Florida Weather

[northjaxpro]

How do you all think that the potential later arrival of the line to the northern parts of the state will affect severe weather potential there?

Everything I’ve seen seems to worry about straight line winds and maybe a few tornadoes.

Do you concur?

Could we see someone with accumulations of hail like Trenton, FL back at the end of March?

Given the dynamics of this incoming system and synoptical analysis I have done this morning, I am concerned about strong straight line wind damage and tornadoes across North and Northeast Florida tomorrow. We have a strengthening low level jet, thanks to the very strong upper trough still digging and amplifying into the Deep South region. The jet will also be surging across our region, and looking at the vertical shear values above 50 kt forecast the next 24 hours, that is a cause of concern for potential tornadic activity.

Hail is also a possibility in some potential storm cells as well tomorrow. Now, rather we see another instance like we saw in Trenton a few weeks ago, well that was an extreme rare case to that extent. However, anytime we have a deep cold upper level pocket of air in the region like this on tomorrow, the possibility of seeing extreme hail storms similar to what occured in Trenton is a plausible one.

[arekkusu]

The enhanced risk for tomorrow has been edited slightly to exclude some of the more southeastern parts of northeast Florida; most of Putnam and Marion and all of St. Johns County and Flagler County are all under slight risk, as well as some of Clay County. My location in northeast Clay County and Jacksonville itself are both still covered by the enhanced risk area.

[psyclone]

Most of tomorrow's severe potential involves marginally severe wind gusts with the squall line. Most areas are probably going to experience a sub severe (but still very interesting) squall line that comes through with gusty winds with the weather getting less interesting as one heads east and south. Most places will probably come up short wrt svr wx. a few places may push 50kt criteria with straight line winds, maybe someone gets a brief weak tornado or waterspout...hail risk looks negligible. Overall the benefit of needed rain, an out of season front and refreshing cool air following vastly outweighs any severe risk for probably 99.5%+ of the populace. Let 'er dump.

[arekkusu]

I'm hoping for the best, psyclone. The last time the Jax metro area was under enhanced risk was in October during Hurricane Michael, if I recall correctly. I'm curious as to how this will play out.

[psyclone]

It's interesting for sure and there is severe risk with those extremely high winds aloft...and that risk is higher as one heads north through florida. The best severe threat will likely reside over the Carolina's tomorrow but there's no doubt some risk exists into florida. Current lightning data shows a well developed squall line deep into the gulf so we're in the hunt

[AdamFirst]

Looking forward to the cooler temperatures too. Perhaps the last shot of 50s until October or November here. NWS Melbourne continues to moderate nighttime lows further down - now looking at 52 here on Saturday night.

[mlfreeman]

Looking forward to the cooler temperatures too. Perhaps the last shot of 50s until October or November here. NWS Melbourne continues to moderate nighttime lows further down - now looking at 52 here on Saturday night.

Bah. Screw the "cooler temperatures."
We don't need 60-75 MPH winds blowing trees over.
A storm on Mon the 8th blew one down into my parents yard already and I don't think it was considered "severe".

[arekkusu]

A nice-looking line of showers and thunderstorms currently extends from St. Johns County to the Marion-Volusia County line. I'm not sure if this type of activity was expected in the area today, much less so late.

Also, wind advisories just dropped for all of NWS Jacksonville's coverage area.

[psyclone]

The line has really degraded. No active warnings right now either. Lightning data still shows robust convection over the gulf so perhaps it comes back to life tomorrow with daytime heating. Should be interesting to watch and the cool air coming after is going to be amazing..

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

SPC has upgraded Tampa Bay to an Enhanced Risk, up from slight risk earlier. Gonna be a wild afternoon.

[northjaxpro]

A very active day with severe weather across the region in store for today!

As of the time of this post early this morning, we already have a robust area of showers and thunderstorms moving through Saint Johns County and moving into Southern Duval County as seabreeze boundaries and a trough have fired off this area of rain and thunderstorms early this morning. It will end by 5-6.a.m..


Wind Advisory indeed has been posted by the NWS Jax WFO for wind gusts to 40 mph and possibly higher at times, beginning at 9 a.m., and continuing through 8 p.m. this evening. People here in the Jacksonville metro area, please be careful on the bridges today, particularly high profile vehicles, especially on the Dames Point Bridge. I expected this advisory to be posted back on yesterday, and that has now occured. There are very strong winds just above the surface with such a volatile wind sheared atmosohere, and after sunrise, those winds will mix down easily to the surface. I hope people in the area secured any loose objects in the yard and other places for today.

The very latest GFS model guidance shows the main pre-frontal squall line progressing through the Suwannee River Valley region and reaching the I-75 corridor across North Florida right around 1-2 p.m. this afternoon. The squall line will then reach the Jax metro area around 3 p.m. and should clear Nassau, Duval, Clay and St. Johns counties and be off in the coastal waters between 5-7 p.m. this evening. The timing and progression of the squall line will be monitored closely throughout the day.

The deepening upper trough across the area today, along with an intensifying low level jet really have me very concerned with the potential of severe weather today. Vertical shear values and sufgicient instability across the region today in this juiced environment has it primed for producing severe weather for sure.

As discussed yesterday, the critical thing today to monitor will be just how much diurnal heating will be maximized out ahead if the developing squall line. Timing of when the squall line comes through is critical as well. Helecity values looking at the latest models early this morning really are concerning for possible tornado development with the squall line, along with damaging straight line winds. Wind gusts to 70 mph or higher in storms woulld definitely be possible in storm cell development later today.

No doubt, an extremely active day in store across the region up into this evening. Be on the alert for those who will be out and about and stay abreasted to the latest reports and bulletins posted from the NWS WFOs and don't forget the NOAA Weather Radio. The NOAA Weather Radio is a great tool and source to have with you always, especially on severe weather alert days like this one today!!

The weather is looking glorious after we get through this severe weather event today. Easter weekend is looking terrific with unseasonably cool weather filtering into the region with the deep upper level trough in place across the Eastern U.S. Temperatures both tomorrow morning and Easter Sunday morning here across much of North Florida will be well into the 40s! What a treat from Mother Nature! Enjoy it before the summer muggies set in for good!

[northjaxpro]

Update

Pre-frontal squall line advancing eastward at a good pace. Leaning edge of the line already approaching the Apalachicola River basin in the Florida Panhandle. The squall line extends well down into the GOM. It ahould reach the Tallahassee area and Big Bend region by 9 a.m.
or sooner.

Winds mixing down quickly to the surface. Gusts to 25 mph already occuring here at my home station currently. The winds will gust to 40 mph or higher later today, especially with the approach of the squall line this afternoon.

More later....

[NDG]

The Orlando area to have rain events during April is a treat, this is usually the month that my water bill is the highest because of all the watering I have to do to my garden to keep the plants from dying during non-El Nino years. The much higher sun angle, which is the same as a late August day surely dry things up quickly in the sandy hills of my area.

[arekkusu]

The line is doing some damage right now. NWS Tallahassee has issued nonstop severe thunderstorm warnings for at least the past two hours, along with numerous reports of wind damage. One of the stronger storms produced a confirmed tornado southwest of Tallhassee. I wonder how we in northeast Florida will compare to this.

[northjaxpro]

Tornado Watch 86 issued for much of Georgia and extending south into The Big Bend region of North Florida and the Suwanee River Valley. This watch expires at 11 a.m. this morning.


It does not at this time include the Jax metro area, but this watch area will probably will be extended later today to include the Jax area.


Also, although we do have clouds throughout the region to help with curtailing some with maximum diurnal heating, we still have a very moist, strong southerly flow and instability is very impressive. Vertical wind shear values are being indicated at around 60 kts this morning over near the Big Bend region, and this will spread east, and don't forget we have an intensifying low level jet currently over the region with the very strong amplifying trough. Still expecting temps to reach to the lower 80s most areas before the arrival of the squall line. This low level jet will be a big player later today interacting with the squall line. It could re-intensify severe thunderstorm development within and near that line later today. Have to watch this very closely!


Update
EDIT 10:15 a.m.


Squall line is advancing rapidly eastward. It is already reaching the I-75 corridor, and it is very apparent that the line will be moving into the Northeast Florida area around noon time it looks like at this point, much earlier than anticipated.

[arekkusu]

995
WWUS62 KJAX 191413
WCNJAX

WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCH 87
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1013 AM EDT FRI APR 19 2019

FLC001-003-007-019-023-031-035-041-047-083-089-107-109-121-125-
GAC001-003-005-025-039-049-065-069-101-127-161-229-299-305-192000-
/O.NEW.KJAX.TO.A.0087.190419T1415Z-190419T2000Z/

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED TORNADO WATCH 87 IN
EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS

IN FLORIDA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 15 COUNTIES

IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA

BAKER CLAY DUVAL
FLAGLER NASSAU PUTNAM
ST. JOHNS

IN NORTHERN FLORIDA

ALACHUA BRADFORD COLUMBIA
GILCHRIST HAMILTON MARION
SUWANNEE UNION

IN GEORGIA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 14 COUNTIES

IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA

APPLING ATKINSON BACON
BRANTLEY CAMDEN CHARLTON
CLINCH COFFEE ECHOLS
GLYNN JEFF DAVIS PIERCE
WARE WAYNE

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF ALMA, AMELIA CITY, ANASTASIA,
ANTHONY, ARLINGTON, ATKINSON, AXSON, BAKERSVILLE, BAXLEY,
BELLAIR, BELMONT, BLACKSHEAR, BOSTWICK, BURBANK, CARRAWAY,
COLUMBIA, COUNTRY CLUB ESTATE, DOCK JUNCTION, DOCTORS INLET,
DOCTORTOWN, DOUGLAS, DOVER BLUFF, DUNGENESS, DURBIN,
FERNANDINA BEACH, FOLKSTON, FRUIT COVE, GAINESVILLE,
GAINESVILLE AIRPORT, GARDI, GLYNN HAVEN, HAZLEHURST, HICKOX,
HILLIARD, HOBOKEN, HOMELAND, HOMERVILLE, HORTENSE, HOUSTON,
JACKSONVILLE, JASPER, JEKYLL ISLAND, JENNINGS, JESUP,
KINGS FERRY, KINGSLAND, LAKE BUTLER, LAKE CITY, LAKESIDE,
LIVE OAK, LULU, MACCLENNY, MCALPIN, MIDDLEBURG, NAHUNTA, NEEDHAM,
NEEDMORE, NEW LACY, NEW RIVER, NEWBURN, NEWNANS LAKE, NORMANDY,
OCALA, OCALA AIRPORT, OCEANWAY, OLENO STATE PARK, OLUSTEE,
ORANGE PARK, ORTEGA, PALATKA, PALM COAST, PALM VALLEY, PEARSON,
PINE GROVE, PLANT HATCH, PONTE VEDRA BEACH, RACE POND, RATLIFF,
RAYBON, RIVERSIDE, SAN MARCO, SEA ISLAND, ST. GEORGE, ST. SIMONS,
STARKE, STATENVILLE, STEPHEN FOSTER STATE PARK, SUWANNEE SPRINGS,
SWITZERLAND, THALMANN, TRENTON, WATERTOWN, WAYCROSS, WAYNESVILLE,
WEIRSDALE, WEST LAKE, WHITE SPRINGS, WILLACOOCHEE, WINOKUR,
AND YULEE.

$$

AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-192000-
/O.NEW.KJAX.TO.A.0087.190419T1415Z-190419T2000Z/

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED TORNADO WATCH 87 IN
EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS

THIS WATCH INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS

COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT
20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL OUT
20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM
WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO
60 NM
WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM
WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM

$$

[northjaxpro]

Thanks Arrekkusu. I was just about to post this. You are on top of it.

Squall line advancing very quickly than anticipated that is for sure.

[MetroMike]

Heard the breaking news on the tornado watch through an pop up alert on my iPad shortly after 10am .
My question is why did I see no previous mesoscale discussions about that potential on the SPC site?
Seems like something is amiss there.

Any thoughts?

[northjaxpro]

Heard the breaking news on the tornado watch through an pop up alert on my iPad shortly after 10am .
My question is why did I see no previous mesoscale discussions about that potential on the SPC site?
Seems like something is amiss there.

Any thoughts?

This would be very unusual for SPC not to have post that discussion for our region. I would find that omission very rare to have happened for them. I would have to think there was some technical glitch involved or something in that realm. ... I say this because we were upgraded to enhanced risk in the region back on late Tuesday night. I have to believe they had mesoscale discussion in place as they normally do in situations like this. That would be very unusual for them if it was not there.

[arekkusu]

Fairly widespread severe thunderstorms with 70+ mph wind gusts have been popping up all over north-central Florida and southeastern Georgia. These storms have caused extensive wind damage already, particularly in Suwannee County and Hamilton County.

I'm hoping that this does NOT continue as the line approaches where I am.

Also noticed the lack of mesoscale discussions issued for this event in NWS Jax's area before the watch dropped.

Edited once again to add that widespread significant wind damage has been reported in SE GA as well.

Edited for the fourth time to say that Columbia and Baker are now under tornado warning with a confirmed funnel cloud near Lake City, and now, many counties in north-central Florida are under severe thunderstorm warning for 70+ mph wind gusts, one of the affected areas being Gainesville. A lot is going on and something new seems to be happening every minute today.

I can safely say that I'm glad to have stayed home today.