ATL: BARRY - Models
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- cycloneye
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ATL: BARRY - Models
Model runs here.
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
Now we can see the HWRF 92L nest that will be very interesting.
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- Pearl River
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
The first models on intensity. Always only a handfull are plotted but as the runs advance more models join.SHIP up to Tropical Storm in this first run.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
Pearl River wrote::uarrow: What time do you think they'll run the HWRF?
If not at 12z certainly at 18z or 00z.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
https://twitter.com/TylerJStanfield/status/1148222942796550154
https://twitter.com/TylerJStanfield/status/1148222951063506950
https://twitter.com/TylerJStanfield/status/1148222951063506950
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- StormLogic
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
EURO +144
GFS LEGACY +144
seems like gfs and euro picking this one up and its coast rider
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
StormLogic wrote:https://i.imgur.com/rnfKhQ5.png
EURO +144
https://i.imgur.com/wHgzKWz.png
GFS LEGACY +144
seems like gfs and euro picking this one up and its coast rider
A coast rider, yeah we've seen this story before. I really hope it ends up moving faster than Allison did if it stays riding the coast.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
NAM isn't much help at 12Z. Seems to be having some trouble with the circulation on the US and trying to split the difference between a couple of circulations. Eventually it sort of merges the farther east circulation down to the Gulf Coast around Panama City Beach and then moves the overall "envelope" west toward the end of the run. It doesn't much develop anything outside of a broad circulation or maybe depression.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0812&fh=84
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0812&fh=84
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- ColdMiser123
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
Steve wrote:NAM isn't much help at 12Z. Seems to be having some trouble with the circulation on the US and trying to split the difference between a couple of circulations. Eventually it sort of merges the farther east circulation down to the Gulf Coast around Panama City Beach and then moves the overall "envelope" west toward the end of the run. It doesn't much develop anything outside of a broad circulation or maybe depression.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0812&fh=84
Another interesting point is that the 3km NAM is actually a good bit south of the 12km NAM.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
14z HRRR (Rapid Update) which goes out 18 hours shows the broad center emerging into the Gulf in the overnight hours tonight.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0814&fh=18
GFS is about to start running (shows up to 06 hours right now). RGEM which I think is derived from the Canadian goes out to 48 hours. It's 12z solution is out, and it appears to show multiple low pressures near the coast, but a concentration of spin a bit south of there.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0812&fh=36
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0814&fh=18
GFS is about to start running (shows up to 06 hours right now). RGEM which I think is derived from the Canadian goes out to 48 hours. It's 12z solution is out, and it appears to show multiple low pressures near the coast, but a concentration of spin a bit south of there.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0812&fh=36
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- tarheelprogrammer
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
Looks like the ICON is further west and stronger than 06z:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
tarheelprogrammer wrote:Looks like the ICON is further west and stronger than 06z:
https://i.ibb.co/6BbvHxW/dsfsfsf.png
Here's it's rain depiction. I'm not sure I'm going to buy that narrow of a path.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
GFS out to 84 hours (3 1/2 days) only shows a weak circulation south of Louisiana. It's followed the ECMWF as far as track, but will it get on board regarding intensity?
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0812&fh=90
it is a bit faster than GFS Legacy (O-GFS?) and a bit SW of the GFS Legacy at 90 hours.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0812&fh=90
it is a bit faster than GFS Legacy (O-GFS?) and a bit SW of the GFS Legacy at 90 hours.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
12z GFS is truly hugging the coast and dumping lots of rain on ms and la
Last edited by LeonardRay on Mon Jul 08, 2019 11:00 am, edited 1 time in total.
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- TheAustinMan
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
The 12z UKMET has a storm of at least 974 mbar moving into southeastern Louisiana in the vicinity of Grand Isle tracking generally north inland.
_
NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 28.9N 87.7W
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 12.07.2019 84 28.8N 88.0W 1004 30
1200UTC 12.07.2019 96 29.0N 89.5W 999 44
0000UTC 13.07.2019 108 29.2N 90.2W 987 56
1200UTC 13.07.2019 120 30.5N 90.7W 974 62
0000UTC 14.07.2019 132 32.3N 90.3W 977 42
1200UTC 14.07.2019 144 33.9N 89.1W 985 36
NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 28.9N 87.7W
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 12.07.2019 84 28.8N 88.0W 1004 30
1200UTC 12.07.2019 96 29.0N 89.5W 999 44
0000UTC 13.07.2019 108 29.2N 90.2W 987 56
1200UTC 13.07.2019 120 30.5N 90.7W 974 62
0000UTC 14.07.2019 132 32.3N 90.3W 977 42
1200UTC 14.07.2019 144 33.9N 89.1W 985 36
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
Models coming in better agreement they keep shifting towards euro
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
GFS has a 1004mb system moving into bolivar at 114 hours
actually south of Galveston bay at 1003mb at 126 hours and continues west into texas
actually south of Galveston bay at 1003mb at 126 hours and continues west into texas
Last edited by LeonardRay on Mon Jul 08, 2019 11:08 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
Re UK Met:
974mb is pretty low for 62k winds (71+ mph). But I guess it could be a case where the pressure falls quickly there for a while without the opportunity for the winds to correspondingly follow. The UK Track takes it in near Grand Isle/Port Fourchon with a slightly west of due north heading and inland toward Livingston Parish (east of Baton Rouge) and then gradually brings it northward (east of due north) toward a position just west of Jackson, MS.
974mb is pretty low for 62k winds (71+ mph). But I guess it could be a case where the pressure falls quickly there for a while without the opportunity for the winds to correspondingly follow. The UK Track takes it in near Grand Isle/Port Fourchon with a slightly west of due north heading and inland toward Livingston Parish (east of Baton Rouge) and then gradually brings it northward (east of due north) toward a position just west of Jackson, MS.
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