Texas Spring 2019

[weatherdude1108]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
244 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2019

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night)...
Isolated streamer showers continue beneath the cap this afternoon.
Aircraft sounding out of AUS do indicate some slight weakening of the
inversion around 750-700mb, but not completely eroded. Thus, for the
most part this evening we expect the deeper and more organized
convection to remain north of the CWA, where cap is eroded and in
closer proximity to better forcing. Although, we can't rule out
isolated thunderstorms across the far northern CWA.

The next shortwave embedded in the southwest flow aloft will move
across portions of the southern Edwards Plateau and into West Central
Texas overnight and Wednesday morning. Most of the hi resolution
model guidance agrees the bulk of the convection will develop through
the morning and into early afternoon just to the north of the CWA.
Convective outflow boundaries may then move south into portions of
the northern CWA late afternoon. We do think the cap will be eroded
or weak enough to sustain convective development during peak heating
into portions of the northern CWA late Wednesday afternoon and early
evening, including most of the eastern Hill Country and Austin metro,
and this is where the higher PoPs are favored. Model forecast
soundings disagree with strength of cap across the southern half of
the CWA. The ARW indicates a complex of storms moving southeast to
the I-10 corridor while the NAM Nest, NMM, and Texas Tech WRF
weakening and dissipating the convection Wednesday evening just south
of Austin as the cap holds.

Where the cap does erode, there will be the potential for severe
storms given MLCAPE values near 3000 J/kg and deep layer shear values
around 40 kts. Can't rule out some very large hail across the
northwest Hill Country and southern Edwards Plateau, where mid level
lapse rate are forecast to be an impressive 8-9 degC/km. In
addition, some pockets of 1-2" of rainfall are possible across the
far northern CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
There are still model differences for the forecast on Thursday, with
the ECMWF and Canadian developing convection in the afternoon across
the Hill Country, closer to a weak frontal boundary, while the GFS
and NAM12 maintain the convection and weak boundary north of the
area. PoPs are trending higher for Thursday night through Friday
night with the next mid level shortwave. It's too early to pinpoint
timing and favored locations this far out, and there are some
indication in the models of convective feedback. Nevertheless,
showers and storms are likely at some point during this time frame.
A few stronger storms will be possible in addition to some pockets
of heavy rainfall, given anomalously high precipitable water values
pooled around 1.5-1.8" over potions of the region. The forecast
trends drier Saturday into Sunday.

The next shortwave, ahead of a deeper closed low digging through
southern California, is forecast to impact South Central Texas Monday
with another chance of showers and storms.

7 day rainfall totals over portions of the region could end up being
2-4" with some isolated pockets in excess of 6".

[CaptinCrunch]

A Tornado Watch is in effect for portions of North and Central Texas until 11:00 PM CDT. Conditions are favorable for the development of severe thunderstorms with a tornado or two possible with the strongest storms. The threats include large hail, tornadoes, and damaging winds. Stay weather aware North & Central Texas!


A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for portions of North Texas from 10:00 PM CDT this evening through Thursday morning. This watch includes locations generally along and north of Interstate 20. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches, with isolated amounts up to 6 inches possible. Flash flooding may occur in urban and poor drainage areas. Heavy rainfall may also cause flooding of creeks, streams, and rivers.

[bubba hotep]

0-3k EHI above 5 across much of DFW

[starsfan65]

0-3k EHI above 5 across much of DFW

What is EHI?

[Bunkertor]

0-3k EHI above 5 across much of DFW

Long time, bubba !

[Bunkertor]

0-3k EHI above 5 across much of DFW

What is EHI?

http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints/314/

[TheProfessor]

Multi-vortex tornado on this stream https://www.twitch.tv/dyb3_ohwxnut

[EnnisTx]

0-3k EHI above 5 across much of DFW

Yikes, Let's hope we stay clear of tornadoes that strong.
Could be a bad evening ahead.

[rwfromkansas]

Storms not severe southwest of DFW....yet. But, stuff up north is already bad.

[1900hurricane]

Twin tornadoes near Dean, TX just a little while ago.

 https://twitter.com/stormchaserQ/status/1123343414265823232

[TheProfessor]

That tornado that's crossing the border now is a beast.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Twin tornadoes near Dean, TX just a little while ago.

https://twitter.com/stormchaserQ/status/1123343414265823232

This pic is literally right by my house. I’ll post pics here in a little bit. I live in Dean/Petrolia.

[Yukon Cornelius]

[bubba hotep]

Tornado Warning for Parker & Tarrant

[TarrantWx]

Tornado Warning for Parker & Tarrant

Well that escalated quickly

Edit: I can hear the sirens not far off to my West

[rwfromkansas]

Seems a broad area of rotation, but it’s there.

[1900hurricane]

The rotation is better defined at the higher tilts. It might be trying to work its way down.

[rwfromkansas]

Bit of a hole and hook. Report of rotating wall cloud.

[Cerlin]

I’d expect that UL rotation to make its way down soon

[1900hurricane]

That cell got flash mobbed by rain in the inflow. Looks like it's going to have to cycle back if it wants to do anything.