2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)
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Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)
Won’t effect to much, still above average in my book
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Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)
stormlover2013 wrote:Won’t effect to much, still above average in my book
so, how many storms do you reckon for the atlantic then? how many majors?
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Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)
14-15, 3 major, think it will kind of similar as last year, everyone last year was waiting on El Niño and really never came into fruition, this year same thing I think El Niño is being over hyped for this hurricane season and models have struggled with it!!!
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Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)
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Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)
Interesting to say the least.
https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1116320764372897792
https://twitter.com/wx_tiger/status/1116381501153792004
https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1116320764372897792
https://twitter.com/wx_tiger/status/1116381501153792004
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Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)
TheStormExpert wrote:https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1116324901776969729
Also, this type of standing wave is detrimental to El Niños - think 2018 - but doesn't preclude one
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Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)
NotSparta wrote:TheStormExpert wrote:https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1116324901776969729
Also, this type of standing wave is detrimental to El Niños - think 2018 - but doesn't preclude one
From what I see, the problem with this type of standing wave is that it doesn't stop an El Nino or a progression towards an El Nino, it usually keeps the event weak/moderate or delays a developing El Nino, so this may open the door to another event in 2020. Pretty stubborn pattern.
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2019 ATL Season
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Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)
I blinked too long didn't even notice that the NAO had gone negative, back to the positive regime over the next few days.
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Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)
ECMWF MSLP forecast for ASO is a copy and paste that has higher pressures everywhere in the Atlantic. Kingarabian ,you are sitting in a dense blue bomb zone.
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Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)
cycloneye wrote:ECMWF MSLP forecast for ASO is a copy and paste that has higher pressures everywhere in the Atlantic. Kingarabian ,you are sitting in a blue bomb zone.
https://i.imgur.com/wAVYfvS.png
Same old same old. It has shown the same thing for the past 5 years.
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Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)
Yep euro has struggled for a while with that forecast
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Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)
As one would expect the ECMWF shows below normal precip in the Atlantic MDR and generally a -AMO SST signature with a near normal MDR and the warmest anomalies in the subtropics, but this forecast is likely largely dependent on the persistence of El Niño conditions. If El Niño dissipates which looks like a possibility now, this forecast will likely bust. Just a reminder the April ECMWF forecast for ASO in 2017 was nearly identical.
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Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)
cycloneye wrote:ECMWF MSLP forecast for ASO is a copy and paste that has higher pressures everywhere in the Atlantic. Kingarabian ,you are sitting in a dense blue bomb zone.
https://i.imgur.com/wAVYfvS.png
Here's the same forecast for 2017, just for comparison
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Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)
cycloneye wrote:ECMWF MSLP forecast for ASO is a copy and paste that has higher pressures everywhere in the Atlantic. Kingarabian ,you are sitting in a dense blue bomb zone.
https://i.imgur.com/wAVYfvS.png
Yeah unfortunately. If things remain the same, have to pray that the southwesterlies are present again.
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Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)
Kingarabian wrote:cycloneye wrote:ECMWF MSLP forecast for ASO is a copy and paste that has higher pressures everywhere in the Atlantic. Kingarabian ,you are sitting in a dense blue bomb zone.
https://i.imgur.com/wAVYfvS.png
Yeah unfortunately. If things remain the same, have to pray that the southwesterlies are present again.
Hawaiian Islands are in the new Hurricane Alley, seems like it during the past few years
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Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)
Could this be another season where both the Atlantic and East Pacific are above normal in overall activity?
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Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)
TheStormExpert wrote:Could this be another season where both the Atlantic and East Pacific are above normal in overall activity?
Maybe, but probably only if the El Niño struggles
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Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)
NDG wrote:Kingarabian wrote:cycloneye wrote:ECMWF MSLP forecast for ASO is a copy and paste that has higher pressures everywhere in the Atlantic. Kingarabian ,you are sitting in a dense blue bomb zone.
https://i.imgur.com/wAVYfvS.png
Yeah unfortunately. If things remain the same, have to pray that the southwesterlies are present again.
Hawaiian Islands are in the new Hurricane Alley, seems like it during the past few years
Becoming the new norm...
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Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)
Kingarabian wrote:NDG wrote:Kingarabian wrote:
Yeah unfortunately. If things remain the same, have to pray that the southwesterlies are present again.
Hawaiian Islands are in the new Hurricane Alley, seems like it during the past few years
Becoming the new norm...
We've had so many Hawaii threats in the past 5 years, but shear has come to the rescue for nearly all of them.
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