Texas Spring 2019

[TheProfessor]

Man we didn't get much rain on Tuesday like I thought we might, which is good. But now it's traded places with today and tomorrow which kind of creeped up the last couple of days. May not get flood watches with this batch, but that system Next week is looking nasty for the Plains and Midwest.

[weatherdude1108]

Looking more hopeful according to the latest EWX discussion. Nice, cool temperatures tonight, beneficial rains in the extended.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
250 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2019

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday Night)...
Currently left with a post frontal airmass with light NW surface
winds under clear skies. Efficient radiational cooling tonight with
lack of cloud cover will result in overnight temperatures in the 50`s
for the Hill Country and around 60 degrees for the rest of south
central Texas. The patchy fog that developed over the Hill Country
this morning cannot be ruled out again tomorrow morning, but based
on surface RH from forecast soundings in addition to MOS guidance it
is not likely.

Pleasant weather in store for Friday. The region will stay relatively
cool with highs reaching the upper 70`s and low 80`s. Winds will
begin to veer Friday afternoon as surface high slides east toward the
Mississippi Valley. Overnight lows in the mid to low 50`s.


&&

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Ridging over the central CONUS struggles to build as upper level
disturbances make their way across the Northern Plains over the
weekend. Has no effect on rain chances for our region but results in
zonal flow across the cenral CONUS into early next week. One of these
disturbances on Saturday tries to bring a front down south but
washes out before getting near the region, looks primarily like a
rain maker for the TX/OK border.

As moisture deepens from continuous SE flow off the Gulf, cloud cover
returns to the forecast starting Sunday, as well as the chance for
patchy morning fog development. Temperatures on a general warming
trend for the first half of the forecast period look to peak on
Monday in the mid to upper 80`s for most locations with the exception
of reaching the low 90`s out west.

Next upper level system approaches the region from the west on
Tuesday. Placement of this upper level feature differs slightly with
global models but general agreement on being centered over the four
corners region as a cut off low early Tuesday and kicking off
convection across the Central Plains/northern portion of the state
later in the day. As this low works it`s way over the Rockies, it is
ingested into mean upper level flow and traverses across the Plains
as an open wave. Chances for rain are brought into the forecast for
Tuesday but expect most of the convection to be located just north of
the area where most of the forcing will be. 30 POPs are kept in the
forecast through the end of the forecast period with another low
dipping out of the Pacific Northwest and moving east, aiding in
keeping an overall troughing pattern over the southwestern US.

With a general wetter pattern taking root at the end of the period,
it will be something to watch over the next several days as models
begin to develop a well grounded scenario. Currently there is no
concern about persistent rain chances, just beneficial rains for the
area.

[Brent]

Coming back to Dallas tomorrow night bring on more rain

I was at the Grand Canyon today and it actually rained for about 10 minutes with even some lightning Vegas has been hot and dry

[bubba hotep]

Bring it!

[bubba hotep]

Euro Weeklies look very wet for Texas. I doubt this can top '15 but a pretty incredible pattern looks to be setting in for Texas.

[Ntxw]

Since 2015 these 10"+ rainfall months are becoming an annual thing for DFW. I'd make a good bet May makes a run for that. Hard to believe we just had two less than a year ago (not counting last Feb) and may get another one assuming things plays out like it should. I'll have to run some numbers but I bet 2015-2019 ends up probably the wettest 5 year period on record.

[lukem]

Euro Weeklies look very wet for Texas. I doubt this can top '15 but a pretty incredible pattern looks to be setting in for Texas.

One big difference is ‘15 was following one of the worst droughts in Texas history. Currently, most Texas lakes are full and releasing water and the soil is saturated. Tanks, creeks, and rivers are the same. If we get anything close to ‘15, we are going to have some major issues.

[Brent]

Since 2015 these 10"+ rainfall months are becoming an annual thing for DFW. I'd make a good bet May makes a run for that. Hard to believe we just had two less than a year ago (not counting last Feb) and may get another one assuming things plays out like it should. I'll have to run some numbers but I bet 2015-2019 ends up probably the wettest 5 year period on record.

Pretty much ever since i moved to Texas

[Haris]

Since 2015 these 10"+ rainfall months are becoming an annual thing for DFW. I'd make a good bet May makes a run for that. Hard to believe we just had two less than a year ago (not counting last Feb) and may get another one assuming things plays out like it should. I'll have to run some numbers but I bet 2015-2019 ends up probably the wettest 5 year period on record.

We are a 7.26" here in Austin for April 2019. Same deal across many areas of the state. Loving it!

[weatherdude1108]

Euro Weeklies look very wet for Texas. I doubt this can top '15 but a pretty incredible pattern looks to be setting in for Texas.

One big difference is ‘15 was following one of the worst droughts in Texas history. Currently, most Texas lakes are full and releasing water and the soil is saturated. Tanks, creeks, and rivers are the same. If we get anything close to ‘15, we are going to have some major issues.

Lakes around San Angelo (UCRA area), the panhandle, and west Texas, and maybe deep south Texas have the least amount of water in them and can handle more rain. Definitely a ways from capacity for lakes in the San Angelo and panhandle regions.

https://waterdatafortexas.org/reservoirs/statewide

[Cerlin]

Man if only we could translate this wetness to snow in the winter...

[Cpv17]

Euro Weeklies look very wet for Texas. I doubt this can top '15 but a pretty incredible pattern looks to be setting in for Texas.

What’s causing it to be dry in my part of the state? I still don’t really see much hope on the models for southeast TX.

[bubba hotep]

Since 2015 these 10"+ rainfall months are becoming an annual thing for DFW. I'd make a good bet May makes a run for that. Hard to believe we just had two less than a year ago (not counting last Feb) and may get another one assuming things plays out like it should. I'll have to run some numbers but I bet 2015-2019 ends up probably the wettest 5 year period on record.

It has been an incredible stretch for sure. If I had the time to get back to my PhD, this would be a very intriguing stretch to analyze to see if is part of larger scale shift associated with changing tropical circulations.

[lukem]

Euro Weeklies look very wet for Texas. I doubt this can top '15 but a pretty incredible pattern looks to be setting in for Texas.

One big difference is ‘15 was following one of the worst droughts in Texas history. Currently, most Texas lakes are full and releasing water and the soil is saturated. Tanks, creeks, and rivers are the same. If we get anything close to ‘15, we are going to have some major issues.

Lakes around San Angelo (UCRA area), the panhandle, and west Texas, and maybe deep south Texas have the least amount of water in them and can handle more rain. Definitely a ways from capacity for lakes in the San Angelo and panhandle regions.

https://waterdatafortexas.org/reservoirs/statewide

As a Midlander, I would love to see the UCRA lakes fill up. They caught some nice water this week, and if the GFS is correct for the next two weeks I could see some major progress going into the summer. They are night and day from where they were a few years ago. However, most of the lakes east of them are in good shape if not over capacity. Considering that's the majority of the state's lakes, I'm very concerned about the rain forecast going forward.

[rwfromkansas]

We lived in Midland for 5 years. Not a big fan of the desert and dust storms, but we had some nice snow there.

The area we used to live on the west side of town had some massive hail the other night, with some up to baseballs it looks like.

One big difference is ‘15 was following one of the worst droughts in Texas history. Currently, most Texas lakes are full and releasing water and the soil is saturated. Tanks, creeks, and rivers are the same. If we get anything close to ‘15, we are going to have some major issues.

Lakes around San Angelo (UCRA area), the panhandle, and west Texas, and maybe deep south Texas have the least amount of water in them and can handle more rain. Definitely a ways from capacity for lakes in the San Angelo and panhandle regions.

https://waterdatafortexas.org/reservoirs/statewide

As a Midlander, I would love to see the UCRA lakes fill up. They caught some nice water this week, and if the GFS is correct for the next two weeks I could see some major progress going into the summer. They are night and day from where they were a few years ago. However, most of the lakes east of them are in good shape if not over capacity. Considering that's the majority of the state's lakes, I'm very concerned about the rain forecast going forward.

[Haris]

5.3” on the euro ensemble. Good god. wow

[gpsnowman]

As we await the soggy week ahead here in DFW, I noticed a Winter Storm Warning has been posted for parts of the Midwest, including Chicago where up to five inches of snow could fall this weekend. Amazing.

[bubba hotep]

SPC D4

[Ntxw]

2015ing

[bubba hotep]

2015ing

https://images2.imgbox.com/4b/d1/lhB1lEvh_o.gif

WPC going big!