WPAC: INVEST 92W
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WPAC: INVEST 92W
91W INVEST 190504 1800 3.0N 161.0E WPAC 15 0
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Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
Re: WPAC: INVEST 91W
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
Re: WPAC: INVEST 91W
A circulation could be found south of Kosrae this morning near2N163E.
GFS...NAVGEM and CMC develop it into a tropical cyclone and have it
passing near or over the Marianas around Saturday. ECMWF has it but
keeps it weak and show it staying near Chuuk for a while. The ECMWF
never has it going north of 10N. The ICON model keeps it a weak
circulation passing south of Guam next Sunday. Uncertainty is high
about anything eventually developing...but as always the system will
be watched.
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Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
- mrbagyo
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 91W
I hope this becomes a SW monsoon-enhancing Fish storm.
We need more rain in the Philippines.
We need more rain in the Philippines.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 91W
Typhoon may go close to or could directly affect one the Mariana Islands group thinks EPS.
91W INVEST 190505 0000 3.0N 160.7E WPAC 15 1010
91W INVEST 190505 0000 3.0N 160.7E WPAC 15 1010
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- Kingarabian
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 91W
GFS develops this into a TD within the next 24 hours. 00z Euro up soon
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RIP Kobe Bryant
Re: WPAC: INVEST 91W
Nothing or too weak on Euro 00Z
ABPW10 PGTW 050600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/050600Z-060600ZMAY2019//
RMKS/
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
2.6N 162.1E, APPROXIMATELY 670 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A POORLY ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION WITH PERSISTENT, SCATTERED CONVECTION. RECENT ASCAT
IMAGE SHOWS A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH A SWATH OF 15-20 KNOT WINDS IN
THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS 91W BORDERING
AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (15-25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH
EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-31 CELSIUS)
IN THE SURROUNDING WATERS SUPPORT FUTURE DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE A NORTHWARD TRAJECTORY WITH GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION OVER
THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/050600Z-060600ZMAY2019//
RMKS/
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
2.6N 162.1E, APPROXIMATELY 670 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A POORLY ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION WITH PERSISTENT, SCATTERED CONVECTION. RECENT ASCAT
IMAGE SHOWS A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH A SWATH OF 15-20 KNOT WINDS IN
THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS 91W BORDERING
AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (15-25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH
EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-31 CELSIUS)
IN THE SURROUNDING WATERS SUPPORT FUTURE DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE A NORTHWARD TRAJECTORY WITH GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION OVER
THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
- Kingarabian
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- Location: Honolulu, Hawaii
Re: WPAC: INVEST 91W
00z Euro atleast acknowledged some sort of vort. I'll take a look at the EPS soon.
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RIP Kobe Bryant
Re: WPAC: INVEST 91W
Here GFS continues to perform poorly. Up and down up and down it goes...
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Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
Re: WPAC: INVEST 91W
Both EURO and GFS stronger on approach to the Marianas.
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Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
Re: WPAC: INVEST 91W
https://imgur.com/U8kRKyq
91w may have potential for additional organization later this week as it slowly drifts to the east-northeast.
WFO Guam's Tropical Cyclone Area of Responsibility https://www.weather.gov/gum/AOR
OTHER MODEL LOOPS FOR E. ASIA
ECMWF UKMET GFS CMC NAVY(NOGAPS)
http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/JAPAVN_0z/avnloop.html
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WPAC: INVEST 92W
Previously as 91W
92W INVEST 190506 0600 2.9N 162.0E WPAC 15 1008
ABPW10 PGTW 060600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/060600Z-070600ZMAY2019//
RMKS/
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W: REPLACES INVEST 91W,
WHICH WAS CLOSED DUE TO TECHNICAL ISSUES) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
2.6N 162.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 2.9N 162.0E, APPROXIMATELY 330 NM
SOUTHEAST OF POHNPEI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
060435Z SSMIS 91GHZ PARTIAL MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW AN ILL-DEFINED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS DEPICT FAVORABLE LOW (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH
BROAD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-31 CELSIUS) IN
THE SURROUNDING WATERS SUPPORT FUTURE DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE A NORTH TO NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY WITH GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/060600Z-070600ZMAY2019//
RMKS/
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W: REPLACES INVEST 91W,
WHICH WAS CLOSED DUE TO TECHNICAL ISSUES) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
2.6N 162.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 2.9N 162.0E, APPROXIMATELY 330 NM
SOUTHEAST OF POHNPEI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
060435Z SSMIS 91GHZ PARTIAL MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW AN ILL-DEFINED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS DEPICT FAVORABLE LOW (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH
BROAD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-31 CELSIUS) IN
THE SURROUNDING WATERS SUPPORT FUTURE DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE A NORTH TO NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY WITH GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
Re: WPAC: INVEST 92W: previously INVEST 91W
ABPW10 PGTW 060600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/060600Z-070600ZMAY2019//
RMKS/
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W: REPLACES INVEST 91W,
WHICH WAS CLOSED DUE TO TECHNICAL ISSUES) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
2.6N 162.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 2.9N 162.0E, APPROXIMATELY 330 NM
SOUTHEAST OF POHNPEI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
060435Z SSMIS 91GHZ PARTIAL MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW AN ILL-DEFINED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS DEPICT FAVORABLE LOW (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH
BROAD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-31 CELSIUS) IN
THE SURROUNDING WATERS SUPPORT FUTURE DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE A NORTH TO NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY WITH GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/060600Z-070600ZMAY2019//
RMKS/
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W: REPLACES INVEST 91W,
WHICH WAS CLOSED DUE TO TECHNICAL ISSUES) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
2.6N 162.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 2.9N 162.0E, APPROXIMATELY 330 NM
SOUTHEAST OF POHNPEI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
060435Z SSMIS 91GHZ PARTIAL MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW AN ILL-DEFINED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS DEPICT FAVORABLE LOW (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH
BROAD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-31 CELSIUS) IN
THE SURROUNDING WATERS SUPPORT FUTURE DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE A NORTH TO NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY WITH GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
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- Kingarabian
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- Location: Honolulu, Hawaii
Re: WPAC: INVEST 91W
I suggest a mod to mix this thread with the 92W thread
and rename this 91W thread to 92W thread
or have 92W its own separate invest thread
and rename this 91W thread to 92W thread
or have 92W its own separate invest thread
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
Re: WPAC: INVEST 92W
Ens modelling
https://imgur.com/yI8RkR9
https://imgur.com/25OgJrc
Likely to slowly organise over the next few days, with a better chance for strengthening into a tropical storm later this week
https://imgur.com/yI8RkR9
https://imgur.com/25OgJrc
Likely to slowly organise over the next few days, with a better chance for strengthening into a tropical storm later this week
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 92W
92W is already being discussed in the former 91W thread...
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Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
Re: WPAC: INVEST 92W
euro6208 wrote:92W is already being discussed in the former 91W thread...
I just followed the "de facto" of making a new thread on "new" invests (even if they are just renumbered/same). So I hope a mod merge this thread to the "former"
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
Re: WPAC: INVEST 91W
NWS likes the EURO on this one...
Invest 92W (renamed from 91W), is still large, weak and disorganized,
and though GFS shows steady development and NW movement the next few
days, there is no sign of that actually taking place yet. ECMWF keeps
92W very weak the rest of this week, and that is the favored solution
here at WFO Guam. For now, 92W is not expected to affect the Marianas
significantly.
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Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
- cycloneye
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 92W
Merged boths threads.
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