2019 Global ACE: NATL - 129.8 - EPAC - 97.5 - WPAC - 269.4- IO - 88.6
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139766
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: 2019 Global ACE: NATL - 0.0 - EPAC - 0.0 - WPAC - 35.2 - IO - 0.0 - SHEM - 234.0
SHEM ACE (234) is way above the average (182) after the past strong cyclones.
2 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Re: 2019 Global ACE: NATL - 0.4 - EPAC - 0.0 - WPAC - 35.2 - IO - 19.9 - SHEM - 258.0
WPAC ACE YTD is still above average compared to climatology but should decline if this quietness continues.
0 likes
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
Re: 2019 Global ACE: NATL - 0.4 - EPAC - 0.0 - WPAC - 35.2 - IO - 33.5 - SHEM - 258.0
Well for the first time this year, the WPAC ACE will be behind in terms of ACE. 35.2, a majority from the record breaking Cat 5 monster Wutip back in February. ACE climatologically is 33.
2 likes
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
Re: 2019 Global ACE: NATL - 0.4 - EPAC - 0.0 - WPAC - 35.2 - IO - 33.5 - SHEM - 258.0
Wow. For the first time this season, the WPAC is now behind climatologically. 35.2 (35.4). Wutip did his part. July is when ACE should really build up. We'll see.
0 likes
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139766
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: 2019 Global ACE: NATL - 0.4 - EPAC - 1.0 - WPAC - 35.2 - IO - 33.5 - SHEM - 258.0
EPAC has begun to add ACE in 2019,Let's see if it gets over 316 units. (2018 total) To reach that goal it has to be quality over quantity.(Longtrackers cat 3 or higher)
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
- CyclonicFury
- Category 5
- Posts: 1977
- Age: 25
- Joined: Sun Jul 02, 2017 12:32 pm
- Location: NC
- Contact:
Re: 2019 Global ACE: NATL - 0.4 - EPAC - 1.0 - WPAC - 35.2 - IO - 33.5 - SHEM - 258.0
cycloneye wrote:EPAC has begun to add ACE in 2019,Let's see if it gets over 316 units. (2018 total) To reach that goal it has to be quality over quantity.(Longtrackers cat 3 or higher)
I don't think the EPAC will come anywhere close to 316 units this year. Last year had a very active June, and this year we have only had one TS so far. I'm expecting an ACE around half that.
As for the CPAC, I'm expecting a lot of ACE over there, but whether we actually have a significant TC reach Hawaii remains a big question since climatologically hurricane landfalls are rare there.
3 likes
NCSU B.S. in Meteorology Class of 2021. Tropical weather blogger at http://www.cyclonicfury.com. My forecasts and thoughts are NOT official, for official forecasts please consult the National Hurricane Center.
Re: 2019 Global ACE: NATL - 0.4 - EPAC - 1.0 - WPAC - 35.2 - IO - 33.5 - SHEM - 258.0
cycloneye wrote:EPAC has begun to add ACE in 2019,Let's see if it gets over 316 units. (2018 total) To reach that goal it has to be quality over quantity.(Longtrackers cat 3 or higher)
Getting over 300 units of ACE outside of the WPAC is a tough feat. Will need a lot of west trackers that stay south of Hawaii.
4 likes
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
Re: 2019 Global ACE: NATL - 0.4 - EPAC - 2.4 - WPAC - 35.2 - IO - 33.5 - SHEM - 258.0
94E (Barbara?) if caught under the ridge and heads west would help the EPAC/CPAC go well above normal. Also if the modeled systems after do come to fruition the EPAC could be sitting anywhere between 25-35 units of ACE by mid July. Average is about half of that.
1 likes
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139766
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: 2019 Global ACE: NATL - 0.4 - EPAC - 2.8 - WPAC - 35.7 - IO - 33.5 - SHEM - 258.0
Now that Barbara has formed,let's see how many ACE units it gets in the next few days .Models are advertising more activity behind Barbara very soon so it looks like this basin will get a lot to help in the push for 300+.
2 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Re: 2019 Global ACE: NATL - 0.4 - EPAC - 19.0 - WPAC - 35.7 - IO - 33.5
EPAC is now above normal at 19 units.
1 likes
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139766
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: 2019 Global ACE: NATL - 0.4 - EPAC - 19.0 - WPAC - 35.7 - IO - 33.5
Ntxw wrote:EPAC is now above normal at 19 units.
Yep,and let's see how much future Cosme gets to add a little bit more.
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139766
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: 2019 Global ACE: NATL - 0.4 - EPAC - 22.5 - WPAC - 35.7 - IO - 33.5
Barbara did not make it to 20 units but was very close at 19.3. Let's see how much Cosme gets but based on the forecast wont get a lot.
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
- CyclonicFury
- Category 5
- Posts: 1977
- Age: 25
- Joined: Sun Jul 02, 2017 12:32 pm
- Location: NC
- Contact:
Re: 2019 Global ACE: NATL - 3.6 - EPAC - 23.1 - WPAC - 35.7 - IO - 33.5
Barry only was able to generate about 3.2 ACE, so the Atlantic remains slightly below average in ACE. The EPAC has recently dipped below average because of a lull. The WPAC is below average because it has been extremely quiet since Wutip. The NIO is well above average, and it alone has pushed the NHEM above average.
1 likes
NCSU B.S. in Meteorology Class of 2021. Tropical weather blogger at http://www.cyclonicfury.com. My forecasts and thoughts are NOT official, for official forecasts please consult the National Hurricane Center.
- 1900hurricane
- Category 5
- Posts: 6044
- Age: 33
- Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:04 pm
- Location: Houston, TX
- Contact:
Re: 2019 Global ACE: NATL - 3.6 - EPAC - 23.6 - WPAC - 37.7 - IO - 33.5
Since the beginning of March (which you could argue should be the true beginning of the season after the February climatological minimum), the WPac has only put out 2.675 units of ACE out of a total 35.3525. Wutip put up all the rest. Only 1975 and 1998 have had numbers similarly low in that span since 1970. The WPac is preforming at historically bad levels in this part of the season.
3 likes
Contract Meteorologist. TAMU & MSST. Fiercely authentic, one of a kind. We are all given free will, so choose a life meant to be lived. We are the Masters of our own Stories.
Opinions expressed are mine alone.
Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/
Opinions expressed are mine alone.
Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/
Re: 2019 Global ACE: NATL - 3.6 - EPAC - 45.6 - WPAC - 72.3 - IO - 33.5
Up up up!
ACE at 72.3 Normal is (88.2)
0 likes
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
- 1900hurricane
- Category 5
- Posts: 6044
- Age: 33
- Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:04 pm
- Location: Houston, TX
- Contact:
Re: 2019 Global ACE: NATL - 3.6 - EPAC - 46.0 - WPAC - 74.3 - IO - 33.5
As of 00Z August 12th, I have 72.72 for the WPac, 46.28 for the EPac, and 3.2825 for the NAtl (which is just Barry since I don't do subtropical systems in ACE calculations like most people do). Don't quite have my NIO script set up, but it's coming!
I have some Track Integrated Kinetic Energy (TIKE) scripts that are almost ready to use for all basins. If anyone is interested, I can start sharing that data either here or in a new dedicated thread.
I have some Track Integrated Kinetic Energy (TIKE) scripts that are almost ready to use for all basins. If anyone is interested, I can start sharing that data either here or in a new dedicated thread.
3 likes
Contract Meteorologist. TAMU & MSST. Fiercely authentic, one of a kind. We are all given free will, so choose a life meant to be lived. We are the Masters of our own Stories.
Opinions expressed are mine alone.
Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/
Opinions expressed are mine alone.
Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139766
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: 2019 Global ACE: NATL - 3.6 - EPAC - 46.0 - WPAC - 74.3 - IO - 33.5
1900hurricane wrote:As of 00Z August 12th, I have 72.72 for the WPac, 46.28 for the EPac, and 3.2825 for the NAtl (which is just Barry since I don't do subtropical systems in ACE calculations like most people do). Don't quite have my NIO script set up, but it's coming!
I have some Track Integrated Kinetic Energy (TIKE) scripts that are almost ready to use for all basins. If anyone is interested, I can start sharing that data either here or in a new dedicated thread.
Very good.Share it here.
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
- 1900hurricane
- Category 5
- Posts: 6044
- Age: 33
- Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:04 pm
- Location: Houston, TX
- Contact:
Re: 2019 Global ACE: NATL - 3.6 - EPAC - 46.1 - WPAC - 76.8 - IO - 33.5
Ok, as promised, here is my TIKE data for 2019 in the Northern Hemisphere. Data is pulled directly from best track via some Python scripts I've written and put into .csv files, which I've opened in a spreadsheet program and taken a screenshot here. Checking for basin crossers was a bit of a pain in the butt, but I have everything dialed in now.
And since there is little context for TIKE for the most part, here is a graph comparing basins back to 2004, when wind radii data was regularly kept in the bdecks across all basins. It might be worth noting that JTWC claims their wind radii data isn't of the best quality until as recently as 2016, but this should give at least an idea of how the basins compare against each other.
Also worth noting that the 2018 EPac data should still rise a little when the CPHC releases all their portions of best track data. For the WPac and NIO that year, I used the preliminary data since JTWC has yet to release the final best track data (still).
EDIT*: Added SHem data too.
And since there is little context for TIKE for the most part, here is a graph comparing basins back to 2004, when wind radii data was regularly kept in the bdecks across all basins. It might be worth noting that JTWC claims their wind radii data isn't of the best quality until as recently as 2016, but this should give at least an idea of how the basins compare against each other.
Also worth noting that the 2018 EPac data should still rise a little when the CPHC releases all their portions of best track data. For the WPac and NIO that year, I used the preliminary data since JTWC has yet to release the final best track data (still).
EDIT*: Added SHem data too.
5 likes
Contract Meteorologist. TAMU & MSST. Fiercely authentic, one of a kind. We are all given free will, so choose a life meant to be lived. We are the Masters of our own Stories.
Opinions expressed are mine alone.
Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/
Opinions expressed are mine alone.
Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/
- 1900hurricane
- Category 5
- Posts: 6044
- Age: 33
- Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:04 pm
- Location: Houston, TX
- Contact:
Re: 2019 Global ACE: NATL - 3.2825 - EPAC - 46.28 - WPAC - 75.465 - NIO - 35.205
https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/1163594369615708161
https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/1163595276189339649
https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/1163595276189339649
2 likes
Contract Meteorologist. TAMU & MSST. Fiercely authentic, one of a kind. We are all given free will, so choose a life meant to be lived. We are the Masters of our own Stories.
Opinions expressed are mine alone.
Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/
Opinions expressed are mine alone.
Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/
Re: 2019 Global ACE: NATL - 3.6 - EPAC - 46.1 - WPAC - 76.9 - IO - 33.5
Indeed. Having the World's most active basin struggling like this is something.
1 likes
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: Deshaunrob17, Jr0d, Kludge, Pas_Bon and 48 guests