2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

[tolakram]

I'm still thinking normal to a bit less than normal.



I don't think we'll see anything until late August, which means season cancel posts will be rampant.

[TheStormExpert]

You do realize that the bar is set too high most likely as seen in previous years such as 2017. Still it’ll likely be until at least mid-August before anything of concern forms in the Tropical Atlantic.

[NotSparta]

:uarrow: You do realize that the bar is set too high most likely as seen in previous years such as 2017. Still it’ll likely be until at least mid-August before anything of concern forms in the Tropical Atlantic.

I have a hunch that there'll be a weak TS in the MDR again in July owing to the WAM, but nothing significant

[TheStormExpert]

:uarrow: You do realize that the bar is set too high most likely as seen in previous years such as 2017. Still it’ll likely be until at least mid-August before anything of concern forms in the Tropical Atlantic.

I have a hunch that there'll be a weak TS in the MDR again in July owing to the WAM, but nothing significant

Wouldn’t be surprised, especially considering the favorable state of the WAM.

[SFLcane]

Mr Ventrice not that i buy into the euro BUT its fairly typical and many seasons don't get going till mid august. so..

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1138444622718480384

[chaser1]

I think it was Forest Gump who said this? "Atlantic Hurricane Seasons are a lot like a box of chocolates. You never quite know which one you're gonna get"

[chaser1]

To the extent that a lower then average wind shear occurring within a key-hole of the MDR in the far, far, far East Atlantic, in conjunction with healthy monsoonal conditions over W. Africa, may well be conducive for quicker development near and east of the CV Islands - eventually. Beyond that however, i'd say that mid to upper level conditions south of 25N latitude throughout much of the Atlantic basin as a whole..... are a veritable inhospitable wasteland even devoid of counter-clockwise turning tumble-weeds (let alone counter-clockwise disturbances). I agree that intraseason variability may well becoming increasingly difficult to predict. That fact alone isn't nearly enough to suggest to me that the current anomalously high hostile wind shear across the MDR is about to change anytime soon though. It merely suggests that it's possible. Unfortunately, i'm not sure that eye-balling every nuanced 1/4 degree rise and fall of the current ENSO will give rise to whether suddenly more favorable conditions will or will not take place toward the heart of the season. Why? Because i'm not convinced that ENSO is the primary player responsible for the largely hostile conditions that currently prevail right now. Looking at all layers across the Atlantic, the pattern just seems "odd". Rather then clear cut amplified troughing that we often see somewhere over the N. Atlantic or E. CONUS, the mid and upper level set-up seems oddly zonal but in a manner that strikes me supressed further south and with a split flow. This "split" strong westerly zonal flow doesn't seems to originate as a result of Nino contributing conditions, at least not to me. As for the Bermuda High, I'd agree that W. Atlantic surface and mid level heights are fairly weak but it seems to me that the typical positioning of high pressure over the N. Central Atlantic has been oddly displaced much further south and east nearer to the African coast. Mid level heights over the farther east tropical Atlantic appear anomalously high and likely contributing to the ITCZ being suppressed as far south as it is. With or without Uncle SAL, this strange Atlantic 500mb displacement coupled with the 200mb wind anomaly that just wants to rip across most of the MDR like a wild banshee and I just don't think that our present weak Nino (or warm negative ENSO) slowly waning or even becoming outright neutral in the E. PAC will result in significant changes impacting the larger mid latitude flow that looks to me as if it were shoved further south then normal, and less clearly defining a typically more pronounced long wave pattern we would commonly see this time of year. I see no near term fertile nesting ground for Barry other then some spin-up occurring somewhere north of the deep tropics. Beyond that, I'm putting in phone calls to the N. Pole asking for our normal late Spring/early Summer back and to the Equator and asking it to return our ITCZ

[TheStormExpert]

Mr Ventrice not that i buy into the euro BUT its fairly typical and many seasons don't get going till mid august. so..

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1138444622718480384

It's hard to buy into the Euro when the WAM is so favorable, then again the MJO won't be in our favor until at least mid-July, but it's likely overdoing the unfavorableness for the Atlantic like it's been doing so for the past several seasons.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1138781966252294147

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1138780131798016004

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1138787906838040577

[Shell Mound]

As has been the case since 2016 (and arguably since 2012), seasonal forecasts, while always complicated, seem to have become ever more unreliable. Perhaps this is attributable, at least in part, to increased seasonal variability, which, in turn, owes to climate change, at least partially.

[...]

Perhaps 2019 may not be as active as the most "bullish" estimates (including yours truly), but it may still be more active the most "bearish" estimates. Maybe fifteen to sixteen named storms, nine to ten hurricanes, and four to five majors (ACE: ~180-200) constitute a "reasonable" revised bet.

Original post

Visual illustration:


Source

[NotSparta]

As has been the case since 2016 (and arguably since 2012), seasonal forecasts, while always complicated, seem to have become ever more unreliable. Perhaps this is attributable, at least in part, to increased seasonal variability, which, in turn, owes to climate change, at least partially.

[...]

Perhaps 2019 may not be as active as the most "bullish" estimates (including yours truly), but it may still be more active the most "bearish" estimates. Maybe fifteen to sixteen named storms, nine to ten hurricanes, and four to five majors (ACE: ~180-200) constitute a "reasonable" revised bet.

Original post

Visual illustration:

https://i.imgur.com/tovtmrA.png
Source

As someone who will be living in SFL, I strongly recommend you to rethink that prediction

[SoupBone]

As has been the case since 2016 (and arguably since 2012), seasonal forecasts, while always complicated, seem to have become ever more unreliable. Perhaps this is attributable, at least in part, to increased seasonal variability, which, in turn, owes to climate change, at least partially.

[...]

Perhaps 2019 may not be as active as the most "bullish" estimates (including yours truly), but it may still be more active the most "bearish" estimates. Maybe fifteen to sixteen named storms, nine to ten hurricanes, and four to five majors (ACE: ~180-200) constitute a "reasonable" revised bet.

Original post

Visual illustration:

Source

Interesting. I've seen this before somewhere else, and I question why the Texas Gulf Coast isn't part of the threat area. What factors are indicating a lesser threat than Louisiana to Florida this year?

[Shell Mound]

As has been the case since 2016 (and arguably since 2012), seasonal forecasts, while always complicated, seem to have become ever more unreliable. Perhaps this is attributable, at least in part, to increased seasonal variability, which, in turn, owes to climate change, at least partially.

[...]

Perhaps 2019 may not be as active as the most "bullish" estimates (including yours truly), but it may still be more active the most "bearish" estimates. Maybe fifteen to sixteen named storms, nine to ten hurricanes, and four to five majors (ACE: ~180-200) constitute a "reasonable" revised bet.

Original post

Visual illustration:

Source

Interesting. I've seen this before somewhere else, and I question why the Texas Gulf Coast isn't part of the threat area. What factors are indicating a lesser threat than Louisiana to Florida this year?

Mean position of the mid-to-upper-level features, especially the ridge, relative to the location of mean storm formation and intensity in the MDR and eastern Caribbean. Shear is likely to be strong over the western Caribbean and Bay of Campeche, preventing storms from forming in those areas. The main threats to the U.S. may originate in the (eastern) MDR or over the Bahamas or eastern Gulf of Mexico, with the positioning of the ridge favouring LA to FL vs. TX and Mexico. However, the post merely outlines a plausible evolution in 2019 and is not "set."

[SFLcane]

Interesting map but steering is not predictable yet seasonally.

[TheStormExpert]

As has been the case since 2016 (and arguably since 2012), seasonal forecasts, while always complicated, seem to have become ever more unreliable. Perhaps this is attributable, at least in part, to increased seasonal variability, which, in turn, owes to climate change, at least partially.

[...]

Perhaps 2019 may not be as active as the most "bullish" estimates (including yours truly), but it may still be more active the most "bearish" estimates. Maybe fifteen to sixteen named storms, nine to ten hurricanes, and four to five majors (ACE: ~180-200) constitute a "reasonable" revised bet.

Original post

Visual illustration:

https://i.imgur.com/tovtmrA.png
Source

As someone who will be living in SFL, I strongly recommend you to rethink that prediction

I second that! HOPEFULLY, you’re wrong.

[TheStormExpert]

Interesting map but steering is not predictable yet seasonally.

You can get hints though early in the season as to what it may be like come peak season. One thing that lacks is a well established Bermuda High, the -NAO can be to thank for that.

[SoupBone]

Interesting map but steering is not predictable yet seasonally.

You can get hints though early in the season as to what it may be like come peak season. One thing that lacks is a well established Bermuda High, the -NAO can be to thank for that.

Anecdotally, it feels like the death ridge has taken Texas this year. Obviously, that can change, but I remember years of this ridge that sat right on top.

[SFLcane]

Interesting map but steering is not predictable yet seasonally.

You can get hints though early in the season as to what it may be like come peak season. One thing that lacks is a well established Bermuda High, the -NAO can be to thank for that.

Could look a lot like this with a -NAO