ATL: BARRY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[BobHarlem]

Have any forecast data to back that up?

It looks like the shear might kick up before any landfall. It'll probably be just a semi-decent rain maker. If you are thinking more wind, you'd do better to press high on the ceiling fan remote.

Check the consensus models (TVCN) that I think the GFS and Euro are both right to a degree. I just don't think it'll be on the upswing at landfall if it forms. (20-25knots of shear as it nears land) It's way too sloppy to make any real calls, but if does go to LA it'll probably get sheared up as it does.

It looks like the GFS/Euro "model wars" are on full activation today.

[jconsor]

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1148592893159968768

[gatorcane]

You never know with a system in the Gulf but at least both reliable global models are not unanimous on something significant. Seems yet again the consensus of the GFS and ECMWF may be what ultimately wins out (rather than one model beating the other model). That said heavy rainfall looks like the main threat at the moment regardless of development.

[TheStormExpert]

Former S2K member Alyono says expect little if any development until Thursday.

 https://twitter.com/derekortt/status/1148562655562608641

[TheStormExpert]

You never know with a system in the Gulf but at least both reliable global models are not showing anything strong. Seems yet again the consensus of the GFS and ECMWF may be what ultimately wins out. That said heavy rainfall looks like the main threat at the moment regardless of development.

Yep, after all it’s only July and this is typically a quiet month in the Atlantic.

[Steve]

Have any forecast data to back that up?

It looks like the shear might kick up before any landfall. It'll probably be just a semi-decent rain maker. If you are thinking more wind, you'd do better to press high on the ceiling fan remote.

If just don't think it'll be on the upswing at landfall if it forms. (20-25knots of shear as it nears land) It's way too sloppy to make any real calls, but if does go to LA it'll probably get sheared up as it does.

Joe B thinks maybe the opposite with some late rapid intensification partially due to some anomalous warm water off the SC LA Coast. They didn't show the stuff they usually show, but he did change the track he drew a bit into around Vermilion Parish where yesterday he said Cat 1/Golden Triangle.

For now, it's hot today already again but a bit breezy so far.

[StruThiO]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1148598902028931072

[Steve]

Former S2K member Alyono

Was Derek also Alyono? I thought they were different mets?

[smw1981]

I don't think Derek and Alyono are the same person, but Derek Ortt used to be a member of Storm2k a long time ago..

[Steve]

I don't think Derek and Alyono are the same person, but Derek Ortt used to be a member of Storm2k a long time ago..

Yeah, I always liked him. I thought he got a doctorate or something and took a job where he had to back off. Alyono was, I think, a different meteorologist. I hadn't seen him this year, but he was around last year and much more recently than Derek.

[ColdMiser123]

The Euro did a much better job representing the current satellite depiction relative to the GFS so far. The GFS is so far off that it looks like it is forecasting for another day entirely in the NE Gulf.

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1148593202980687872

[Aric Dunn]

The mesoscale models have been quite helpful the last 24hours.

[tarheelprogrammer]

That spin in the NE GOM is becoming more and more apparent. That appears to be where the ICON model is initializing at.

[NDG]

Updated latest hr satellite loop, a broad circulation/vorticity is definitely taking place, now the questions is where will consolidation take place, regardless it will be a slow process over the next couple of days.

[longhorn2004]

Why is this Low that passed me once in Texas is looping back around and going west ? What is pushing this Low west? Against the normal west to east winds.

[sphelps8681]

I was wondering if the high pressure that sits over most of Texas starts heading to the west will this not tug the disturbance back west again? Or is this something that will even happen?

[Nederlander]

I was wondering if the high pressure that sits over most of Texas starts heading to the west will this not tug the disturbance back west again? Or is this something that will even happen?

The eastward trend on the models are picking up a stronger trough in the upper plains that will erode the eastern edge of the ridge. If the ridge were to move west, that would open up an even larger escape route for the system to the north

[psyclone]

I've got a front row seat by the bubbling cauldron and the showers streaming onshore are very heavy. Nice respite from the heat so it is quite enjoyable and the frogs and other amphibians most definitely approve.

[Nederlander]

Why is this Low that passed me once in Texas is looping back around and going west ? What is pushing this Low west? Against the normal west to east winds.

Ridging along the ATL seaboard

[SoupBone]

I was wondering if the high pressure that sits over most of Texas starts heading to the west will this not tug the disturbance back west again? Or is this something that will even happen?

The eastward trend on the models are picking up a stronger trough in the upper plains that will erode the eastern edge of the ridge. If the ridge were to move west, that would open up an even larger escape route for the system to the north

This is going to be a huge player when you're talking about the ultimate landfall.