Watching GOM for tropical development (Is INVEST 92L)

[crownweather]

I have to wonder if the past biases of the model guidance are still valid with their upgrades.

In the past, the GFS model tended to be too weak with ML ridges, while the European model tended to be too strong with its forecast of ML ridges.

This might be too simple this far out, but I wonder if a solution somewhere in the middle of the GFS/European model solutions may be the best way to go. That is if those biases have not been corrected with the upgrades.

[NDG]

I have to wonder if the past biases of the model guidance are still valid with their upgrades.

In the past, the GFS model tended to be too weak with UL ridges, while the European model tended to be too strong with its forecast of UL ridges.

This might be too simple this far out, but I wonder if a solution somewhere in the middle of the GFS/European model solutions may be the best way to go. That is if those biases have not been corrected with the upgrades.

You mean mid level ridges, not UL ridges?

[crownweather]

I have to wonder if the past biases of the model guidance are still valid with their upgrades.

In the past, the GFS model tended to be too weak with UL ridges, while the European model tended to be too strong with its forecast of UL ridges.

This might be too simple this far out, but I wonder if a solution somewhere in the middle of the GFS/European model solutions may be the best way to go. That is if those biases have not been corrected with the upgrades.

You mean mid level ridges, not UL ridges?

Fixed. Doing too many things this morning.

[Hurricaneman]

The thing is that systems like this do happen so this could be anything from the 2016 flood event to Alicia 1983 but if I’m a betting man something similar to 2002 Bertha to Edouard 2008 is most likely in terms of intensity leaning towards the Bertha 2002 but as always remain vigilant and pay attention to the NHC forecasts

[wxman57]

There is still considerable model disagreement on the eventual solution. Euro says TS into MS, GFS & Canadian have a weak low briefly moving off the FL Panhandle then moving inland. Anyone here have a link to the UKMET? We don't get that model in-house. For now, I'd say there's a chance of a brief TS in the Gulf Fri/Sat. Most likely nothing more. Main threat may be heavy rain regardless of any development.

[Aric Dunn]

There is still considerable model disagreement on the eventual solution. Euro says TS into MS, GFS & Canadian have a weak low briefly moving off the FL Panhandle then moving inland. Anyone here have a link to the UKMET? We don't get that model in-house. For now, I'd say there's a chance of a brief TS in the Gulf Fri/Sat. Most likely nothing more. Main threat may be heavy rain regardless of any development.

UKMET is similar to the Euro except the trough over the western atlantic sticks around and snags it at the end. Close to the EPS members.

[crownweather]

There is still considerable model disagreement on the eventual solution. Euro says TS into MS, GFS & Canadian have a weak low briefly moving off the FL Panhandle then moving inland. Anyone here have a link to the UKMET? We don't get that model in-house. For now, I'd say there's a chance of a brief TS in the Gulf Fri/Sat. Most likely nothing more. Main threat may be heavy rain regardless of any development.

I get the UKMET model through F5Weather and the 00Z UKMET model keeps the low pressure system over the far eastern Gulf of Mexico very close to the region from Tampa to the Big Bend from Thursday to Friday morning. UKMET model forecasts landfall in Big Bend of Florida around 18Z Friday as a low-moderate strength TS.

[Kingarabian]

There is still considerable model disagreement on the eventual solution. Euro says TS into MS, GFS & Canadian have a weak low briefly moving off the FL Panhandle then moving inland. Anyone here have a link to the UKMET? We don't get that model in-house. For now, I'd say there's a chance of a brief TS in the Gulf Fri/Sat. Most likely nothing more. Main threat may be heavy rain regardless of any development.

http://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/data/raw/wt/wtnt82.egrr..txt

[northjaxpro]

That UKMET particular scenario would bring very heavy rainfall potential to North and Northeast Florida if it comes to fruition.

[Aric Dunn]

given the environment forecasted in this area the only thing that would hold this back is time over water,...

[stormlover2013]

Once we get something to develop then we will see how it plays out, just like always 2-3 days before hand is usually when we will know what will happen.

[NDG]

Very clearly the mid to lower level vorticity is seen on satellite and 12z sounding, forecasted to track towards the NE GOM, A lot people are already looking at the NE GOM this morning but there is nothing but a surface trough at the moment.

[Aric Dunn]

Once we get something to develop then we will see how it plays out, just like always 2-3 days before hand is usually when we will know what will happen.

it will be offshore in 2 to 3 days....

[wxman57]

Found the UKMET out to 144 hrs on weathermodels.com (Maue's site). It has a very weak low near the FL Peninsula on Friday that moves inland Saturday. It appears that the EC is quite the outlier in developing a stronger storm and moving it west vs. NE. I would tend not to believe it at this time.

[Aric Dunn]

ICON is farther west heading into biloxi.

[stormlover2013]

Once we get something to develop then we will see how it plays out, just like always 2-3 days before hand is usually when we will know what will happen.

it will be offshore in 2 to 3 days....

Yeah I know, wed will be the day we should have a clue

[drezee]

Once we get something to develop then we will see how it plays out, just like always 2-3 days before hand is usually when we will know what will happen.

it will be offshore in 2 to 3 days....

I hope it stays onshore. Nobody wants a Juan scenario...

[Steve]

NAM keeps it along shore toward the western Panhandle

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 70712&fh=6

[Aric Dunn]

GFS is farther west. still not all to organized though.

weaker trough off east coast. looks more like Euro and ICON now.

[KimmieLa]

Didn't the CMC get an upgrade last week? If so, this could be a good test?? Our German friends don't need to scare NW Florida like that in 00z ICON! lol. 100mph gusts in PC area.... Not much trees left to blow or break. Busy week ahead.

I drove Interstate 10 about 5 weeks after the hurricane last year. The tree damage was incredible. Hoping this area does not receive any threatening weather.