2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

[TheStormExpert]

Something about this season is feeling like 2002, given the pattern the models are indicating, the early inactivity, and how completely dead the Atlantic looks in general. Are there any indicators as far as that being an analog?

The SST profile in the Atlantic on this date in 2002 was much less favorable than the current SST state. Not to mention the El Niño was more pronounced and East-based at the time.

To put it into perspective, 2017 is a better analog than 2002.

2002


2019

[HurricaneEnzo]

Hard to believe the last, what I would consider powerful, Carribbean runners were way back in 2007 with Dean and Felix! Matthew would probably be the next closest thing we have had. Very powerful but didnt really traverse most of the Carribbean like the others. They use to seem so much more frequent but maybe I'm just not remembering correctly. I believe I read the Euro was indicating lower shear values in the carribbean during the heart of the season?

[Hurricaneman]

Mark sudduth’s newest video is very concerning as west of 50w has record breaking heat content for this time of year, let’s hope an El Niño makes a comeback or its going to possibly get really ugly, even 2017 didn’t give this kind of heat content in that area

[TheStormExpert]

Watch the Gulf of Mexico AGAIN come October. May be more October mischief for Florida if that’s the case. I remember not too long ago someone pointed out that the Euro is also hinting the same as well for October.

 https://twitter.com/bennollweather/status/1145715181672161287

[AutoPenalti]

Ridge is quite strong if anything gets going by the next two weeks.

[StruThiO]

 https://twitter.com/mikarantane/status/1145949327103336450

[NotSparta]

http://i65.tinypic.com/i4g7jb.png

Ridge is pretty strong for this time of year if anything gets going by the next two weeks.

Just to note, a strong ridge in this region tends to mean a weak TUTT

[StruThiO]

Good thread about enso and mjo

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1146065256491302914

[chaser1]

Watch the Gulf of Mexico AGAIN come October. May be more October mischief for Florida if that’s the case. I remember not too long ago someone pointed out that the Euro is also hinting the same as well for October.

https://twitter.com/bennollweather/status/1145715181672161287

I personally am NOT on-board with Ben's suggestion that the October/November CanSIPS represents Gulf of Mexico tropical development suddenly "springing to life". That's not to suggest that one or two large sloppy T.D.'s or T.S.'s wouldn't develop within this higher latitude swath that covers the GOM to well east of the Bahamas. Even so, wouldn't Climo here primarily imply a greater rainfall concern then a major wind event? This looks like a set-up where I'd expect to see development (tropical or sub-tropical) primarily east of Florida with general forward motion being north and east into the N. Atlantic. I wonder if this depiction of deeper precip is merely suggestive of a continuance or stronger "El Nino-like" mid to upper level flow in conjunction with stronger early Fall cold fronts making their way south and draping across roughly 20N latitude.

[Shell Mound]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1146080736811868161



 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1146086177402957828



 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1146089976989454336



 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1146121154588860416

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1146422225060450305

[StruThiO]

While shear can and will change on a dime, is it just me or does this seem rather low for an El Nino in early July.

[StruThiO]

GEFS showing very anomalously low shear in the extended..

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1146487730404306944

[NotSparta]

While shear can and will change on a dime, is it just me or does this seem rather low for an El Nino in early July.

https://i.imgur.com/WKUORlG.png

If the GEFS know anything, this will drop 20kts in the next couple weeks

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1146490232591781889

[StruThiO]

 https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1146491819758358529




 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1146491485585575938

[USTropics]

I wanted to compare SAL in the month of June to past years, so below is an animated loop of SAL in the month of June starting in 2002. Data is derived from NASA's NEO AQUA/MODIS Aerosol Optical Depth. It does appear SAL was anomalously low for June 2019 (not a forecast for future months, just an observation):



src data: https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/global-maps/MODAL2_M_AER_OD

[Shell Mound]

Very important—and potentially bad—indicators for the prospects of U.S. impacts by peak season:

 https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status/1146479491415511042



 https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status/1146481379103952898



 https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status/1146831219277148160



 https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status/1146832215042666497



 https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status/1146836371883118592



 https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status/1146837609001422853

[Hurricaneman]

Very important—and potentially bad—indicators for the prospects of U.S. impacts by peak season:

https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status/1146479491415511042
https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status/1146481379103952898
https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status/1146831219277148160
https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status/1146832215042666497
https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status/1146836371883118592
https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status/1146837609001422853

Looks like 2004 may be emerging as a top analog which means from the Carolinas to New Orleans May be at highest risk