Texas Summer 2019

[TheProfessor]

Just thought I'd check the long-range on a whim. Didn't expect this decent QPF. Intriguing(?). The GEFS is more believable.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019070212/gfs_apcpn_scus_64.png
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2019070212/gfs-ens_apcpn_us_64.png

I didn't look at the 12z GFS today, but that would be pretty bad for a lot of the lower Mississippi Valley as the river is still fairly high as of today.

[weatherdude1108]

Just heard thunder here at the office. Looks like some tropical thundershowers in the area. Wish we could get this all Summer.

[gpsnowman]

The dreaded HP will pay us a visit later this week into next. No massive heat wave but temps approaching 100 look possible.

[Brent]

The dreaded HP will pay us a visit later this week into next. No massive heat wave but temps approaching 100 look possible.

boo!

[Haris]

More than the heat, I hate all the bugs in summer. Which are ... I guess ... correlated to eachother.


#NeverSummer

[gpsnowman]

Happy Birthday America!! And happy 4th of July to all Storm2kers. Today will be the last "cool" day for a while. Like Glenn Frey omce said, "The heat is on."

[Ntxw]

Ahh yes the next 6 weeks is the peak of annual temperatures (climo). Get through it and life gets better after.

[bubba hotep]

Happy 4th!

The Euro Ensembles show about a week of seasonal temps at DFW starting around Sunday with daily highs at DFW from 96 - 98F. The question is does that continue or do we revert back to a wetter cooler pattern after that stretch?

In the longer range, a standing wave looks to setup over Africa and that should enhance AEW activity. The MDR looks to stay somewhat hostile to development so that gives me some concern about the Gulf. Waves that are robust coming off of Africa but that don't develop in the MDR are the seeds of Gulf and EPAC systems.

[bubba hotep]

For me the biggest long range question is, do we see Fall this year? Do we get some early season cool fronts in late August and September?

[Ntxw]

Happy 4th!

The Euro Ensembles show about a week of seasonal temps at DFW starting around Sunday with daily highs at DFW from 96 - 98F. The question is does that continue or do we revert back to a wetter cooler pattern after that stretch?

In the longer range, a standing wave looks to setup over Africa and that should enhance AEW activity. The MDR looks to stay somewhat hostile to development so that gives me some concern about the Gulf. Waves that are robust coming off of Africa but that don't develop in the MDR are the seeds of Gulf and EPAC systems.

This warmth is nothing. Even with a somewhat decent ridge 95-100F is not really a Texas heat wave, so the ground level soil moisture is clearly having an impact on feedback. A ridge lesser than this in 2011 would yield a week of 100-105+.

NAO/AO/EPO have been largely negative dominant since April. I'm going to gamble early Fall.

Last year by now we accumulated no less than 7 100F+ days. Only to add 14 more by the end of the month with 109F peak. Don't believe we will repeat that this July.

[weatherdude1108]

The EWX had an informative video on this past Spring weather, and Summer 2019 thoughts.

South Central Texas Summer 2019 Seasonal Outlook
https://youtu.be/2p_RI3ym-6M

[TheProfessor]

Well it's definitely been toasty the last couple of days. Surface temps were fine, but the head index has been poking up to 100-102. We had some family come down from DFW and we went to Gulf Shores Alabama because the Mississippi and Louisiana beaches are closed. The heat index was actually closer to 105 there but we had a nice cool ocean to relax in, which helped until the sun began to set.

[Tireman4]

For the umpteenth year, I loathe Summer!

[bubba hotep]

12z 3k NAM is pretty stormy for N. Texas today and SPC has the area included in "Marginal"

[bubba hotep]

[Cerlin]

It is muggy out today...very humid almost Houston-like...I could definitely use some storms today.

[Ntxw]

Something may try to form in the northern/northeast gulf.

So naturally we get dry after today and hotter

[TheProfessor]

Something may try to form in the northern/northeast gulf.

So naturally we get dry after today and hotter

Something my family and I will be watching very closely.

[funster]

The July rain cometh.... nothing severe at the moment. Some lightning bolts.

 https://twitter.com/NWSFortWorth/status/1147629964411461632

[Brent]

The July rain cometh.... nothing severe at the moment. Some lightning bolts.

https://twitter.com/NWSFortWorth/status/1147629964411461632

Yup getting dark here

Our streak of it raining on the weekend may remain intact lol