Expert Forecasts for 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
- TheStormExpert
- Category 5
- Posts: 8487
- Age: 30
- Joined: Wed Feb 16, 2011 5:38 pm
- Location: Palm Beach Gardens, FL
Re: Expert Forecasts for 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season
The Weather Channel released their 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook this morning. They’re forecasting a slightly above average season with El Niño. Their numbers are 14/7/3.
https://twitter.com/weatherchannel/status/1125343677478526976
https://twitter.com/weatherchannel/status/1125343677478526976
1 likes
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by storm2k.org.
- TheStormExpert
- Category 5
- Posts: 8487
- Age: 30
- Joined: Wed Feb 16, 2011 5:38 pm
- Location: Palm Beach Gardens, FL
Re: Expert Forecasts for 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season
UKMET calling for 13/7/3 from June-November for the 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season (doesn’t include Andrea).
https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1130842367303401472
https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1130842367303401472
1 likes
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by storm2k.org.
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139716
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Expert Forecasts for 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season
Crownweather Services increased the numbers to 14/7/3.
https://twitter.com/crownweather/status/1131191026071351297
https://twitter.com/crownweather/status/1131191026071351297
1 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139716
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Expert Forecasts for 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season
3 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
- Kazmit
- Category 5
- Posts: 1915
- Age: 21
- Joined: Mon Jul 25, 2016 8:49 am
- Location: Williamsburg VA for college, Bermuda otherwise
Re: Expert Forecasts for 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season
Interesting how the chances for a below normal and above normal season are predicted as equal. That was not the case a couple months ago- the spring barrier really affects things.
1 likes
Igor 2010, Sandy 2012, Fay 2014, Gonzalo 2014, Joaquin 2015, Nicole 2016, Humberto 2019
I am only a tropical weather enthusiast. My predictions are not official and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
I am only a tropical weather enthusiast. My predictions are not official and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139716
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Expert Forecasts for 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season
Here is that part of the equal chances.
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center is predicting that a near-normal Atlantic hurricane season is most likely this year. This outlook forecasts a 40% chance of a near-normal season, a 30% chance of an above-normal season and a 30% chance of a below-normal season. The hurricane season officially extends from June 1 to November 30.
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
- SFLcane
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 9627
- Age: 46
- Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
- Location: Lake Worth Florida
Re: Expert Forecasts for 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season
Can’t go wrong there with those ranges I mean come on they're supposed to reflect the inherent uncertainty of these things. But a range of 9-15NS, 5-8H, 2-4 MH or whatever is basically useless. Only takes 1 guess
2 likes
Re: Expert Forecasts for 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season
SFLcane wrote:Can’t go wrong there with those ranges I mean come on they're supposed to reflect the inherent uncertainty of these things. But a range of 9-15NS, 5-8H, 2-4 MH or whatever is basically useless. Only takes 1 guess
So true!! So basically, if the year ends up ANYWHERE between 9/5/2 and 15/8/4...... They'll have "nailed it"
0 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: Expert Forecasts for 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season
SFLcane wrote:Can’t go wrong there with those ranges I mean come on they're supposed to reflect the inherent uncertainty of these things. But a range of 9-15NS, 5-8H, 2-4 MH or whatever is basically useless. Only takes 1 guess
The more I think about "this" forecast, the more it resembles a sports analyst suggesting that the Miami Dolphins have an 80% chance of winning somewhere between 4-10 games this season. Yeah, i'd take those Vegas odds.
0 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- TheStormExpert
- Category 5
- Posts: 8487
- Age: 30
- Joined: Wed Feb 16, 2011 5:38 pm
- Location: Palm Beach Gardens, FL
Re: Expert Forecasts for 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season
Wasn't TSR supposed to release their May Outlook yesterday?
0 likes
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by storm2k.org.
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139716
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Expert Forecasts for 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season
TheStormExpert wrote:Wasn't TSR supposed to release their May Outlook yesterday?
Is at the first post.
1 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139716
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Expert Forecasts for 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: CSU June 4 forecast=14/6/2
CSU goes up a little bit 14/6/2.Here is the abstract.The whole discussion of forecast Is posted in the first post of the thread
We have increased our forecast slightly and now believe that 2019 will have
approximately average activity. There remains considerable uncertainty as to whether El
Niño conditions will persist through the Atlantic hurricane season. The tropical Atlantic
has warmed slightly faster than normal over the past few weeks and now has nearaverage sea surface temperatures. We anticipate a near-average probability for major
hurricanes making landfall along the United States coastline and in the Caribbean. As is
the case with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one
hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them. They should prepare the
same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted.
approximately average activity. There remains considerable uncertainty as to whether El
Niño conditions will persist through the Atlantic hurricane season. The tropical Atlantic
has warmed slightly faster than normal over the past few weeks and now has nearaverage sea surface temperatures. We anticipate a near-average probability for major
hurricanes making landfall along the United States coastline and in the Caribbean. As is
the case with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one
hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them. They should prepare the
same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted.
2 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
- SFLcane
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 9627
- Age: 46
- Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
- Location: Lake Worth Florida
Re: Expert Forecasts for 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season
Pretty active season being predicted...15 tropical storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes.
https://weathertiger.com/tropical/atlan ... june-2019/
https://weathertiger.com/tropical/atlan ... june-2019/
2 likes
-
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 532
- Joined: Mon Jun 30, 2008 9:31 pm
- Location: Jerusalem, Israel
- Contact:
Re: Expert Forecasts for 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season
University of Arizona outlook also favoring an active season with 8 hurricanes, 3 major hurricanes and 150 ACE:
http://has.arizona.edu/sites/default/fi ... 2019_0.pdf
"The Atlantic zonal pseudo-wind stress is actually the determining factor in making this an above average year. The values for this season are quite similar to what they were in 2017, which was a very active year. The difference, however, is this year does not feature the very warm SSTs that 2017 had. Still, this factor increases our prediction"
http://has.arizona.edu/sites/default/fi ... 2019_0.pdf
"The Atlantic zonal pseudo-wind stress is actually the determining factor in making this an above average year. The values for this season are quite similar to what they were in 2017, which was a very active year. The difference, however, is this year does not feature the very warm SSTs that 2017 had. Still, this factor increases our prediction"
5 likes
Re: Expert Forecasts for 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season
JB is about the only one left out there calling for below average season.
1 likes
- ColdFusion
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 406
- Joined: Wed Feb 13, 2008 3:46 pm
- Location: Addison, TX
Re: Expert Forecasts for 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season
cycloneye wrote:Crownweather Services increased the numbers to 14/7/3.
This is an amateur/hobbyist site, is that correct?
0 likes
- crownweather
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 579
- Age: 49
- Joined: Sat Aug 12, 2006 9:21 am
- Location: Sturbridge, Massachusetts
- Contact:
Re: Expert Forecasts for 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season
ColdFusion wrote:cycloneye wrote:Crownweather Services increased the numbers to 14/7/3.
This is an amateur/hobbyist site, is that correct?
We are anything BUT an amateur or a hobbyist & you will find that we are just as professional as the big weather companies. In fact, we don't hype weather unlike some of the A&W media weather companies.
5 likes
Rob Lightbown
Crown Weather Services
https://crownweather.com
Crown Weather Services
https://crownweather.com
- wxman57
- Moderator-Pro Met
- Posts: 22512
- Age: 66
- Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
- Location: Houston, TX (southwest)
Re: Expert Forecasts for 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season
NDG wrote:JB is about the only one left out there calling for below average season.
Depends on what you define as "average". The average over the past 30 seasons is 14/7/3. Cool AMO cycles (like this year) tend to have fewer intense storms (2). I'm not seeing anything to suggest an above-normal season.
1 likes
- wxman57
- Moderator-Pro Met
- Posts: 22512
- Age: 66
- Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
- Location: Houston, TX (southwest)
Re: Expert Forecasts for 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season
crownweather wrote:ColdFusion wrote:cycloneye wrote:Crownweather Services increased the numbers to 14/7/3.
This is an amateur/hobbyist site, is that correct?
We are anything BUT an amateur or a hobbyist & you will find that we are just as professional as the big weather companies. In fact, we don't hype weather unlike some of the A&W media weather companies.
Your website doesn't mention anything about who Crown Weather Services is, or what your qualifications are. "Couldn't find an "about us" section.
1 likes
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: Blown Away, Cpv17, IcyTundra, islandgirl45, Wampadawg and 50 guests