ATL: BARRY - Models

[jaguars_22]

The RGEM is showing the low consolidating further south which would not be good for middle texas where I am at.

[ColdMiser123]

CMC has much better vertical alignment than previous runs. Further south, stronger through 54 hours compared to 0z.

[wxman57]

NAVGEM is my model of choice. However, you need to add 180 deg to its predicted track. Currently, NAVGEM says South Carolina...

[wxman57]

Yikes on the UKMET:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 28.2N 87.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 11.07.2019 48 28.1N 88.8W 1005 32
0000UTC 12.07.2019 60 27.8N 90.0W 995 43
1200UTC 12.07.2019 72 28.3N 91.6W 982 68
0000UTC 13.07.2019 84 28.6N 92.6W 966 75
1200UTC 13.07.2019 96 29.8N 93.6W 946 82
0000UTC 14.07.2019 108 31.5N 94.2W 975 40
1200UTC 14.07.2019 120 33.2N 94.5W 980 39
0000UTC 15.07.2019 132 34.8N 95.2W 988 28
1200UTC 15.07.2019 144 36.2N 95.7W 994 28

The UKMET keeps the center offshore an extra 24 hours over other models with that 7am Sunday landfall near Sabine Pass. I'm not buying that solution. Thinking landfall near western Vermilion Bay before noon Saturday as a 50kt TS (+/- 15 kts)

[SoupBone]

Isn't the UKMET notorious for bombing out systems? One of them does it frequently if I remember correctly.

[Steve]

CMC has much better vertical alignment than previous runs. Further south, stronger through 54 hours compared to 0z.

It's finally joining the consensus. 992mb at 84 hours (how far TT shows it).

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0912&fh=84

Looks south of St. Mary/Iberia Parishes. That's where Andrew hit in 1992.

[ColdMiser123]

Yikes on the UKMET:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 28.2N 87.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 11.07.2019 48 28.1N 88.8W 1005 32
0000UTC 12.07.2019 60 27.8N 90.0W 995 43
1200UTC 12.07.2019 72 28.3N 91.6W 982 68
0000UTC 13.07.2019 84 28.6N 92.6W 966 75
1200UTC 13.07.2019 96 29.8N 93.6W 946 82
0000UTC 14.07.2019 108 31.5N 94.2W 975 40
1200UTC 14.07.2019 120 33.2N 94.5W 980 39
0000UTC 15.07.2019 132 34.8N 95.2W 988 28
1200UTC 15.07.2019 144 36.2N 95.7W 994 28

The UKMET keeps the center offshore an extra 24 hours over other models with that 7am Sunday landfall near Sabine Pass. I'm not buying that solution.

The 96 hour coordinate of 29.8N, 93.6W puts the disturbance right on the coast just east of the TX/LA border at 7 am CDT Saturday July 13th. Pretty consistent with other guidance so far.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Anyone know why the HWRF hasn't been run yet on 92L?

[Steve]

Canadian landfall about 1am Saturday @ 993mb near Abbeville & Pecan Island. That's roughly where Lili hit back in 2002.

[wxman57]

Yikes on the UKMET:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 28.2N 87.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 11.07.2019 48 28.1N 88.8W 1005 32
0000UTC 12.07.2019 60 27.8N 90.0W 995 43
1200UTC 12.07.2019 72 28.3N 91.6W 982 68
0000UTC 13.07.2019 84 28.6N 92.6W 966 75
1200UTC 13.07.2019 96 29.8N 93.6W 946 82
0000UTC 14.07.2019 108 31.5N 94.2W 975 40
1200UTC 14.07.2019 120 33.2N 94.5W 980 39
0000UTC 15.07.2019 132 34.8N 95.2W 988 28
1200UTC 15.07.2019 144 36.2N 95.7W 994 28

The UKMET keeps the center offshore an extra 24 hours over other models with that 7am Sunday landfall near Sabine Pass. I'm not buying that solution.

The 96 hour coordinate of 29.8N, 93.6W puts the disturbance right on the coast just east of the TX/LA border at 7 am CDT Saturday July 13th. Pretty consistent with other guidance so far.

You are correct. Had an error in my plotting program. Had it set for 24hr points vs. 12hr. Still, I think the UK is too far west and too strong.

[Siker]

Finally found my old UKMET plotter, need to make the land look less awful but here is a map:

[ColdMiser123]

The UKMET keeps the center offshore an extra 24 hours over other models with that 7am Sunday landfall near Sabine Pass. I'm not buying that solution.

The 96 hour coordinate of 29.8N, 93.6W puts the disturbance right on the coast just east of the TX/LA border at 7 am CDT Saturday July 13th. Pretty consistent with other guidance so far.

You are correct. Had an error in my plotting program. Had it set for 24hr points vs. 12hr. Still, I think the UK is too far west and too strong.

I was pretty taken aback by how strong it is forecasting 92L to get at this point. Definitely need to see more run to run consistency before buying into those kinds of strong solutions.

[stormlover2013]

Ukmet and cmc are farther west till we have a center will keep bouncing I mean upper tx/la seems like a good i mean euro, ukmet, gfs all pretty close could bounce 80-100 miles east or west just never know

[ColdMiser123]

Anyone know why the HWRF hasn't been run yet on 92L?

Not a definite answer, but I'm wondering if it has something to do with initializing the circulation over land. I'll ask my research advisors who specialize in data assimilation and model parameterizations if that's the case at some point in the next few days.

[sphelps8681]

Finally found my old UKMET plotter, need to make the land look less awful but here is a map:

https://i.imgur.com/VLO7jvF.png

What category is that making landfall?

[Steve]

Finally found my old UKMET plotter, need to make the land look less awful but here is a map:

https://i.imgur.com/VLO7jvF.png

What category is that making landfall?

I don't have the wind outputs, but usually around sub-950mb is around a 3. However, you can have 3's with much higher and much lower barometric pressures depending on circumstance.

[hohnywx]

Finally found my old UKMET plotter, need to make the land look less awful but here is a map:

https://i.imgur.com/VLO7jvF.png

What category is that making landfall?

The forecast shows a max sustained wind speed of 82 kts (95 MPH). So, borderline Cat 1/2.

[HeeBGBz]

Hi everyone. Back at it again. Has the noon Euro started yet?

[ColdMiser123]

Hi everyone. Back at it again. Has the noon Euro started yet?

Euro will start running at ~1:45. Frames for this system will likely be from ~2:00 to ~2:20.

[SoupBone]

The ever-infamous (which means more than famous) GFS Legacy takes it into Mobile, or at least that's what it looks like. Can't zoom in enough.