Texas Summer 2019

[TheProfessor]

Wow, what a beautiful cloudy day here in NOLA, 83 degrees and dew points only in the mid 70s.

[Rgv20]

Tornado Warning
TXC261-489-242230-
/O.NEW.KBRO.TO.W.0002.190624T2159Z-190624T2230Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
459 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2019

The National Weather Service in Brownsville has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
Southwestern Kenedy County in Deep South Texas...
Northwestern Willacy County in Deep South Texas...

* Until 530 PM CDT.

* At 459 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near Norias, or 10 miles south of Armstrong, moving
south at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree
damage is likely.

* This dangerous storm will be near...
Rudolph around 530 PM CDT.

This includes US Highway 77 between mile markers 740 and 758.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

To report severe weather contact your nearest law enforcement agency.
They will send your report to the National Weather Service office in
Brownsville.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 2663 9763 2654 9791 2681 9796 2687 9777
TIME...MOT...LOC 2159Z 340DEG 12KT 2678 9785

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...<.75IN

$$

BRADY

[Haris]

Record low of 67F at camp mabry today ... ... ... not at 5 am ... ... ... but 314pm. Unreal.

63F at my place this afternoon.



upload pic

[Texas Snowman]

Whoa....

———-
@TxStormChasers — 1028PM: Life-threatening flash flooding expected in portions of the Rio Grande Valley (including Harlingen) with another 4 to 8 inches possible by 3 AM - on top of the 6-8" already. #rgvwx #txwx #TADD

[Brent]

Whoa....

———-
@TxStormChasers — 1028PM: Life-threatening flash flooding expected in portions of the Rio Grande Valley (including Harlingen) with another 4 to 8 inches possible by 3 AM - on top of the 6-8" already. #rgvwx #txwx #TADD

over a foot on radar estimated, 4 feet of water reported in some town west of Brownsville

reading this thread today, it is summer right?

[Rgv20]

So much rain! Some of the short range models did a really good job on the Radar Forecast 12 to 18 hrs out. Officially at Edinburg there was a 52mph wind gust.

[DonWrk]

Was watching all that at KBRO unfold. Quite the scene!

[CaptinCrunch]

Whoa....

———-
@TxStormChasers — 1028PM: Life-threatening flash flooding expected in portions of the Rio Grande Valley (including Harlingen) with another 4 to 8 inches possible by 3 AM - on top of the 6-8" already. #rgvwx #txwx #TADD

over a foot on radar estimated, 4 feet of water reported in some town west of Brownsville

reading this thread today, it is summer right?

Love me some summer El Nino...

The current El Nino state is +0.8 and has a 66% chance to continue through August, and a 55% chance to continue through the end of 2019. El Nino has held steady @ +0.8 since the NDJ reading.

Should this current El Nino continue into December maintaining a NOI +0.8/1.0 would really bold well for us increasing our chances for colder/wetter start to Winter that I hope prevails for the entire season.

[ColdFusion]

Wow, what a beautiful cloudy day here in NOLA, 83 degrees and dew points only in the mid 70s.

Good, maybe it will keep people from heading to the lake for heat relief!!!

"The [Louisiana Department of Health] is urging people to avoid contact with the water in Lake Pontchartrain and to avoid eating seafood caught in the lake."

[TheProfessor]

Wow, what a beautiful cloudy day here in NOLA, 83 degrees and dew points only in the mid 70s.

Good, maybe it will keep people from heading to the lake for heat relief!!!

"The [Louisiana Department of Health] is urging people to avoid contact with the water in Lake Pontchartrain and to avoid eating seafood caught in the lake."

Yeah, this is due to the Algae bloom, with all the nutrients coming out of the Mississippi River this year due to flooding, it's setting up to be a bad year for the Northern Gulf in regards to fishing.

Edit: It would seem that Lake Pontchartrain itself was impacted by the opening of one of the spillways that mixed in rich nutrients into the lake.

[Ralph's Weather]

Tyler is seeing a pretty good storm right now.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Just got back from Salem, MA. Highs in the mid 60s everyday and overcast. It made our summers seem even more unbearable (which they are).

[Haris]

Don't see Austin getting to a 100 thru july 8th.

[Ralph's Weather]

Don't see Austin getting to a 100 thru july 8th.

Tyler has yet to see over 95 and likely won't through at least July 10th.

[Portastorm]

Don't see Austin getting to a 100 thru july 8th.

As I pointed out to Haris, if Austin does not reach 100 this June it will be the first time we've had a June with no triple digit heat since 2015.

[bubba hotep]

The latest CPC 3 month outlook is essentially a conservative take on the latest Euro Weeklies. IMHO, the CPC has a warm.bias in their outlooks so that is an impressive below normal area for July - September. The Euro Weeklies have the below normal temps and above normal precipitation expanded more SE into North Texas.

[Brent]

on this date in 1980 DFW hit 113, still the hottest temperature ever recorded at the airport

[weatherdude1108]

Most of my time in Houston was dry. I got to downtown and southeast Houston, and the light rain started. On my way out of Houston to Beaumont, the rain was non-stop all the way to Beaumont. It continued while I was in Beaumont, and finally stopped. Wet place! Got back to Austin and we had a passing shower from the sea breeze. Humidity feels like Houston.lol

Loving this forecast for late June!

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
255 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2019

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night)...
Isolated showers and thunderstorms developed this afternoon along a
moisture gradient across the Edwards Plateau and along the seabreeze
across the Coastal Plains. The seabreeze as of 2:30 pm has worked
into the I-35 corridor. Rainfall rates with the morning activity were
enough to produce between 2-4 inches of rain, while LCRA hydromet
gauge readings from this afternoon in general show 0.50-0.75 inches
from the heaviest showers and storms. Brief gusty winds and lightning
will also be possible. Precipitation will mainly be diurnally driven
tonight, with only a few lingering showers lasting past 10pm across
the Rio Grande Plains. These are in response to a 700mb trough that
has helped increase lift during the day today providing for the
scattered activity.

High pressure and more stable air begins to build in tomorrow with
any afternoon shower and thunderstorm activity being limited to the
Coastal Plains as onshore flow continues. Afternoon highs continue to
run near normal with the increased sunshine tomorrow.

&&

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
With the surface ridge to the east and a 500mb ridge to the west
stable and dry weather continues Friday across the area. Afternoon
highs may creep up another degree into the low to mid 90s for the
afternoon hours, but this remains near seasonal normals for late
June.

By Saturday all of the global models show a TUTT low and/or inverted
trough developing near Louisiana across the northern Gulf of
Mexico. This trough will retrograde westward across South Central
Texas through the day on Sunday and then set up along the Rio Grande
Plains for Sunday through at least next Wednesday. With the upper
level ridge across the western CONUS and another mid-level ridge
building across the Gulf of Mexico this trough/shear axis becomes
stuck between these upper highs and remains around South Central
Texas through much of next week. By Wednesday into Thursday it does
appear that the axis begins to weaken and more stable air may return
to the area. A few important notes about this trough before moving
onto the impacts: 1) The GFS increased precipitable water values by
the early to middle part of next week from around 1.5 inches on
Sunday to 2-2.5 inches by Tuesday and Wednesday of next week. This
may aid in increasing rain rates with any storms that are around
these two days, 2) The 12z Canadian appeared strongest with the
inverted trough compared to the other global models and focused the
precipitation more along the I-35 corridor rather than the Coastal
Plains for Sunday through Wednesday.

With the TUTT/inverted trough in place rain chances will persist for
late Saturday through at least Wednesday. The best chances will be
during the afternoon hours where the sea breeze and the sun will
provide additional lift along with the trough. This lift, within a
moist tropical environment, should allow for isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms each afternoon. With increasing Gulf
moisture it looks like the best chances of rain will be Tuesday into
Wednesday, but as this is a forecast a week out and the movement and
location of the trough will impact where the moderate rain occurs
this may chance over the coming days.

Regardless of where the rain falls the increased cloudcover and
shower/thunderstorm activity will help keep afternoon highs below
normal for Sunday into the middle of next week. Temperatures behind
the outflows and sea breeze will also potentially drop due to the
rain cooled downdraft air.

[bubba hotep]

Storms chasing the boundary into southern Dallas County

[gpsnowman]

The satellite cloud movement looks cool. Almost as if parts of Texas are on fire. Anyway, a storm is just missing me to the east. Windy and dark towards Dallas.