Area of disturbed weather offshore the Carolinas
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- Hurricaneman
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Area of disturbed weather offshore the Carolinas
This may need to be watched the next few days as it has been persistent for 36 to 48 hrs
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- northjaxpro
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Re: Area of disturbed weather in the Bahamas
Yeah, you beat me to posting a topic on this. It definitely looks better than this time yesterday as it drifts slowly north/northwest. Definitely interesting to see if it persists.
It appears that we have a broad surface trough over The Bahamas area currently.
It appears that we have a broad surface trough over The Bahamas area currently.
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- TheStormExpert
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Re: Area of disturbed weather in the Bahamas
Been watching this fester over The Bahamas for the last few days. Thankfully westerly shear is strong and will likely prevent any development.
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Re: Area of disturbed weather in the Bahamas
Hmmm, don't look now but it appears that a coc is forming just north of the Turks and Caicos.
I think that this it trying to drop to the surface and form a warm core.
Florida just may want to keep and eye on this although it has brought no mention at NHC.
I think that this it trying to drop to the surface and form a warm core.
Florida just may want to keep and eye on this although it has brought no mention at NHC.
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- CyclonicFury
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Re: Area of disturbed weather in the Bahamas
From NHC TWD
A surface trough curves NE from the Windward Passage near 19N74W
to the SE Bahamas near 22N74W to NE of the Bahamas near 26N71W.
Mid to upper-level low pressure centered near 24N73W is supporting
the surface trough. The surface trough continues to provide a
low-level focus for scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection over the SE Bahamas as well as the Turks and Caicos
Islands from 22N to 28N between 68W and 74W. The surface trough
will linger over the Bahamas during the next couple of days while
high pressure builds NE of the area. This pattern will support
moderate to fresh E to SE winds, except fresh to strong S of 27N
through Wednesday night. Winds will also pulse to strong offshore
of Hispaniola, mainly at night through Fri night. The upper-level
low and surface trough will weaken and shift W toward the end of
this week, allowing winds to diminish and seas to subside in this
region.
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NCSU B.S. in Meteorology Class of 2021. Tropical weather blogger at http://www.cyclonicfury.com. My forecasts and thoughts are NOT official, for official forecasts please consult the National Hurricane Center.
- northjaxpro
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Re: Area of disturbed weather in the Bahamas
OuterBanker wrote:Hmmm, don't look now but it appears that a coc is forming just north of the Turks and Caicos.
I think that this it trying to drop to the surface and form a warm core.
Florida just may want to keep and eye on this although it has brought no mention at NHC.
It's interesting you mention that in that it does look like there is rotation occurring in that vicinity of the Turks. I have noticed it too Outerbanker.
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NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!
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Re: Area of disturbed weather in the Bahamas
Local met did mention downpours to start the weekend. Could be from this very disturbance.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
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Re: Area of disturbed weather in the Bahamas
Looks like the area is slowing inching west towards Florida.
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- MGC
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Re: Area of disturbed weather in the Bahamas
Something fun to watch, highly doubt anything comes of this disturbance, lots of outflow boundaries and strong UL winds.....MGC
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- northjaxpro
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Re: Area of disturbed weather in the Bahamas
Also, surface pressures in the region are still relatively high. Buoys near the Central Bahamas are indicating nothing lower than 1015 mb at this time.
Interesting feature though, just simply serving as a little teaser of potentially what is to come with the hurricane season just about a month away from the official start.
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NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!
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- cycloneye
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Re: Area of disturbed weather in the Bahamas
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Re: Area of disturbed weather in the Bahamas
now rain expect earlier and forecast by late wed not thur as forecast on sunday here south fl
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- CourierPR
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Re: Area of disturbed weather in the Bahamas
Joe Bastardi said today that shear was expected to decrease.
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- SFLcane
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Re: Area of disturbed weather in the Bahamas
No development here at all expected it will probably poof as it moves near the state. Some scattered down pours expected. Just a reminder 1 month to go before season starts
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- cycloneye
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Re: Area of disturbed weather in the Bahamas
https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1123581922368741381
Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
925 AM EDT Wed May 1 2019
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
A trough of low pressure located over the northwestern Bahamas is
producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Little
development is expected during the next couple of days as the
system moves generally northwestward toward the Florida Peninsula.
Subsequently, some slow development is possible as the disturbance
turns northeastward and moves over the western Atlantic.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible over
portions of the Bahamas and the Florida Peninsula during the next
couple of days. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be
issued by 10 AM EDT Thursday, or sooner if conditions warrant.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
$$
Forecaster Beven
Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
925 AM EDT Wed May 1 2019
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
A trough of low pressure located over the northwestern Bahamas is
producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Little
development is expected during the next couple of days as the
system moves generally northwestward toward the Florida Peninsula.
Subsequently, some slow development is possible as the disturbance
turns northeastward and moves over the western Atlantic.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible over
portions of the Bahamas and the Florida Peninsula during the next
couple of days. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be
issued by 10 AM EDT Thursday, or sooner if conditions warrant.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
$$
Forecaster Beven
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
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Re: Area of disturbed weather in the Bahamas
OK, now NHC it def gotta keep an eye on it! gotta remember that area it is passing through is a very interesting area for quick development which always makes me nervioso, I think we all remember and olde man named Andrew! Of course don't expect anything like that, but would not be suprised to see some growth leading to Miami maybe seeing sustained winds 30+ and some strong tropical downpours on Thursday. Lucky me as I'm actually driving down to Miami today after work, yeah fun! I geuss this is welcome to 2019 season ; )
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Disclaimer: while I am PhD who does research I'm rambling here so this post should be taken only for entertainment...use nhc.noaa.gov for official forecasts!
FLoridian living round here for a while: 2016 Matthew & 1998 Earl lived barrier island landfall. Also lived nearby/inland for: 2017 Irma & 2004 Frances,Jeanne & 1992 Andrew
FLoridian living round here for a while: 2016 Matthew & 1998 Earl lived barrier island landfall. Also lived nearby/inland for: 2017 Irma & 2004 Frances,Jeanne & 1992 Andrew
- Evil Jeremy
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Re: Area of disturbed weather in the Bahamas
Happy pre-season everybody. Looking forward to some relaxing tropical weather over the next couple of days.
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- weathaguyry
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Re: Area of disturbed weather in the Bahamas
Current a lot of shear out there, but it should be interesting as it moves up off of the SE coast. A nice little early season surprise to start off May
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Re: Area of disturbed weather in the Bahamas
Time to return to the tropics, it’s been so long
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
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