Texas Spring 2019

[weatherdude1108]

Looks like some instability in the area this evening.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
701 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2019

.UPDATE...
Quick update to pull mention of isolated showers and thunderstorms
farther eastward towards Central Texas/the Interstate 35 corridor.
Increasing vorticity advection associated with a weak shortwave
trough over southwest Texas has allowed for convection to spread
farther east across the Hill Country early this evening. Short term
guidance appears to be struggling with how well this activity will
maintain itself. Given the expected eastward movement of the wave and
deeper moisture (precipitable water values in excess of one inch)
nosing across the region, expect isolated showers and thunderstorms
to linger across portions of the Edwards Plateau, Hill Country, and
drift towards I-35 into the late evening hours. SPC Mesoanalysis
shows mid-level lapse rates in excess of 8 C/km west of I-35. This
will allow a sporadic lightning threat and the potential for possibly
some small hail to linger early this evening across the Hill
Country.

Severe Thunderstorm Warning
Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
813 PM CDT THU MAR 28 2019

TXC103-371-475-290145-
/O.CON.KMAF.SV.W.0014.000000T0000Z-190329T0145Z/
Pecos TX-Ward TX-Crane TX-
813 PM CDT THU MAR 28 2019

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 845 PM CDT
FOR NORTH CENTRAL PECOS...SOUTHEASTERN WARD AND WEST CENTRAL CRANE
COUNTIES...

At 812 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 8 miles southeast
of Grandfalls, or 23 miles southeast of Monahans, moving east at 10
mph. A trained spotter south-southeast of Grandfalls reported golf
ball sized hail around 810 PM CDT.

HAZARD...Golf ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Trained weather spotters.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail
damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind
damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Imperial Reservoir and Imperial.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3126 10287 3140 10276 3135 10255 3116 10269
TIME...MOT...LOC 0112Z 289DEG 9KT 3128 10273

HAIL...1.75IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

[Haris]

The latest Euro Weeklies run is one of the wettest I've seen for TX. I'm so ready to track storms again!

[CaptinCrunch]

"long-range weather forecasts point toward a change in the weather pattern beginning in"

We heard this all winter long, saw the models and all it's pretty snow filled colors, talked about change after change after change, only for most of it vanish as said dates arrived. I'm convinced that global weather patterns have altered ever so slightly that our current models and their algorithmic calculations are off, which leads to forecast being off.

This change started a few years ago, and IMO long range forecast models, and even some of the short range models just haven't produced.

[weatherdude1108]

"long-range weather forecasts point toward a change in the weather pattern beginning in"

We heard this all winter long, saw the models and all it's pretty snow filled colors, talked about change after change after change, only for most of it vanish as said dates arrived. I'm convinced that global weather patterns have altered ever so slightly that our current models and their algorithmic calculations are off, which leads to forecast being off.

This change started a few years ago, and IMO long range forecast models, and even some of the short range models just haven't produced.

As much as I don't want to believe it, I think I might agree.

[Ntxw]

Today is another example of why we have been lacking moisture for rains. Despite getting up into the 70s, dewpoints remained in the 50s as it has been most of the week (40s/50s). Pwats have been less than par. Still no tropical connection/air-mass to juice things up. Cold front comes through tomorrow and the weekend will be much cooler but still largely moisture starved.

The cool/cold continental air mass that has been plaguing the Northern Plains -> extension into the southern plains, mostly arid but has guaranteed yet another below normal month!

[Haris]

Today is another example of why we have been lacking moisture for rains. Despite getting up into the 70s, dewpoints remained in the 50s as it has been most of the week (40s/50s). Pwats have been less than par. Still no tropical connection/air-mass to juice things up. Cold front comes through tomorrow and the weekend will be much cooler but still largely moisture starved.

The cool/cold continental air mass that has been plaguing the Northern Plains -> extension into the southern plains, mostly arid but has guaranteed yet another below normal month!

Isnt it too early to assume that April will be below normal?

[Cpv17]

Euro & GFS are both looking good!

[Yukon Cornelius]

Pretty chilly and really windy this morning. Windchill in the lower 30s. Looks like a freeze is on tap for tonight.

[gpsnowman]

Pretty chilly and really windy this morning. Windchill in the lower 30s. Looks like a freeze is on tap for tonight.

Upper 30's down here in DFW in what I imagine will be the last real cold front of this season. Stranger things have happened though. In early May a few years back a cold front brought some serious unseasonable cold air to the region. Maybe 2013 or 2014.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Pretty chilly and really windy this morning. Windchill in the lower 30s. Looks like a freeze is on tap for tonight.

Upper 30's down here in DFW in what I imagine will be the last real cold front of this season. Stranger things have happened though. In early May a few years back a cold front brought some serious unseasonable cold air to the region. Maybe 2013 or 2014.

I remember that. I think it was back to back nights of mid 20s up here if I remember right. Maybe it was only one night.

[Brent]

FWD AFD for April 1st

Strengthening
ascent and top-down moistening should eventually result in
light rain showers on Monday, mainly south of I-20 where the
better forcing and slightly higher moisture will be. Atmospheric
profiles indicate that a low chance of a rain-snow mix will occur
on Monday as the lowest heights pass overhead

[Ntxw]

50F at DFW with strong north winds, feels like 40F. Where did Spring Go? Still hasn't come.

[Haris]

guidance / ensembling support is in fairly excellent agreement on a potent storm system a week out.

Now, a whole 7 days. Thats the terrible part. Fingers crossed. It does 'appear' it'll get wetter. But I still am very hesitant.

[Texas Snowman]

50F at DFW with strong north winds, feels like 40F. Where did Spring Go? Still hasn't come.

Good bicycle riding weather...

[Haris]

[bubba hotep]

Hmmm... Fool me once, fool me twice, fool me?? But things do look to turn active across Texas around April 4th.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Made it down to 29 this morning.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

45 right now in Corpus with a cold rain.

Sounds about right. Spring is winter and winter is spring.

[1900hurricane]

This weather turns me into Grumpy Cat.

[Ralph's Weather]

Made it down to 32 here. Very likely to be the last freeze here.