Texas Spring 2019

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1900hurricane
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Re: Texas Spring 2019

#621 Postby 1900hurricane » Tue Apr 09, 2019 1:54 pm

The cap, or Elevated Mixed Layer (EML) is actually just the layer beginning at the surface from higher terrain that is advected, or blown over a region with lower altitude. Because of surface heating and mixing that occurs at the direr higher elevations, this layer is usually warmer that the layer immediately below it and suppresses convection to a point. However, if the surface layer below this EML can become warm and moist enough in the presence of some sort of convective trigger, the cap can be broken, and the steep lapse rates from the EML results in explosive thunderstorm development. Cap strength can be determined by location and state of drought from the higher elevations that the EML originates from, so an EML from further south or from somewhere in drought would be stronger.

Perhaps the best example of EML is actually from May 1999. In my loop below, the first sounding is from the early evening of May 2nd in Albuquerque, NM. Note the steep lapse rates from the very well mixed boundary layer. The next image follows the wind barbs in the EML east to Amarillo. This sounding is from the morning of the next day, May 3rd. A cooler morning temperature with a higher dewpoint can be seen at the surface, but the EML just above that remains very well intact. The last image in the loop continues further east, from Norman that same evening. A warm moist layer can be seen below the EML, and in the presence of a convective trigger (in this case a dryline), some storms did manage to explosively develop. In fact, the weather balloon for this sounding was probably struck down by lightning in the anvil of a supercell approaching the Oklahoma City area while producing an F5 tornado. The main takeaway is that across all three soundings, the EML between 600-800 mb remains very well preserved.

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Re: Texas Spring 2019

#622 Postby Haris » Tue Apr 09, 2019 1:59 pm

Cpv17 wrote:Next couple weeks looks pretty dry for most of Texas.



1/2" - 1" of rain for portions of Central and E TX sat. 1-2" in NTX.
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Re: Texas Spring 2019

#623 Postby weatherdude1108 » Tue Apr 09, 2019 2:48 pm

Haris wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:Next couple weeks looks pretty dry for most of Texas.



1/2" - 1" of rain for portions of Central and E TX sat. 1-2" in NTX.


It would be great if we could get these weekly 0.5 to 1-inchers throughout the Spring and Summer. It's in a dream world, I know. :P
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Re: Texas Spring 2019

#624 Postby weatherdude1108 » Tue Apr 09, 2019 2:57 pm

Interesting write-up I found regarding rain events and different soil profiles responses to them. It's from 2011, but still applicable. Nothing has changed with respect to the science, although man-made impervious cover kind of messes up the natural runoff/infiltration factors.

https://aggie-horticulture.tamu.edu/ear ... ain-event/
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Re: Texas Spring 2019

#625 Postby Ntxw » Tue Apr 09, 2019 3:00 pm

weatherdude1108 wrote:Interesting write-up I found regarding rain events and different soil profiles responses to them. It's from 2011, but still applicable. Nothing has changed with respect to the science, although man-made impervious cover kind of messes up the natural runoff/infiltration factors.

https://aggie-horticulture.tamu.edu/ear ... ain-event/


Some interesting thoughts. Many of us claim cracks in soils after short period of dry spells even after record wet periods. Runoff from concrete and man made materials ruins a lot of the deep filtration of water into natural soils. That and growing not native grass/vegetation eats up more water than native flora.
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Re: Texas Spring 2019

#626 Postby CaptinCrunch » Tue Apr 09, 2019 3:03 pm

Saturday - Showers, mainly after 8am. High near 57. Northeast wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. :roll:

We`ve been advertising this system as generally a rain
maker for most of the region with little threat for severe weather,
but the latest ECMWF guidance features a more compact upper trough
which digs a littler farther south. This results in a better
fetch of moist southerly flow and a better defined surface low
somewhere in the vicinity of Lampasas by sunrise Saturday. A well
defined warm sector featuring mid/upper 60s dewpoints would spread
north into parts of our area during the morning hours based on
this latest guidance. Modest instability and favorable deep layer
shear profiles (~60 kt 0-6km) would be more than sufficient to
support organized convection along with a severe weather threat.
We`ll continue to monitor this closely over the coming days as
several of the EC and GFS ensemble members also feature a more
robust warm sector making into our southeast counties on Saturday
morning.

Highest rain chances will be during the day Saturday with
precipitation ending from west to east through the evening. We`ll
hold high temperatures down on Saturday ranging from the lower
50s in the north to lower 60s in the south, although as mentioned
above, if a warm sector can advance northward, these highs will
need to be raised by about 10 degrees. Cool high pressure will
build into the region on Sunday with temperatures remaining in the
60s and warming into the 70s and 80s for the early part of next
week.
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Re: Texas Spring 2019

#627 Postby 1900hurricane » Tue Apr 09, 2019 5:39 pm

I'm seeing a few 99ºF temps along the Rio Grande. I wonder if anyone managed to hit 100ºF today.

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Re: Texas Spring 2019

#628 Postby 1900hurricane » Tue Apr 09, 2019 6:04 pm

Also want to mention what a nice day out it is today. We don't get these moderately warm cloud free days too often. The humidity is even alright, not too low either. Its a great day to be outside and enjoy the sun on your skin for sure!
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Re: Texas Spring 2019

#629 Postby Cpv17 » Tue Apr 09, 2019 6:44 pm

Haris wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:Next couple weeks looks pretty dry for most of Texas.



1/2" - 1" of rain for portions of Central and E TX sat. 1-2" in NTX.


Well both the Euro and GFS only give me about half an inch for the next couple weeks. NE quadrant of the state looks to be the big winner once again.
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Re: Texas Spring 2019

#630 Postby Brent » Tue Apr 09, 2019 7:01 pm

I miss winter
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Re: Texas Spring 2019

#631 Postby 1900hurricane » Tue Apr 09, 2019 7:29 pm

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Re: Texas Spring 2019

#632 Postby Ntxw » Tue Apr 09, 2019 7:37 pm

Basically 90 today, same tomorrow. Can't wait for the cooler air end of the week to give AC a break...however the cooler days are slowly going to lose.
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Re: Texas Spring 2019

#633 Postby Brent » Tue Apr 09, 2019 10:18 pm

Ntxw wrote:Basically 90 today, same tomorrow. Can't wait for the cooler air end of the week to give AC a break...however the cooler days are slowly going to lose.


Yeah wont be long sadly til we'll be wishing it was only 90
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Re: Texas Spring 2019

#634 Postby weatherdude1108 » Tue Apr 09, 2019 10:23 pm

Ntxw wrote:Basically 90 today, same tomorrow. Can't wait for the cooler air end of the week to give AC a break...however the cooler days are slowly going to lose.


"Like sands through the hourglass, so are the Days of Our Lives" , in Tejas. :cheesy:

https://youtu.be/Og7-6YubuS4
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Re: Texas Spring 2019

#635 Postby ThunderSleetDreams » Wed Apr 10, 2019 8:23 am

Yukon Cornelius wrote:
ThunderSleetDreams wrote:
Yukon Cornelius wrote:0.43” of rain this weekend. We need more but with it comes the plagues of gnats. This question is more for the people that live out in the country. Every time outside of winter when it rains do y’all experience the billions of biting gnats? I thought the mosquitoes were bad during wet stretches but the gnats are 10x worse than mosquitos ever are. It gets so bad that we have to wear netted face masks outside during chores.



Spartan Mosquito Tubes. Get a few. They work beautifully.

Are they for gnats as well? How many for 1200 acres? :lol:


They will take care of any flying insect. We have 155 acres and one box covers 2 acres. I have them placed to cover 10 acres around the house then around our pond and creek.
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Re: Texas Spring 2019

#636 Postby weatherdude1108 » Wed Apr 10, 2019 8:25 am

I thought this was interesting. The SPC discussion for today mentioned an "anomalously warm capping-layer conditions" and an all-time record set at ABQ. We mentioned capping yesterday in this thread. How coincidental. :wink:

The organized severe threat appears fairly narrowly focused, though
hail potential from elevated convection may spread/expand
northeastward over parts of eastern NE to western IA tonight as the
LLJ transports increasing moisture above the surface. Farther
south, along and east of the dryline, a pronounced EML with a strong
basal inversion, atop an immature return-flow air mass with weak
moisture, should forbid surface-based storm initiation through the
period. Looking upstream, anomalously warm capping-layer conditions
have developed, with a pronounced 700-mb thermal ridge evident over
the southern Rockies region in last night's 00Z chart analysis.
Along that warm axis, the 12 deg C reading at ABQ set an all-time
record for 10 April/00Z, and 12.2 deg C essentially tied its record.


https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
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Re: Texas Spring 2019

#637 Postby vbhoutex » Wed Apr 10, 2019 9:51 am

ThunderSleetDreams wrote:
Yukon Cornelius wrote:
ThunderSleetDreams wrote:

Spartan Mosquito Tubes. Get a few. They work beautifully.

Are they for gnats as well? How many for 1200 acres? :lol:


They will take care of any flying insect. We have 155 acres and one box covers 2 acres. I have them placed to cover 10 acres around the house then around our pond and creek.

I live in the city as opposed to in the country. I use them also. I have a tube in the front yard and the backyard. They work well for us and I figure the extra coverage helps our neighbors. We also use dunks in our tiny pond in the back.
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Re: Texas Spring 2019

#638 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Wed Apr 10, 2019 10:12 am

ThunderSleetDreams wrote:
Yukon Cornelius wrote:
ThunderSleetDreams wrote:

Spartan Mosquito Tubes. Get a few. They work beautifully.

Are they for gnats as well? How many for 1200 acres? :lol:


They will take care of any flying insect. We have 155 acres and one box covers 2 acres. I have them placed to cover 10 acres around the house then around our pond and creek.

That’s awesome. Thanks man, I appreciate it. I’ll be picking up some.
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Re: Texas Spring 2019

#639 Postby Haris » Wed Apr 10, 2019 11:00 am

IT sucks that this low will take such a southern track but still give the S half of the state, nothing. Why?


Edit:
Well... lol euro now shows 1.6”
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Re: Texas Spring 2019

#640 Postby funster » Wed Apr 10, 2019 1:46 pm

Cat 5 allergy day today :-O Hoping for some Saturday rain.
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