I think one of the more intriguing things about this potential system (of course, any possible organized system in the South Atlantic is impressive in its own right) is that this might be one of the most conventional tropical formation events that we've seen in the basin. Unlike storms like Anita forming out of a former extratropical cyclone or even Catarina which developed within the context of an upper trough, this system seems oddly "normal" in the context of how tropical cyclones form.
Going off of where the models develop the system, this might be the most equatorial organized tropical/subtropical system in the South Atlantic since the Angola storm of 1991. The waters off the Brazilian coast are anomalously warm, around 28C—definitely warm enough to support tropical cyclogenesis—and as a whole these are about 1-2C above average. The models develop convection in light upper-level winds under the current anticyclone that's extended from Peru to the South Atlantic, with no odd upper-level quirks or gimmicks that often kickstart the formation of storms in odd areas like the Mediterranean or the high Pacific and Atlantic latitudes. The system's formation within a somewhat stationary tropical zone of confluence actually feels a lot like what you often see in the South Pacific with the monsoon trough. When we look at the
vortex areal average model sounding from the GFS, these parameters come together in a manner that we usually expect when we discuss tropical development in general: low shear across the vertical column, a stout moisture profile, light upper-level winds, and a good amount of CAPE to get storms firing with the warm waters below. Confirming these tropical suspicions,
the(GFS) phase(UKMET) diagrams(FV3) seem to initiate formation or organize the system as a deep warm core cyclone.
Think the intensity forecast will be more clear when the final disturbance starts taking shape and we can more clearly pinpoint the storm's origin, but needless to say this will be a very interesting system to watch, especially given the abnormally aligned model consensus.