Watching GOM for tropical development (Is INVEST 92L)

[TheProfessor]

Only just saw that NHC bumped it up to 50% odds this afternoon.

[MississippiWx]

I hate to say it, but the Mississippi and Louisiana coastlines really need a weak hurricane to help clear out the toxic algae bloom that has developed. The entire Mississippi beach is closed to the public because of the algae. The freshwater from the Mississippi is killing marine life. While flooding could be bad, our marine areas desperately need a small surge of salt water. If we get a system to come this way, I hope it is fast-moving enough to limit flooding somewhat.

[chaser1]

Interesting discussion. I'm still thinking neither a Dolly or a Debbie and more of a coastal hugger with the risk of flooding precip shifting more westward. If the Euro synoptics are correct, whatever this does/does not develop into would seem increasingly blocked from any poleward exit into the westerlies. This mess could well drag westward toward the Texas coast with time. Question still appears to be "how far" south, but now might also be will it emerge as far east (NE Gulf) as originally thought verses closer to Apalach?

[drezee]

Interesting solution on the 12z, environment is ripe for development. Pressure falls to 989mb between Alexandria and Mccomb. Better hope it isnt still over water

[chaser1]

I hate to say it, but the Mississippi and Louisiana coastlines really need a weak hurricane to help clear out the toxic algae bloom that has developed. The entire Mississippi beach is closed to the public because of the algae. The freshwater from the Mississippi is killing marine life. While flooding could be bad, our marine areas desperately need a small surge of salt water. If we get a system to come this way, I hope it is fast-moving enough to limit flooding somewhat.

What would suck though is you guys getting most of the rain and it remaining really weak. You really do need "some" good wind to drive in that salt water and help break up that scurge you're dealing with.

[TheProfessor]

I hate to say it, but the Mississippi and Louisiana coastlines really need a weak hurricane to help clear out the toxic algae bloom that has developed. The entire Mississippi beach is closed to the public because of the algae. The freshwater from the Mississippi is killing marine life. While flooding could be bad, our marine areas desperately need a small surge of salt water. If we get a system to come this way, I hope it is fast-moving enough to limit flooding somewhat.

I'm not sure how much that would help in the long run. If the storm were to affect the Mississippi river valley with torrential rain causing more flooding along the river it would just dump the nutrient filled fresh water right back into the Gulf after the hurricane passed(especially if a scenario like the Euro occurred.). I'd rather not need to rely on a hurricane to help clear the algae bloom.

[johngaltfla]

I hate to say it, but the Mississippi and Louisiana coastlines really need a weak hurricane to help clear out the toxic algae bloom that has developed. The entire Mississippi beach is closed to the public because of the algae. The freshwater from the Mississippi is killing marine life. While flooding could be bad, our marine areas desperately need a small surge of salt water. If we get a system to come this way, I hope it is fast-moving enough to limit flooding somewhat.

I'm not sure how much that would help in the long run. If the storm were to affect the Mississippi river valley with torrential rain causing more flooding along the river it would just dump the nutrient filled fresh water right back into the Gulf after the hurricane passed(especially if a scenario like the Euro occurred.). I'd rather not need to rely on a hurricane to help clear the algae bloom.

Didn't help us with Red Tide, so I'm right there with you.

[MississippiWx]

I hate to say it, but the Mississippi and Louisiana coastlines really need a weak hurricane to help clear out the toxic algae bloom that has developed. The entire Mississippi beach is closed to the public because of the algae. The freshwater from the Mississippi is killing marine life. While flooding could be bad, our marine areas desperately need a small surge of salt water. If we get a system to come this way, I hope it is fast-moving enough to limit flooding somewhat.

What would suck though is you guys getting most of the rain and it remaining really weak. You really do need "some" good wind to drive in that salt water and help break up that scurge you're dealing with.

Indeed.

Crossing my fingers for the best of both worlds. Strong enough to help, but not too strong while also moving at a speed that is helpful. It’s a very sad situation over here in our marine areas.

[MississippiWx]

I hate to say it, but the Mississippi and Louisiana coastlines really need a weak hurricane to help clear out the toxic algae bloom that has developed. The entire Mississippi beach is closed to the public because of the algae. The freshwater from the Mississippi is killing marine life. While flooding could be bad, our marine areas desperately need a small surge of salt water. If we get a system to come this way, I hope it is fast-moving enough to limit flooding somewhat.

I'm not sure how much that would help in the long run. If the storm were to affect the Mississippi river valley with torrential rain causing more flooding along the river it would just dump the nutrient filled fresh water right back into the Gulf after the hurricane passed(especially if a scenario like the Euro occurred.). I'd rather not need to rely on a hurricane to help clear the algae bloom.

It would only help if it were relatively fast moving while not moving through the MS River Valley. I know that’s asking for a lot from nature, but she does have a way of balancing herself out.

[chaser1]

Up to early today I figured the EURO was out to lunch. I could care less about the ICON but the CMC and GFS better identifying a closed low over water was a bit more attention getting. Mostly though, the UK depiction is especially attention getting.

[MississippiWx]

I hate to say it, but the Mississippi and Louisiana coastlines really need a weak hurricane to help clear out the toxic algae bloom that has developed. The entire Mississippi beach is closed to the public because of the algae. The freshwater from the Mississippi is killing marine life. While flooding could be bad, our marine areas desperately need a small surge of salt water. If we get a system to come this way, I hope it is fast-moving enough to limit flooding somewhat.

I'm not sure how much that would help in the long run. If the storm were to affect the Mississippi river valley with torrential rain causing more flooding along the river it would just dump the nutrient filled fresh water right back into the Gulf after the hurricane passed(especially if a scenario like the Euro occurred.). I'd rather not need to rely on a hurricane to help clear the algae bloom.

Didn't help us with Red Tide, so I'm right there with you.

We have a blue-green algae that is caused by fresh water. Red algae is caused by massive upwelling on the ocean floor. Much different phenomena.

[ColdMiser123]

I would be surprised if this wasn't overdone, but verbatim the Euro has quite the windstorm extending well into inland Louisiana.

[gatorcane]

I recall last year the Euro tried on a few occasions to spin up something from a front descending into the GOM and ended up being wrong. It may be a weakness of the model, we should soon find out.

[psyclone]

Our newly issued marine forecasts from Ruskin show 20kt winds with gusts to 35kt on Thursday...a noteworthy bump from earlier and an indication that they're buying into some degree of development with time. As for the Euro...the legend of Debby (2012) shall not be forgotten. Maybe it will be correct this time but I'm suspicious. As always it's hurry up and wait..

[ColdMiser123]

There is a tremendous amount of spread in the 12z EPS, which highlights how uncertain the evolution of this is. There are now members that take this as far west as Houston.

[northjaxpro]

Our newly issued marine forecasts from Ruskin show 20kt winds with gusts to 35kt on Thursday...a noteworthy bump from earlier and an indication that they're buying into some degree of development with time. As for the Euro...the legend of Debby (2012) shall not be forgotten. Maybe it will be correct this time but I'm suspicious. As always it's hurry up and wait..

Yeah, Psyclone that is an excellent point. Debby 2012 is one for the history books in which the GFS performed extremely well in accurately taking Debby northeast into Florida, and we ended up with 16 inches of rainfall at my home station and significant flooding across North and Northeast Florida. EURO may be too strong with the ridge in this situation, as was the case in analyzing Debby in 2012. We will see how this will shake down for sure....

[Steve]

It’s record heat here with NW winds. It’s not super dry, but humidity is only around 50%. It’s 95-96 right now and should go up another 3-4 degrees by evening. 3 more days of this, and you know the coastal waters will heat up another 2+/- degrees.

Current Gulf coastal waters are running from the high 80s in SW and W FL to mid 80’s near Grand Isle
https://www.nodc.noaa.gov/dsdt/cwtg/egof.html

Link to map and plots
https://www.nodc.noaa.gov/dsdt/cwtg/egof_tmap.html

[chaser1]

Our newly issued marine forecasts from Ruskin show 20kt winds with gusts to 35kt on Thursday...a noteworthy bump from earlier and an indication that they're buying into some degree of development with time. As for the Euro...the legend of Debby (2012) shall not be forgotten. Maybe it will be correct this time but I'm suspicious. As always it's hurry up and wait..

That Marine forecast is pretty aggressive from this far out?! That certainly foretells just how far south they're thinking this low might get (as well as being deeper then your garden variety trough)

[ColdMiser123]

[MississippiWx]

Our newly issued marine forecasts from Ruskin show 20kt winds with gusts to 35kt on Thursday...a noteworthy bump from earlier and an indication that they're buying into some degree of development with time. As for the Euro...the legend of Debby (2012) shall not be forgotten. Maybe it will be correct this time but I'm suspicious. As always it's hurry up and wait..

Yeah, Psyclone that is an excellent point. Debby 2012 is one for the history books in which the GFS performed extremely well in accurately taking Debby northeast into Florida. EURO may be too strong with the ridge in this situation, as was the case in analyzing Debby in 2012. We will see how this will shake down for sure....

Debbie certainly should give all of us pause when trying to put much faith in the Euro. Definitely a very tricky setup with all options still on the table!