2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
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- gatorcane
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
GFS with genesis days 6-7 rapidly developing this into a hurricane:
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
If the GFS is correct, we should see signs in the near future. Origins can be traced to the current frontal boundary stalled in the Midwest. Surface analysis forecasts show a shortwave trough cutting off in 24-36 hours just north of Texas that moves around the periphery of the high pressure towards the EC:
You can see this evolution in the 850mb vort loop below from the 18z run:
You can see this evolution in the 850mb vort loop below from the 18z run:
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- gatorcane
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
The Euro shows a similar evolution and path for the piece of energy that could spawn genesis. It is also possible we see some subtropical development. Looks to be a bit north of where the GFS has it at 144 hours:
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
Seems the GFS digs the high pressure area further south than the ECMWF, resulting in a more SE motion as the shortwave trough rounds the periphery of the high pressure area. You can follow the vorticity of the shortwave trough with the high-res ECMWF run below. Subtle signs to watch for in the short-term to see which model has a more accurate grasp on the evolution.
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
One other interesting note, the GFS has performed quite well in the last week or so when looking at anomaly correlations, catching up quickly with the ECMWF:
Below is a model verification for the GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET as well in regards to 500mb heights (red lines are previous forecasts, blue is current analysis).
GFS:
ECMWF:
UKMET:
Below is a model verification for the GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET as well in regards to 500mb heights (red lines are previous forecasts, blue is current analysis).
GFS:
ECMWF:
UKMET:
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- Hypercane_Kyle
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
Looks like this upcoming trough could spin 1-2 tropical cyclones up. GFS spins one up (Barry) by 144hrs, and another by 162hrs (Chantal).
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- TheStormExpert
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
Watch the Tropical Atlantic also in about a weeks time for a potential brief spin up.
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
TheStormExpert wrote:Watch the Tropical Atlantic also in about a weeks time for a potential brief spin up.
Looking at the 850 mb GFS, there does appear to be an increase of vorticity showing up with a few tropical waves to move off the African coast during the upcoming couple of weeks. While the ITCZ does look to become a bit more active in the E. Atlantic, surface pressures still appear to be high out there for the time being. The only thing I see trying to briefly spin up that NHC has lately developed a keen interest in, might be a small T.F. (Tropical Farce) that might develop along a weak frontal boundary east of the Carolina's. Perhaps it might offer a brief 12/24 warm core with just enough convection to excite the powers that be to tag it with a name.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- Hypercane_Kyle
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
00z ECMWF has a TC over the GA/SC border by 240 hours.
Last edited by Hypercane_Kyle on Thu Jul 04, 2019 11:14 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
Hypercane_Kyle wrote:12z ECMWF has a TC over the GA/SC border by 240 hours.
I believe that was last night's 00z run, still a few hours away from the 12z run for today. GFS just started running. Last night's 00z ECMWF run at 240 hrs:
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- Hypercane_Kyle
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
USTropics wrote:Hypercane_Kyle wrote:12z ECMWF has a TC over the GA/SC border by 240 hours.
I believe that was last night's 00z run, still a few hours away from the 12z run for today. GFS just started running. Last night's 00z ECMWF run at 240 hrs:
https://i.imgur.com/Khu1sHb.png
Was a typo on my part. Edited.
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
The past few ECMWF and GFS runs are in close agreement with the evolution of a shortwave trough breaking off from the frontal boundary over the Midwest in the next 24 hours and driving it SE around the periphery of the high pressure system towards GA and the EC. The models have bounced around as to the strength, with the 12z GFS forecasting a weaker shortwave trough stalling over GA/SC before becoming elongated and stretched out. The tail end extends into the GOM in the long range, where a weak vort signature develops. Below is a loop of this evolution:
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
The 12z ECMWF run almost mirrors the 12z GFS run, see loop below:
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- northjaxpro
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
I would tend to think that if we see some type of home-grown development in the next week, I like the EURO's thinking of something possibly getting triggered in the ĢOM. GFS definitely showing different scenario with the short wave trough. We will watch and see how this plays out . Meanwhile, definitely nothing coming from out in the Tropical Atlantic anytime soon with SAL continuing to keep a lid on things out there.
Last edited by northjaxpro on Thu Jul 04, 2019 3:25 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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- northjaxpro
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
jconsor wrote:https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1146855914928037888
Well timed post after mine. This is the main reason and factor why I like the EURO's potential GOM scenario. SST's are extremely warm in the GOM currently. We will have to watch this potential very carefully next week!.
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NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!
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Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019
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Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019
- gatorcane
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
Euro ensemble mean showing lowering of pressure along the northern Gulf coast. Looks like the mean is more west than the op run:
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- TheStormExpert
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
Background state should become more favorable for GoM tropical shenanigans next week.
https://twitter.com/michaelrlowry/status/1146878670944047104
https://twitter.com/michaelrlowry/status/1146878670944047104
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