Watching GOM for tropical development (Is INVEST 92L)

[NDG]

from the 18z an interesting view... a reason for the lack of deepening when otherwise all conditions appear great. looks like there might be some northerly shear/dry air.

https://i.ibb.co/wrKrf7X/9-km-ECMWF-USA-Surface-3-Hourly-Southeast-US-Cloud-Layers.gif

Yes, both the Euro and GFS have trended to the UL high over northern FL to push westward towards LA ahead of the potential system and for some light northerly shear to take over the eastern GOM and over the developing system by Thursday. But I don't take UL winds forecast literally past 72 hrs, in fact the environment over the NE GOM has continued to remained favorable despite the earlier forecasts.

[artist]

I wonder when they will start sending balloons up so we get a better reading of the atmosphere.

[OuterBanker]

Hmmm, latest GFS and Euro agree.

Latest GFS legacy and GEM agree.

Stay tuned for as the storm turns.

[drezee]

Rule normally is if the 0z Euro and 0z GFS agree inside 120 hrs...you can pretty much bank it. Let's talk in 6.5 hours

[toad strangler]

Rule normally is if the 0z Euro and 0z GFS agree inside 120 hrs...you can pretty much bank it. Let's talk in 6.5 hours

What rule?

[NDG]

Rule normally is if the 0z Euro and 0z GFS agree inside 120 hrs...you can pretty much bank it. Let's talk in 6.5 hours

What rule?

That within 120 hrs is when both the GFS and Euro tend to agree on solutions/patterns.

[OuterBanker]

Btw, is the GFS legacy the same model that gave us the phantom hurricane that either hit the Carolina coast or the big bend of Fl in May?

If so I know which model I'm going to throw out.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/StuOstro/status/1148018381267918850

[Steve]

Nam @ 39 hours is about offshore near cape San Blas. Last run it had a north coast runner around the MS Coast and propagating west at 84.

[CrazyC83]

I'm definitely leaning towards the Euro personally, but I wonder if even it isn't far enough west. It's trending towards a deeper ridge to the east and north. That would kick it farther west.

[Stormcenter]

Well how does it end up there?

Nam @ 39 hours is about offshore near cape San Blas. Last run it had a north coast runner around the MS Coast and propagating west at 84.

[Steve]

Well how does it end of there?

Nam @ 39 hours is about offshore near cape San Blas. Last run it had a north coast runner around the MS Coast and propagating west at 84.

Hey man. It’s only out to 57 @ MS/AL border at the coast. NAM may it may not be driving the circulation far enough south. Obviously a depression can form over land but it’s hard to get anything much stronger to do so.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 70800&fh=0

[Stormcenter]

Thanks!

Well how does it end of there?

Nam @ 39 hours is about offshore near cape San Blas. Last run it had a north coast runner around the MS Coast and propagating west at 84.

Hey man. It’s only out to 57 @ MS/AL border at the coast. NAM may it may not be driving the circulation far enough south. Obviously a depression can form over land but it’s hard to get anything much stronger to do so.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 70800&fh=0

[rolltide]

Danny 1997 ?

[LeonardRay]

did it stall south of ms alabama border?

[rolltide]

Danny 1997 stalled in Mobile bay for about 8 hours. (and maintained hurricane status) It caused major flooding,

[chaser1]

Is it possible NHC tags this as an invest prior to exit over water just to get more eyes on it, in modeling terms?

Interesting thought! That would be a quirky fun thing to see though I doubt there'd be anything consolidated enough before Tuesday. I believe that we have seen one or two systems tagged as an invest prior to exiting the African coast. Would have to be a first occuring over the CONUS (I think?).

[USTropics]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1148030725565931520

[ColdMiser123]

Still weak on the new GFS so far, but everything is well west from previous runs.

[chaser1]

0Z GFS is finally sliding this disturbance westward to just off Pensacola at about 66 hr's. Not deepening it though. So far, keeps it around 1010/1011 mb.

Meanwhile, look at the other side of the ocean? Looks like GFS wants to quickly wind up a depression off Africa and around 7N?! I dont think THAT small circulation will have much of a lifespan though.