ATL: BARRY - Models

[Siker]

Finally found my old UKMET plotter, need to make the land look less awful but here is a map:

https://i.imgur.com/VLO7jvF.png

What category is that making landfall?

The forecast shows a max sustained wind speed of 82 kts (95 MPH). So, borderline Cat 1/2.

Disregard wind output from the UKMET text for anything <990mb. It is always too low. It’s definitely a Cat 3 in this run.

[Tireman4]

NAVGEM is my model of choice. However, you need to add 180 deg to its predicted track. Currently, NAVGEM says South Carolina...

No no no young man, LBAR rocks in my world.

[mcheer23]

EURO time.

[ColdMiser123]

1003 mb, drifting SW at hour 54.

The trough to the Northeast is more amplified than 0z.

[NDG]

Compared to last night's Euro run through at Thursday morning, 92L is stronger and a little farther S&W in position for the same forecast time. Further north & stronger than yesterday's 12z forecast.

[ColdMiser123]

Competing mid-level steering from the ridge to the west and the trough to the Northeast is leading to very slow motion at hours 54-66.

999 mb at 66.

[NDG]

Much stronger at 72 hrs compared to the last two runs, a turn more to the NW between 48-72 hrs, a little further north than last night's forecasted position for Friday morning.

[Dylan]

12z EURO with a landfall near Morgan City, LA son Saturday AM. Likely CAT 1.

[NDG]

At 72 hrs forecasted position there is very good agreement between the GFS, Euro, ICON and CMC, within 50 miles of each other and about the same strength.

[ColdMiser123]

984 at landfall in central Louisiana between 12z and 18z on Saturday.

[cycloneye]

Still no HWRF and SHIP more bullish.

[Frank P]

984 at landfall in central Louisiana between 12z and 18z on Saturday.

Looks like all the associated weather will be in SELA per the latest Euro. Steve better stock up on some cold ones!

[NDG]

Landfall Terrebone Parish around or shortly before noon Saturday as a strengthening Hurricane, per the latest 12z Euro run.

[sphelps8681]

Is it that accurate when there is no COC or stacked system yet? Question is truly from a novice.

[CrazyC83]

Is it that accurate when there is no COC or stacked system yet? Question is truly from a novice.

Accuracy is definitely lower. If the COC develops in a different location, it can throw everything off.

[MississippiWx]

The 12z Euro track is the worst case scenario for Mississippi River flooding in Louisiana and Mississippi. It takes three days for the storm to move into Arkansas.

[Steve]

984 at landfall in central Louisiana between 12z and 18z on Saturday.

Looks like all the associated weather will be in SELA per the latest Euro. Steve better stock up on some cold ones!

Loaded down with Jim Beam. Funny thing is I’m supposed to stand in my nephew’s wedding Saturday night. Lol. It’s in Harvey, and they close the MS River bridges at about 45mph. Might need to hit up my cousin and see if they have any alternative plans. I doubt they even suspect anything at this point. Euro has my attention.

[Tireman4]

Long way to go. Lots of flip flops in our future. Lets get this entity over water, then we can have a better handle on items....enjoy the ride.

[South Texas Storms]

With the Great Lakes trough trending stronger, chances for a TX landfall have decreased today. I'm feeling better here in Houston, as Louisiana looks like the likely landfall spot.

[TexWx]

With the Great Lakes trough trending stronger, chances for a TX landfall have decreased today. I'm feeling better here in Houston, as Louisiana looks like the likely landfall spot.

Completely agree.