ATL: BARRY - Models

[TheProfessor]

The 0z GEFS seemed to shift east as well, but also introduced more spread compared to the 18z run. It will be interesting to see if an east trend develops over the next few cycles, or if they shift back west at 12z.

[Monsoonjr99]

NOAA is probably waiting until this system is over water before starting HWRF runs, which does make the invest designation just a bit odd.

[Dylan]

 https://twitter.com/dylanfedericowx/status/1148487101413040128

[LeonardRay]

So with the GFS 0z at 48 hours the northern low appears to die in se LA, then at 54 hours the southern low begins to tighten in the gulf and eventually makes its way to Galveston...... not sure how this is gonna eventually play out

[Dylan]

 https://twitter.com/dylanfedericowx/status/1148483870838448128

[northjaxpro]

EURO may indeed be picking up downstream the strength of the Great Lakes trough. It may be strong enough to break down the Rockies ridge's Eastern axis beginning Thursday evening and pick up potential Barry and move it north into the Lower MS River Valley. Anywhere across the North/Central Gulf Coast still very much potentially in the landfall strike zone! Stay vigilant!! I have a bad feeling the East shifts may continue......
....

[Dylan]

 https://twitter.com/dylanfedericowx/status/1148497793104982016

[northjaxpro]

GFS may have been right all along with a sloppy cyclone being never fully consolidated and vertically stacked, and remaining weaker and closer to the coast.

We will know more in the details a bit later, but it is possible we may be seeing the EURO headed back toward what the GFS initially analyzed a couple of days ago. Interesting indeed...

[Dylan]

GFS may have been right all along with a sloppy cyclone being never fully consolidated and vertically stacked, and remaining weaker and closer to the coast.
H
We will know more in the details, but it is possible we may be seeing the EURO headed back toward what the GFS initially analyzed a couple of days ago. Interesting indeed...

To be fair, EURO suggests a strengthening Category 1 hurricane, with 80-90MPH wind gusts for portions of SE LA, a place that hasn’t been hit hard since Isaac in 2012, the vegetation is prime for lots of downed trees & branches. Having been through Cindy in 2005, and Isaac in 2012, a strengthening CAT 1 is nothing to sneeze at. The trajectory would cause massive storm surge and coastal flooding along coastal Louisiana (Outside of Levee System) & MS Gulf Coast. Infrastructure in NOLA is terrible, with the pumps not being able to handle a summer thunderstorm, and 50MPH wind gusts FRI PM-SUN AM would cause tons of power outages. Would be a total mess.

[northjaxpro]

Oh no I am not taking away the EURO option of a potential Cat 1-2 hurricane impacting NW Gulf. EURO could be right in insisting a stronger Rockies ridge will be the situation to allow Barry to get formidable. I am just re-inforcing that GFS option still very much on the table.

Any tropicall cyclone moderate, to strong tropical storm even, can cause great impacts and effects all along the Gulf Coast I know! I personally have been impacted by these cyclones my entire adult life. I NEVER EVER take these systems lightly. I have been doing this too long to take this fact for granted in any manner.

[Dylan]

:uarrow: Oh no I am not taking away the EURO option of a potential Cat 1-2 hurricane impacting NW Gulf. EURO could be right in insisting a stronger Rockies ridge will be the situation to allow Barry to get formidable. I am just re-inforcing that GFS option still very much on the table.

Any tropicall cyclone moderate, to strong tropical storm even, can cause great impacts and effects all along the Gulf Coast I know! I personally have been impacted by these cyclones my entire adult life. I NEVER EVER take these systems lightly. I have been doing this too long to take this fact for granted in any manner.

I wonder when the NHC is going to pull the trigger and declare this PTC 2? European has tropical storm force winds reaching the coastal parishes of SE LA on Friday morning, just 3 days out.

[northjaxpro]

Let us see what happens the next 24 hours Dylan. We definitely should have a better idea the next couple of runs if the East shift with the models will continue. If so, NHC may initiate PTC advisories as early as late tonight or early Wednesday. We shall see..

[MississippiWx]

6z ICON again stronger at 974mb now into Central Louisiana.

[MississippiWx]

6z GFS is back to not even developing the system.

[N2FSU]

0z Euro shifted East about 100nm

[SFLcane]

6z GFS is back to not even developing the system.

Large disagreement between both big models euro and gfs it’s hard to completely discard the gfs at this point it might be on to something. For now a good call in my opinion is for something weak mainly a rain event along the gulf coast. Time will tell

[caneman]

A lot of people wanting to simply discard the GFS out of hand. I do know this it did well with Debby (right off our coast. We were hammered with rain in Tampa Bay) and seems to do well with these type storms, this time of year and this area. We will see.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Even the GFS ensembles backed off on development at 06z. Still plenty of time for things to change, but this may be a coup for the GFS. We shall see.

GFS Ensembles:

[Frank P]

A lot of people wanting to simply discard the GFS out of hand. I do know this it did well with Debby (right off our cost. We were hammered with rain in Tampa Bay) and seems to do well with these type storms, this time of year and this area. We will see.

Legacy GFS shifted east to SELA/MS coast into AL. ATT my opinion is that the old GFS has a better handle on this system than the new GFS taking this to TX. Time will tell, several models over night also shifted east from prior runs. Trend or not? All TBD of course!

[NDG]

Another look at the 06z GFS ensembles, majority show a LA landfall.