR 19 2015

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-192015-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LLANO...BURNET...GEORGETOWN...DEL RIO...
ROCKSPRINGS...LEAKEY...KERRVILLE...BANDERA...FREDERICKSBURG...
BOERNE...BLANCO...SAN MARCOS...AUSTIN...BASTROP...GIDDINGS...
BRACKETTVILLE...UVALDE...HONDO...SAN ANTONIO...NEW BRAUNFELS...
SEGUIN...LOCKHART...LA GRANGE...EAGLE PASS...CRYSTAL CITY...
PEARSALL...PLEASANTON...FLORESVILLE...KARNES CITY...GONZALES...
CUERO...HALLETTSVILLE...CARRIZO SPRINGS
505 AM CDT THU MAR 19 2015

...THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN INCREASING FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...

A COMBINATION OF WEATHER SYSTEMS...INCLUDING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND SURFACE COLD FRONT...WILL INTERACT WITH AN UNSEASONABLY MOIST
AIRMASS TO GENERATE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE THREAT OF HEAVY
RAINS CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY ACROSS
NEARLY ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WITH MODERATE RAINS CONTINUING
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE MOST INTENSE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN INCREASED WITH
AVERAGE TOTALS NOW AT 2 TO 5 INCHES AND ISOLATED TOTALS OF 6 TO 8
INCHES. SOILS ARE FAIRLY SATURATED. RUNOFF MAY BECOME RAPID AND
CAUSE FLOODING PROBLEMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS AREAS WHERE SOME HEAVY
RAINS HAVE OCCURRED RECENTLY. AT THIS TIME...THE GREATEST THREAT
OF FLOODING WILL BE IN URBAN AREAS AND ALONG TO EAST OF THE I-35
CORRIDOR AND ESCARPMENT AREAS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL LIKELY BE
ISSUED IN LATER FORECASTS FOR AT LEAST PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

THOSE RESIDING IN OR VISITING SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS SHOULD MONITOR
THE FORECAST FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION AND UPDATES REGARDING THIS
POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING EVENT. PLEASE MONITOR THE
WEATHER CONDITIONS CLOSELY AND BE PREPARED TO ENCOUNTER TRAVEL
IMPACTS SHOULD FLOODING OCCUR IN YOUR AREA.

$$

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/graphicast.php?site=ewx&gc=7

viewtopic.php?f=24&t=117086&start=100

[JDawg512]

I hate to say it but the rest of this month is not looking good. Probably no birthday rain for me... These stagnate patterns are hard change so I'm not suprised about the bulk of the past few systems that shifted north. Let's see how the next 3 weeks turn out. Will we see a shift south of the storm track or an active subtropical jet or will the storm path continue to stagnate? I have my suspicions but will sit back and wait as I contemplate what kind of fun I should have once the rain starts falling.

[dhweather]

April FOOLS

[Cpv17]

Man, what a boring weather pattern we’re in

[Brent]

We had fropa and theres a slight chill in the air now

First day of spring ftw

[Haris]

Man, what a boring weather pattern we’re in

So boring, that I was greatly amused to see the plume of smoke from the fire in Houston 2 days ago. ! lmao

[weatherdude1108]

000
FXUS64 KEWX 201956
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
256 PM CDT Wed Mar 20 2019

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night)...
A weak front currently draped across Central Texas will make it`s way
through our CWA. With limited moisture, chances for showers with this
front are limited. Areas that do get precipitation along the front
will only see light amounts. Cooler, drier airmass will be ushered in
behind front with northerly winds. The drier airmass will help clear
skies allowing for a warm up to near normal for Thursday. By
Thursday afternoon, winds switch back around to become more
southeasterly.

&&

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Another upper level system approaches from the northwest. As the jet
digs into the base of this trough, moving it eastward bringing
chances for showers and thunder beginning Friday night and into
Saturday. Best chances for rain will be for areas out west on Friday,
then as the system progresses, areas west of I-35 and the Hill
Country. A cold front and secondary boundary move through Sunday and
Monday clearing the area. By Monday Afternoon, mostly clear skies
and near normal temperatures can be expected through the remainder of
the period.