ATL: BARRY - Models

[Steve]

12z ICON still strengthens 92L quickly off the Louisiana coast. Down to 976mb at 90 hours and still strengthening. It's about 50 miles to the east of the 6z run so far.

That's a creepy run. If I was anywhere near Houma, Morgan City, New Iberia or Lafayette, I'd be double checking on stuff. Luckily we're only talking about the ICON and NAM at the moment.

[ColdMiser123]

GFS looks a lot closer to 0z this run with more consolidated 850 hPa vorticity further south already through 30 hours.

[LeonardRay]

12z GFS is not showing any vorticity making it into the GOM until tomorrow at 06z. Ummmmmmmmm, am I see things incorrectly

Seems all the models are initializing wrong at this point, which if thats the case its like garbage in and garbage out.

[ColdMiser123]

Already down to 1004 mb at 48 hours on the 12z GFS. Well to the south of Louisiana with TCG.

[NDG]

Through 54 hrs, 12z GFS is even stronger than 0z run.

[NDG]

Through 60 hrs is almost identical to the 0z Euro run, a tad stronger and just a little further north & west.

[Siker]

Through 54 hrs, 12z GFS is even stronger than 0z run.

Yes, 1000mb at 60hrs is the strongest we've seen from the GFS so far.

[Steve]

994mb at 72 hours (valid Friday 7am)

[NDG]

[GeneratorPower]

Through 78 hours, GFS is showing a Cat 1 hurricane paralleling the northern Gulf Coast.

[LeonardRay]

hugging the la coast at 996mb with wnw heading

[p1nheadlarry]

12z GFS is not showing any vorticity making it into the GOM until tomorrow at 06z. Ummmmmmmmm, am I see things incorrectly

I get confused by this when I see it. What do you mean? Vorticity is calculated; if there's shear there's vorticity, even if it's not a large quantity. And looking at 850 hPa there is shaded cyclonic vorticity.

[p1nheadlarry]

Through 78 hours, GFS is showing a Cat 1 hurricane paralleling the northern Gulf Coast.

996 hPa at that size could be TS

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Terrible consistency from the GFS.

[gatorcane]

Did they ingest new data into the GFS? How does it suddenly go from no development to a strong TS in a single run? And we are talking short-term here.

[tarheelprogrammer]

12z GFS is not showing any vorticity making it into the GOM until tomorrow at 06z. Ummmmmmmmm, am I see things incorrectly

I get confused by this when I see it. What do you mean? Vorticity is calculated; if there's shear there's vorticity, even if it's not a large quantity. And looking at 850 hPa there is shaded cyclonic vorticity.

The spin in the system, if you look at https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0912&fh=12 you will see a little bit of spin still on the coast of Florida at 0z Wednesday. That just seems a little off to me when considering that the vort chart here is showing most of the energy already off the coast:

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... wg8vor.GIF

[NDG]

The GFS shows it running parallel to the LA coast, but starts doing that crap again as last night of weakening it and then restrengthening it.

[BobHarlem]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1148621013632131073

[GeneratorPower]

Did they ingest new data into the GFS? How does it suddenly go from no development to a strong TS in a single run? And we are talking short-term here.

Prior runs had the storm in about the same spot. Key takeaway is that GFS seems to lose the storm on certain runs. I suspect genesis is borderline in this model. Lots can go wrong, so small run-to-run changes have a big impact. Sounds like the model is mirroring reality -- lots can go wrong, but it might go "right".

[StormLogic]

With recent model flopping and my own analysis due to the high ridge moving out in the next few days I am still leaning towards a more westerly landfall than whats being shown by the models. Once it sets up in the GOM and deep strengthening occurs, it will undergo RI before landfall and meander between Mcfaddin Beach to Pecan Island as a Cat 1-2