LeonardRay wrote:GFS has a 1004mb system moving into bolivar at 114 hours
Actually takes a SW jog after that frame, makes landfall near Freeport, TX
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LeonardRay wrote:GFS has a 1004mb system moving into bolivar at 114 hours
Steve wrote:Re UK Met:
974mb is pretty low for 62k winds (71+ mph). But I guess it could be a case where the pressure falls quickly there for a while without the opportunity for the winds to correspondingly follow. The UK Track takes it in near Grand Isle/Port Fourchon with a slightly west of due north heading and inland toward Livingston Parish (east of Baton Rouge) and then gradually brings it northward (east of due north) toward a position just west of Jackson, MS.
mcheer23 wrote:LeonardRay wrote:GFS has a 1004mb system moving into bolivar at 114 hours
Actually takes a SW jog after that frame, makes landfall near Freeport, TX
Steve wrote:Re UK Met:
974mb is pretty low for 62k winds (71+ mph). But I guess it could be a case where the pressure falls quickly there for a while without the opportunity for the winds to correspondingly follow. The UK Track takes it in near Grand Isle/Port Fourchon with a slightly west of due north heading and inland toward Livingston Parish (east of Baton Rouge) and then gradually brings it northward (east of due north) toward a position just west of Jackson, MS.
Steve wrote:Re UK Met:
974mb is pretty low for 62k winds (71+ mph). But I guess it could be a case where the pressure falls quickly there for a while without the opportunity for the winds to correspondingly follow. The UK Track takes it in near Grand Isle/Port Fourchon with a slightly west of due north heading and inland toward Livingston Parish (east of Baton Rouge) and then gradually brings it northward (east of due north) toward a position just west of Jackson, MS.
Steve wrote:Agreed.
JMA is slightly more defined and farther SW in the Gulf at 72 hours which is as far as I can get it.
Canadian seemed to be the last outlier and just dropped it in the Gulf, moved it west a bit and kicked it back up intensified into the Panhandle. It's only out to 36 hours, but in the next few minutes, we'll have to see if it too has figured out a different solution or if it's going to stick to its proverbial guns.
ColdMiser123 wrote:Steve wrote:Agreed.
JMA is slightly more defined and farther SW in the Gulf at 72 hours which is as far as I can get it.
Canadian seemed to be the last outlier and just dropped it in the Gulf, moved it west a bit and kicked it back up intensified into the Panhandle. It's only out to 36 hours, but in the next few minutes, we'll have to see if it too has figured out a different solution or if it's going to stick to its proverbial guns.
Going to make landfall in southern Louisiana this run.
MississippiWx wrote:CMC into Grand Isle at 114 hours. 997mb, intensifying rather quickly and strongest run yet.
NDG wrote:Through 48 hrs the Euro is fairly close to last night's run.
CrazyC83 wrote:NDG wrote:Through 48 hrs the Euro is fairly close to last night's run.
A touch farther south and west. The farther southwest it goes, I think the stronger it could get as it gets deeper warm water and loses some continental dry air.
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