Florida Weather

[arekkusu]

When it rains, it pours (literally). I live in Fleming Island and we've consistently missed out on substantial rain from any of the occasional heating-driven afternoon thunderstorms and from the passing squall line on Sunday. In a way, I think that we need the rain, and it looks like there will be quite a bit of it.

I think I'm probably just gonna stay home on Friday. It looks as if there's a chance I will be in the process of moving between north-central/northeast Florida just as the line starts to intensify, and I don't want to risk it.

[chaser1]

Cold Front party in the house! Looks like the risk of severe weather for most of Central and South Florida will be limited to a rope-like squall line that'll push eastward around dinner-time this Friday but we all should get another nice dose of rain out it. Better yet, I'm just thrilled with Central Florida lows dropping into the 50's for 2-3 nights! I'm thinking that upper 50's should make it at least as far south as inland Palm Beach County.

[psyclone]

Low to mid 60's here this morning with a 45 in Brooksville. Delightful. Not sure about Friday's severe threat downstate but considering we're now out of season for such things...even a decent sub severe line is a bonus... as will be another late season dose of cooler drier air. I'll happily take it

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Looking very windy here Friday- NWS forecasting gusts 40 to 46 mph all across Pinellas County and Tampa Bay. Likely coastal flooding, heavy rain, and wind like we see in a low end tropical cyclone. Also the severe storms possible along the Squall line means more wind.

[arekkusu]

The broad 15% risk has finally been upgraded over the Carolinas, which are now under enhanced risk. The majority of Florida remains under slight risk as of this morning, but since this is a day 3 outlook, I'm sure that an upgrade isn't out of the question yet.

Does look a bit windy on Friday, as Tampa Bay Hurricane suggested. I believe we are looking at sustained speeds well above 20 mph around the Jax metro area. The nearshore and open waters are looking at very likely gale warning conditions; it looks like the waters beyond 20 nm offshore might even get wind gusts in the mid-high 40s kts range, or near storm-force.

I think there's a definite coastal flooding threat in my part of the state, as well. The combination of what could be very heavy rains and elevated seas due to the strong winds is definitely something that should be looked out for. Also wouldn't be surprised if any areal flood watches were issued by NWS Jax during this event.

[northjaxpro]

Latest model GFS run continues to show pre-frontal squall line forecast to move through the North Florida region from around Friday morning 12Z to 21Z late Friday afternoon. An anomalously strong upper level trough will amplify over the Deep South on Friday. The trough actually will become negatively tilted, which in cases like this usually does not bode well in that it enhances the severe weather possibility across the region. Also, we will have the low level jet ramp up across the region as well with the amplification of the upper trough. Strong vertical shear values greater than 50 kt are being modeled with the squall line on Friday and ML CAPE from 800-1200j/kg., thus instability will be quite sufficient on Friday. This would most likely support the potential of damaging wind gusts across the region on Friday. I would not rule out isolated tornadoes as well. The key will be just how much diurnal heating we will get on Friday because should we get ample heating and sunshine out ahead of the squall line on Friday morning into the early afternoon, that could really, really spell big trouble!


I will continue to monitor this closely.

It will be a windy day on Friday as the pressure gradient increases as the upper trough amplifies across the region and surface Low develops up across the Central Appalachians by Friday evening.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

NWS Tampa Bay forecasting pressure gradient wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph along the coast and 1 to 3 feet of surge flooding along the coast. This is going to be like a tropical storm! Also the Squall line in areas of severe cells or bowing cells will produce gusts to 60 mph!

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, we could be looking at a similar event we had back in December '18 in which they had 71 mph gust in strong winds down in Clearwater Beach. There was another similar event to this one coming up back in January this year as well. We have had a few of these very strong upper level troughs pivot through the region these past several months.

There will be strong winds on Friday for sure. I anticipate that conditions favor the SPC to elevate portions of the North Florida area and possibly portions of Central Florida to enhanced risk in the next 24 hours. I have been concerned about this potential across the area going all the way back to early last week. Friday will be a very active day.

[psyclone]

Pretty rare to see gale warnings offshore in the Gulf this late...a lot of energy digging unusually far south. Friday severe threat is probably mostly marginally severe straight line wind gusts. I could see one of those decent squall lines with 50-60mph gusts affecting portions of north and perhaps central florida. TLH has issued a coastal flood watch for the big bend...may get advisory worthy water rises on the nature coast as well.

[jaxfladude]

:uarrow: Yeah, we could be looking at a similar event we had back in December '18 in which they had 71 mph gust in strong winds down in Clearwater Beach. There was another similar event to this one coming up back in January this year as well. We have had a few of these very strong upper level troughs pivot through the region these past several months.

There will be strong winds on Friday for sure. I anticipate that conditions favor the SPC to elevate portions of the North Florida area and possibly portions of Central Florida to enhanced risk in the next 24 hours. I have been concerned about this potential across the area going all the way back to early last week. Friday will be a very active day.

Do I need to to take down/inside easily
blown over outside/door items Thurs night here in Jax metro or still too early to know??

[northjaxpro]

NWS Jax office at this time has small craft advisories for inland waters with South winds around 20 kt with gusts to 30 mph beginning early Friday and winds gusting to 35 knots + for the off shore waters from Fernandina Beach southward. However, this could change over the next 24-36 hours.

I would definitely secure any loose objects during Friday as winds could be potentially quite strong, especially when the squall line itself pivots through the region Friday afternoon.

It would not take too much more to reach Inland High Wind Advisory criteria (wind 35 mph or higher wind gusts) This is possible on Friday as well. It would not surprise me at all if Jax NWS office issued this for the area for Friday beginning as early as tomorrow morning.

[arekkusu]

I remember the event you speak of, northjaxpro. It was a couple days before Christmas -- I think December 20. Luckily, we missed out on the worst of it up here. I also have noticed myself that the predicted wind gusts for the coastal and open waters aren't quite as extreme as they were this morning.

And I really hope northeast/north-central Florida doesn't get updated to enhanced risk (or worse), because that is exactly where I need to be on Friday afternoon and I'm still holding out hope that I can miss out on the worst of the line.

On a side note, I literally just took and completed an "advanced" Skywarn training class minutes ago at my county's emergency management operations center and never thought that I could be using what I learned so soon.

[chaser1]

I'm still not seeing this Friday squall line as posing that much of a threat to Central, East Coast, or Southern Fla. I still think that most of us will likely see a rather rope-like pre-frontal passing. Boy, am I looking forward to a couple days of some dryer/cooler air though!

[northjaxpro]

SPC, as I anticipated earlier yesterday, did indeed overnight upgraded all of the North Florida region to Enhanced Risk for severe weather potential for Friday into Friday evening.

This morning's 06Z GFS model run now has slowed the progression of the squall line. It now has it moving through the Northeast Florida area closer to 00Z Saturday. That is about 4-6 hours slower than previous runs.

[Patrick99]

NWS Miami discussion this morning mentions the upper support pulling away later Friday. When they start saying things like that that typically means we are getting very little, a broken thin line of showers at best. maybe if timing is such that this can happen during peak daytime heating, we'll have a better shot.

[TheStormExpert]

This same thing I believe happened back in December with the Cut-off Low just before Christmas. All the best dynamics passed to the north over north-central FL.

I’m surprised that there haven’t been any mesoscale convective systems tracking through the gulf during the Spring in recent years. That would be our best bet for any active severe weather threats.

[arekkusu]

How do you all think that the potential later arrival of the line to the northern parts of the state will affect severe weather potential there?

[northjaxpro]

How do you all think that the potential later arrival of the line to the northern parts of the state will affect severe weather potential there?

Good morning Arekkusu. Yeah, this is one of the critical things to monitor now going forward through tomorrow. If we get an earlier time of arrival of the squall line across the area tomorrow, it may help to cap or put a lid in place to prevent enabling the atmosphere to really become unstable. Any limitation or cutoff of maximum daytime heating will help the situation tomorrow to help keep severe storms at a minimum as much as possible.

Any sufficient lengthy time of diurnal heating tomorrow ahead of the squall line could be a big problem for the region. It would be added fuel to the fire for potential dangerous storm development. So, a late arriving or delayed time of arrival of the squall line may not be a good thing at all. I am carefully monitoring this aspect.

[mlfreeman]

How do you all think that the potential later arrival of the line to the northern parts of the state will affect severe weather potential there?

Good morning Arekkusu. Yeah, this is one of the critical things to monitor now going forward through tomorrow. If we get an earlier time of arrival of the squall line across the area tomorrow, it may help to cap or put a lid in place to prevent enabling the atmosphere to really become unstable. Any limitation or cutoff of maximum daytime heating will help the situation tomorrow to help keep severe storms at a minimum as much as possible.

Any sufficient lengthy time of diurnal heating tomorrow ahead of the squall line could be a big problem for the region. It would be added fuel to the fire for potential dangerous storm development. So, a late arriving or delayed time of arrival of the squall line may not be a good thing at all. I am carefully monitoring this aspect.

Everything I’ve seen seems to worry about straight line winds and maybe a few tornadoes.

Do you concur?

Could we see someone with accumulations of hail like Trenton, FL back at the end of March?

[northjaxpro]

How do you all think that the potential later arrival of the line to the northern parts of the state will affect severe weather potential there?

Everything I’ve seen seems to worry about straight line winds and maybe a few tornadoes.

Do you concur?

Could we see someone with accumulations of hail like Trenton, FL back at the end of March?

Given the dynamics and synotical analysis I have done this morning, I am concerned about strong straight line wind damage and tornadoes.We have a strengthening low level jet, thanks to the very strong upper trough still digging and amplifying into the Deep South region. The jet will also be surging across our region, and looking at the vertical shear values above 50 kt forecast the next 24 hours, that is a cause of concern for potential tornadic activity.

Hail is also a possibility in some potential storm cells as well tomorrow. Now, rather we see another instance like we saw in Trenton a few weeks ago, well that was an extreme rare case to that extent. However, anytime we have a deep cold upper level pocket of air in the region, the possibility of seeing extreme hail storms like that we saw in Trenton is always a plausible possibility.