Texas Spring 2019

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cheezyWXguy
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Re: Texas Spring 2019

#1061 Postby cheezyWXguy » Tue Apr 30, 2019 6:39 pm

What are the prospects for severe weather in dfw after dark? It seems a bit hard for me to believe that severe weather is likely until 11 as the watch would suggest. Is it expected to fill in as an MCS?
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Re: Texas Spring 2019

#1062 Postby bubba hotep » Tue Apr 30, 2019 7:02 pm

cheezyWXguy wrote:What are the prospects for severe weather in dfw after dark? It seems a bit hard for me to believe that severe weather is likely until 11 as the watch would suggest. Is it expected to fill in as an MCS?


I wouldn't be surprised to see the watch get extended for portions of DFW
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Re: Texas Spring 2019

#1063 Postby Brent » Tue Apr 30, 2019 7:18 pm

bubba hotep wrote:
cheezyWXguy wrote:What are the prospects for severe weather in dfw after dark? It seems a bit hard for me to believe that severe weather is likely until 11 as the watch would suggest. Is it expected to fill in as an MCS?


I wouldn't be surprised to see the watch get extended for portions of DFW


I have no idea what to expect the models have been struggling with this... The HRRR has nothing overnight but its been struggling too
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Re: Texas Spring 2019

#1064 Postby Ntxw » Tue Apr 30, 2019 7:32 pm

The forecast the next several days is not easy. There really isn't a big storm coming out and just flashing the whole state with a variety of weather. We are sitting in a weakness behind the big east coast ridge. Disturbances/ripples will move along this weakness and with very high pwats there will be locally heavy rain where it does fall, quite humid indicative of high pwats. Severe weather is dependent on the parameters day by day. I think we may get some kind of a line tonight but that's iffy.

Tomorrow a few more complexes/storms will ignite early to midday.
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Re: Texas Spring 2019

#1065 Postby Haris » Tue Apr 30, 2019 7:37 pm

Ntxw wrote:The forecast the next several days is not easy. There really isn't a big storm coming out and just flashing the whole state with a variety of weather. We are sitting in a weakness behind the big east coast ridge. Disturbances/ripples will move along this weakness and with very high pwats there will be locally heavy rain where it does fall, quite humid indicative of high pwats. Severe weather is dependent on the parameters day by day. I think we may get some kind of a line tonight but that's iffy.

Tomorrow a few more complexes/storms will ignite early to midday.



Do you Austin can get on the action tom. I only have the euro on my side. I am really wanting something here. The euro has kept teasing us with 3" + rains for wed
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Re: Texas Spring 2019

#1066 Postby Texas Snowman » Tue Apr 30, 2019 7:39 pm

Absolutely torrential rains in Denison right now.

Sounds like 2015 on the roof.
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Re: Texas Spring 2019

#1067 Postby Ntxw » Tue Apr 30, 2019 7:42 pm

Haris wrote:
Ntxw wrote:The forecast the next several days is not easy. There really isn't a big storm coming out and just flashing the whole state with a variety of weather. We are sitting in a weakness behind the big east coast ridge. Disturbances/ripples will move along this weakness and with very high pwats there will be locally heavy rain where it does fall, quite humid indicative of high pwats. Severe weather is dependent on the parameters day by day. I think we may get some kind of a line tonight but that's iffy.

Tomorrow a few more complexes/storms will ignite early to midday.



Do you Austin can get on the action tom. I only have the euro on my side. I am really wanting something here. The euro has kept teasing us with 3" + rains for wed


I'm not sure if tomorrow Austin and company is in the right position for it. Just depends where storms fire off. I think you guys do better later in the week closer to Thursday/Friday.
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Re: Texas Spring 2019

#1068 Postby Haris » Tue Apr 30, 2019 8:38 pm

Ntxw wrote:
Haris wrote:
Ntxw wrote:The forecast the next several days is not easy. There really isn't a big storm coming out and just flashing the whole state with a variety of weather. We are sitting in a weakness behind the big east coast ridge. Disturbances/ripples will move along this weakness and with very high pwats there will be locally heavy rain where it does fall, quite humid indicative of high pwats. Severe weather is dependent on the parameters day by day. I think we may get some kind of a line tonight but that's iffy.

Tomorrow a few more complexes/storms will ignite early to midday.



Do you Austin can get on the action tom. I only have the euro on my side. I am really wanting something here. The euro has kept teasing us with 3" + rains for wed


I'm not sure if tomorrow Austin and company is in the right position for it. Just depends where storms fire off. I think you guys do better later in the week closer to Thursday/Friday.


Thanks. Makes sense
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Re: Texas Spring 2019

#1069 Postby EnnisTx » Tue Apr 30, 2019 9:22 pm

Mostly another dud for hyped up weather across most of North Texas.
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Re: Texas Spring 2019

#1070 Postby WeatherNewbie » Tue Apr 30, 2019 10:14 pm

EnnisTx wrote:Mostly another dud for hyped up weather across most of North Texas.


strange comment given that there was a tornado in the metroplex tonight...
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Re: Texas Spring 2019

#1071 Postby HockeyTx82 » Tue Apr 30, 2019 10:23 pm

WeatherNewbie wrote:
EnnisTx wrote:Mostly another dud for hyped up weather across most of North Texas.


strange comment given that there was a tornado in the metroplex tonight...


Um, ok. Tell that to my kids, who my wife and I had taking shelter here in Ponder while under two consecutive tornado warnings. For a slight risk I think the coverage was appropriate. I would have happily sent you our weather your way.

Social media amateur posts does not equal hype. This was not played up like a few weeks ago. If anything I think people slept on it somewhat.
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Re: Texas Spring 2019

#1072 Postby Brent » Wed May 01, 2019 1:26 am

EnnisTx wrote:Mostly another dud for hyped up weather across most of North Texas.


middle of the enhanced day 1... let's see if this holds up again
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Re: Texas Spring 2019

#1073 Postby CaptinCrunch » Wed May 01, 2019 8:24 am

Only saw a few sprinkles yesterday in SE Tarrant Co. It looked promising, but no Buano.
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Re: Texas Spring 2019

#1074 Postby newtotex » Wed May 01, 2019 8:30 am

SPC has updated the hail specs to 30% for most of DFW with the hatched area to the West. Sun is trying to come out here in Addison
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Re: Texas Spring 2019

#1075 Postby rwfromkansas » Wed May 01, 2019 8:41 am

Got .60 from non-severe edges of that tornadic cell. Will see what happens today.
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Re: Texas Spring 2019

#1076 Postby bubba hotep » Wed May 01, 2019 9:09 am

bubba hotep wrote:
cheezyWXguy wrote:What are the prospects for severe weather in dfw after dark? It seems a bit hard for me to believe that severe weather is likely until 11 as the watch would suggest. Is it expected to fill in as an MCS?


I wouldn't be surprised to see the watch get extended for portions of DFW


My hot take here didn't age well lol

Today looks like another interesting day with the CAMs all over the place.

Image
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Re: Texas Spring 2019

#1077 Postby Lagreeneyes03 » Wed May 01, 2019 9:42 am

The NWS discussion has no mention of hail, like it did last week and the whole DFW metro went nuts.

Is that type of hail still a possiblity or are the conditions not right for hail, but yes for damaging wind, etc? Or are they not mentioning the hail for fear of widespread panic again?
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Re: Texas Spring 2019

#1078 Postby newtotex » Wed May 01, 2019 9:56 am

Lagreeneyes03 wrote:The NWS discussion has no mention of hail, like it did last week and the whole DFW metro went nuts.

Is that type of hail still a possiblity or are the conditions not right for hail, but yes for damaging wind, etc? Or are they not mentioning the hail for fear of widespread panic again?



Hail is still a possibility, most of DFW is in the 30% hail range and SPC states that some of the hail could be quite large. Wind seems to be the biggest threat for the day it seems
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Re: Texas Spring 2019

#1079 Postby CaptinCrunch » Wed May 01, 2019 11:03 am

Storms won't start building till mid to late afternoon much like yesterday, and again like yesterday not everyone will see them.
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Re: Texas Spring 2019

#1080 Postby EnnisTx » Wed May 01, 2019 12:28 pm

HockeyTx82 wrote:
WeatherNewbie wrote:
EnnisTx wrote:Mostly another dud for hyped up weather across most of North Texas.


strange comment given that there was a tornado in the metroplex tonight...


Um, ok. Tell that to my kids, who my wife and I had taking shelter here in Ponder while under two consecutive tornado warnings. For a slight risk I think the coverage was appropriate. I would have happily sent you our weather your way.

Social media amateur posts does not equal hype. This was not played up like a few weeks ago. If anything I think people slept on it somewhat.


You know if you're looking for an apology it's not happening. My statement was true other than one storm that moved across Parker/ Tarrant / Denton Counties it was a dud compared to what was expected.

My son was part of that same Tornado Warning and took shelter as well. Been there done that and this has happened more times than I can count over many years.

No it wasn't as hyped as the "Great Hail Storm" that never materialized in the previous week, but it had plenty of talk and hype via all forms of media/social outlets as well as an issued Tornado Watch and an upgrade to Enhanced Risk.

Short of the story, that's my opinion and you have yours and we all know what they say about opinions.
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