Texas Spring 2019

[bubba hotep]

Reportedly from that same cell

[bubba hotep]

This thing is beasting!

[Ntxw]

Storm clustering in far west Texas tells me (with timing) MCS by mid morning for I-35 corridor.

[Haris]

Storm clustering in far west Texas tells me (with timing) MCS by mid morning for I-35 corridor.

I know it's tricky but do you think we see the mcs impact the AUS area?

[Ntxw]

Storm clustering in far west Texas tells me (with timing) MCS by mid morning for I-35 corridor.

I know it's tricky but do you think we see the mcs impact the AUS area?

It may miss to the north given sw/ne (but east for the line) storm motion. But like you said can be tricky with outflows.

[bubba hotep]

West Texas convection has mostly fallen apart. Based on Hi-Res ensemble runs from today, that should allow for a MCS to form farther north later tonight. Might also mean a later arrival at DFW increasing svr wx threat.

[Brent]

SPC Day 1 very similar, the enhanced begins right around Dallas. Highest probs remain east of the metro

the HRRR has the initial line mostly missing the entire metro to the north

and definitely has a threatening look early to mid afternoon for the metro with broken cells

[TheProfessor]

Ok, so two things I'm seeing with the 5z HRRR, some of which will likely keep today an enhanced risk.

1. There's a lot of Veer-back-veer profiles in Texas and Arkansas, especially early in the day. However, some of the VBV profiles I saw are higher up in the atmosphere, above the 0-3 km. There are some hypothesis that VBV won't hinder the development of supercells if it's high enough above the surface. I'd say that everyone should stay on guard during the morning and early afternoon.

2. Things start to get iffy after the first round of storms move through on the HRRR. The HRRR develops a second line of storms in Jack and Wise counties. If the 5z HRRR is correct then I believe the enhanced risk may need to be expanded westward. The HRRR show basically no VBV after the first storms pass through, suitable to even fairly high CAPE left, and pretty intense shear and turning in the atmosphere. My only thing that makes me hesitant is how much energy will that first line of storms take up, and will there be enough time for re-destabilization for the 2nd round of storms to tap in to. If the HRRR is correct with it's CAPE value after the first storms pass through, then everyone in the metroplex needs to be on high guard between 1-5PM.

Unfortunately I'm traveling today, so I won't be able to keep up to see if the HRRR continues to trend to a 2nd line of storms developing, though I'll definitely be peaking during my layovers. I hope everyone stays safe today.

[Brent]

Ok, so two things I'm seeing with the 5z HRRR, some of which will likely keep today an enhanced risk.

1. There's a lot of Veer-back-veer profiles in Texas and Arkansas, especially early in the day. However, some of the VBV profiles I saw are higher up in the atmosphere, above the 0-3 km. There are some hypothesis that VBV won't hinder the development of supercells if it's high enough above the surface. I'd say that everyone should stay on guard during the morning and early afternoon.

2. Things start to get iffy after the first round of storms move through on the HRRR. The HRRR develops a second line of storms in Jack and Wise counties. If the 5z HRRR is correct then I believe the enhanced risk may need to be expanded westward. The HRRR show basically no VBV after the first storms pass through, suitable to even fairly high CAPE left, and pretty intense shear and turning in the atmosphere. My only thing that makes me hesitant is how much energy will that first line of storms take up, and will there be enough time for re-destabilization for the 2nd round of storms to tap in to. If the HRRR is correct with it's CAPE value after the first storms pass through, then everyone in the metroplex needs to be on high guard between 1-5PM.

Unfortunately I'm traveling today, so I won't be able to keep up to see if the HRRR continues to trend to a 2nd line of storms developing, though I'll definitely be peaking during my layovers. I hope everyone stays safe today.

yeah its very complicated today,,,, I'm still not sure exactly what to expect. Still could be just one line and done, but the slower trend is definitely disturbing

Unfortunately I'll be working for most of it it seems

[Texas Snowman]

Tornado may be in progress right now across portions of San Angelo. Very significant radar presentation for some time as it approached the city.

[rwfromkansas]

Lots of damage reports around San Angelo, including collapsed buildings.

Also Abilene damage.

These storms are unusually strong for this early.

They also are not in a line.

All models got that wrong apparently.

[Texas Snowman]

758
WFUS54 KSJT 181219
TORSJT
TXC399-181300-
/O.NEW.KSJT.TO.W.0037.190518T1219Z-190518T1300Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
719 AM CDT Sat May 18 2019

The National Weather Service in San Angelo has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
Southeastern Runnels County in west central Texas...

* Until 800 AM CDT.

* At 719 AM CDT, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado
was located near Ballinger, moving north at 30 mph.

This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!

HAZARD...Damaging tornado.

SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado.

IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris
may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile
homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes,
businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete
destruction is possible.

* The tornado will be near...
Ballinger around 730 AM CDT.
Benoit around 735 AM CDT.
Hatchel around 740 AM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include
Ballinger Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To repeat, a large, extremely dangerous and potentially deadly
tornado is on the ground. To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW! Move
to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy
building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in
a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect
yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3179 9972 3162 9997 3168 10006 3189 10002
TIME...MOT...LOC 1219Z 201DEG 27KT 3170 9999

TORNADO...OBSERVED
TORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
HAIL...1.00IN

$$

[cheezyWXguy]

Professor, you called it. The spc has made a major expansion westward to include all of dfw, and even out to Abilene, in the the enhanced risk and sig 10% tornado probabilities. It seems they’ve given up the idea of the mcs working over the atmosphere, and are following the hrrr

[WacoWx]

Are these elevated showers ongoing in dfw going to take any juice outta the atmosphere, leaving us a little more stable by the time the main energy arrives by noon’ish?

[cheezyWXguy]

Are these elevated showers ongoing in dfw going to take any juice outta the atmosphere, leaving us a little more stable by the time the main energy arrives by noon’ish?

I doubt it. The nam and hrrr were showing the atmosphere recovering to 3000-4000j/kg this afternoon, even back when they had the mcs moving through dfw in the morning. With only these streamer showers now, the warm sector should remain virtually untapped until the afternoon.

[WacoWx]

Ty

[newtotex]

Any thoughts on what’s going to happen this afternoon for DFW?

Is the line out west going to move through or will there be more discreet cells out in front? Thought that a line was originally supposed to move through this morning, or am I missing something?

[rwfromkansas]

Storms are lining up now with movement now more east. Likely would kill afternoon severe weather, right?

[cheezyWXguy]

Any thoughts on what’s going to happen this afternoon for DFW?

Is the line out west going to move through or will there be more discreet cells out in front? Thought that a line was originally supposed to move through this morning, or am I missing something?

There was, and it was supposed to work over the atmosphere so the afternoon storms wouldn’t have enough fuel to get strong. However, the line hasn’t played out the way the models showed, and severe probabilities have been increased for this afternoon

[Ntxw]

Earlier this morning when the new storms initiated and fragmented dropped a couple of tornadoes. It's become more organized now and still looking like a midday passage. If anything forms ahead away from the congeal is the best shot for super-cellular mode. There's one lone one (earlier Ballinger cell) but will be fought with more organized activity catching up.