National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1123 AM CDT Fri May 3 2019
.UPDATE...
/Morning Update/
Early morning convection across Central Texas into the coastal
region continues moving to the east, leaving behind stratiform
rain impacting areas east of I-35 and south of I-20. This rain
shield will continue to progress eastward, leaving behind partly
cloudy skies with a few showers and storms possible early this
afternoon across Central Texas.
For North Texas, a shortwave currently across the Texas Panhandle
is providing enough lift for updraft development mainly north of
I-20 and west of US-281. Showers and a few storms are ongoing, and
will likely persist through the next several hours. The overall
severe thunderstorm threat from the ongoing thunderstorms is low.
Later this afternoon, CAMs are in good agreement that the coverage
of showers and storms will decrease for most of North Texas, with
a few showers and storms possible across Central Texas.
As we move into the overnight hours, showers and storms will be
possible, some of which could be strong to severe. There remains
some uncertainty as to the coverage of the thunderstorms, but
if a storm was to become severe, large hail and damaging winds
would be the primary threats. Any storm that produces heavy
rainfall in a short amount of time will also have the potential
for flash flooding, therefore, the Flash Flood Watch will remain
in place through the overnight period.
Looks as if our % chances are going down for later this afternoon.
As for heavy rain potential today into tonight, uncertainty exists
due to the possibility that South Texas convection interferes with
northward moisture return / low-level jet development.
