Texas Spring 2019

[gpsnowman]

Two fatalities reported near Pollok. Two children, ages 3 and 8, were killed after a tree fell on the vehicle they were traveling in.

This is just awful news. Goes to show that the hobby we all follow can be deadly. Mother Nature is a spectacle to behold but her danger is all too real unfortunately.

[ravyrn]

TX21 near Weches, TX.

[Yukon Cornelius]

With the rain tapering off I picked up 3.45” with temps in the upper 30s/low 40s all day.

[bubba hotep]

Next Wednesday looks like a good chance for storms across a good portion of Eastern Texas. One thing to watch will be the timing of the dryline, models have a tendency to mix them east too fast.



From FWD:

Wednesday and Thursday---Additional low level moisture will be
transported northward on Wednesday as a stout upper level jet
approaches the region. The suite of 00 UTC deterministic long
range guidance is in fair agreement with the positioning of key
synoptic features with an 80 knot mid level speed max
overspreading a sharp dryline, poised to be positioned near the
I-35 corridor. There could be a few morning showers in the WAA
regime, but most of the more vigorous convection will likely have
to wait until the afternoon. With the airmass being strongly capped,
it`s probable that the first few convective cells will be
isolated to widely scattered. As such PoPs will be in the slight
chance to chance category immediately along the I-35 corridor.
While cells may be low in coverage, if updrafts can breach the cap
and mature, they will likely take on supercellular
characteristics and will be capable of mainly a large hail and
damaging wind threat. With time, the dryline should attain enough
forward momentum to surge eastward into the nearly 70 degree
dewpoint air with an increasing number of convective cells. Based
on good run-to-run consistency in blended guidance, I`ve
increased PoPs up into the likely category east of the I-35
corridor. As implied above, the shear-instability parameter space
would support organized convective modes with deep layer shear
values on the order of 50 knots and SBCAPE values near 2000 J/kg.
We will keep an eye on this potential as another round of severe
weather is looking increasingly likely somewhere across the region
late Wednesday.

[Haris]

Looks pretty good. Has good support!

[Cpv17]

[url]https://i.ibb.co/QQ1F0tz/gfs-ens-apcpn-us-64-2.png [/url]

Looks pretty good. Has good support!

I’m getting pretty interested in the Wednesday/Thursday timeframe. Looks like I could possibly get some action this far south this time around.

[dhweather]

3.06" of rain in Heath yesterday. Fortunately no severe weather.

[dhweather]

SPC already advertising Wednesday

[Haris]

Look at the euro cape values in Central TX.. Wed

[1900hurricane]

Yeah, the 12Z ECMWF's presentation for Wednesday is legit.

[bubba hotep]

[Brent]

Had almost 4 inches here(a little may have carried over from last weekend? Not sure) but either way very impressive

Onto Wednesday which definitely looks more concerning for the metro

[bubba hotep]

[bubba hotep]

Hopefully, storms line out pretty quickly on Wednesday because DFW has been a giant hail magnet the last few years! Also, tornado threat would increase substantially in the evening if storms are still discrete.

[dhweather]

Hopefully, storms line out pretty quickly on Wednesday because DFW has been a giant hail magnet the last few years! Also, tornado threat would increase substantially in the evening if storms are still discrete.

Yes, if they stay discrete, we're likely going to see some really severe weather, either giant hail, tornadoes, or both. If we luck out and it congeals into a QLCS, then straight line winds and large hail become more of the threat.

[EnnisTx]

Hopefully, storms line out pretty quickly on Wednesday because DFW has been a giant hail magnet the last few years! Also, tornado threat would increase substantially in the evening if storms are still discrete.

Looks like it's on the menu!

Fort Worth/Dallas, TX

Weather Forecast Office

There will be a threat for strong to severe storms across the region on Wednesday afternoon. The best threat for severe storms will be near and east of the US Highway 281 corridor. The primary hazards will be very large to giant hail, damaging straight line winds and a few tornadoes. Continue to check back

[rwfromkansas]

I don't mind some gusty winds as long as it's not too windy or even seeing funnel clouds that don't touch down, but what I hate is hail. I have been lucky to avoid huge hail since I moved into my house a few years ago. I am worried that may run out soon. Glad I am not in McKinney. Seems like they get another hail storm every year.

[CaptinCrunch]

Hopefully, storms line out pretty quickly on Wednesday because DFW has been a giant hail magnet the last few years! Also, tornado threat would increase substantially in the evening if storms are still discrete.

Looks like it's on the menu!

Fort Worth/Dallas, TX

Weather Forecast Office

There will be a threat for strong to severe storms across the region on Wednesday afternoon. The best threat for severe storms will be near and east of the US Highway 281 corridor. The primary hazards will be very large to giant hail, damaging straight line winds and a few tornadoes. Continue to check back

So basically it's a line east of a (Stephenville up to Mineral Wells to Henrietta) which puts the DFW area on the western side of the threat zone. As always what storms form out around this line can bring some damage, however I'm thinking the worst of the severe weather will be east of Dallas.

[EnnisTx]

Hopefully, storms line out pretty quickly on Wednesday because DFW has been a giant hail magnet the last few years! Also, tornado threat would increase substantially in the evening if storms are still discrete.

Looks like it's on the menu!

Fort Worth/Dallas, TX

Weather Forecast Office

There will be a threat for strong to severe storms across the region on Wednesday afternoon. The best threat for severe storms will be near and east of the US Highway 281 corridor. The primary hazards will be very large to giant hail, damaging straight line winds and a few tornadoes. Continue to check back

So basically it's a line east of a (Stephenville up to Mineral Wells to Henrietta) which puts the DFW area on the western side of the threat zone. As always what storms form out around this line can bring some damage, however I'm thinking the worst of the severe weather will be east of Dallas.

Actually, areas to the West and in D/FW will be under the gun for a significant sever weather event including tornadoes.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1117820640948621312

[rwfromkansas]

The graphic in this tweet does not match the actual SPC outlook? Confusing. It puts things well west of the official outlook.

Looks like it's on the menu!

Fort Worth/Dallas, TX

Weather Forecast Office

There will be a threat for strong to severe storms across the region on Wednesday afternoon. The best threat for severe storms will be near and east of the US Highway 281 corridor. The primary hazards will be very large to giant hail, damaging straight line winds and a few tornadoes. Continue to check back

So basically it's a line east of a (Stephenville up to Mineral Wells to Henrietta) which puts the DFW area on the western side of the threat zone. As always what storms form out around this line can bring some damage, however I'm thinking the worst of the severe weather will be east of Dallas.

Actually, areas to the West and in D/FW will be under the gun for a significant sever weather event including tornadoes.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1117820640948621312