ATL: BARRY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[MississippiWx]

Pretty convincing low level turning is establishing itself just barely onshore near Tallahassee. Visible loops that are longer show it slowly consolidating and gaining some momentum. Should be a due southwest motion from here for the next day or two.

One other point I meant to make is that buoys are showing water temps approaching 90 degrees in the North-Central Gulf. If this thing gets vertically aligned, the fast strengthening the models are showing is very possible.

[psyclone]

there remains a rather broad but very discernable rotation in the convection over west central florida. I know this is well removed from the center of our invest but it's very interesting nonetheless. It's been slowly sinking south today and is now just south of Tampa Bay around Sarasota with the heaviest rain moving onshore south of the swirl where the motion is onshore. Up where I am rain is now lighter and moving offshore. this morning it was heavy with an onshore component.

[TexasF6]

there remains a rather broad but very discernable rotation in the convection over west central florida. I know this is well removed from the center of our invest but it's very interesting nonetheless. It's been slowly sinking south today and is now just south of Tampa Bay around Sarasota with the heaviest rain moving onshore south of the swirl where the motion is onshore. Up where I am rain is now lighter and moving offshore. this morning it was heavy with an onshore component.

I see a nice circulation going under the towers....wow....another thing to watch!!!

[PTrackerLA]

I'm going to go ahead and hit the store this evening before the inevitable rush begins tomorrow. The mean track of all the latest models would bring Barry very close to Lafayette/south central LA. I had a bad feeling about this season, but can't believe it's only July 9th. Approaching 7 years since our last major threat...

[psyclone]

there remains a rather broad but very discernable rotation in the convection over west central florida. I know this is well removed from the center of our invest but it's very interesting nonetheless. It's been slowly sinking south today and is now just south of Tampa Bay around Sarasota with the heaviest rain moving onshore south of the swirl where the motion is onshore. Up where I am rain is now lighter and moving offshore. this morning it was heavy with an onshore component.

I see a nice circulation going under the towers....wow....another thing to watch!!!

It's got to be at least midlevel as i can't find evidence of a surface circ but it sure is interesting and far more tenacious than i would have expected. If anything it just indicates that our watched pot is indeed boiling. Speaking from a purely local perspective...it has yielded the coolest mid day temps around here in weeks so I'm really enjoying the respite.

[Nimbus]

there remains a rather broad but very discernable rotation in the convection over west central florida. I know this is well removed from the center of our invest but it's very interesting nonetheless. It's been slowly sinking south today and is now just south of Tampa Bay around Sarasota with the heaviest rain moving onshore south of the swirl where the motion is onshore. Up where I am rain is now lighter and moving offshore. this morning it was heavy with an onshore component.

I see a nice circulation going under the towers....wow....another thing to watch!!!

Tampa radar echoes make it look like the only player but new convection is building down into the gulf over Santa Rosa island as well. Should be interesting.

[MidnightRain]

I'm going to go ahead and hit the store this evening before the inevitable rush begins tomorrow. The mean track of all the latest models would bring Barry very close to Lafayette/south central LA. I had a bad feeling about this season, but can't believe it's only July 9th. Approaching 7 years since our last major threat...

Definitely do so. With Michael fresh on everyone's mind, there will be an unusual "rush" for a storm like this.

[Shell Mound]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1148644720500977669



 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1148645986107088897



 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1148651686245871617



 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1148657092460347394

[Aric Dunn]

Another thing to remember. In cases where there is not a large latitude system to produce shear what will happen is convection induced anticyclone migrating/relocation over the system. This happens a lot in cases like this so dont think it cant be a major hurricane.

[CaneCurious]

Does anyone think that the NHC will designate this as a PTC this evening so watches/warnings can go up? This is a very short window.

[floridasun78]

will spin off tampa affect low south of Panama you see spin that area other here notice too on radar you see storm going round that spin

[Aric Dunn]

there remains a rather broad but very discernable rotation in the convection over west central florida. I know this is well removed from the center of our invest but it's very interesting nonetheless. It's been slowly sinking south today and is now just south of Tampa Bay around Sarasota with the heaviest rain moving onshore south of the swirl where the motion is onshore. Up where I am rain is now lighter and moving offshore. this morning it was heavy with an onshore component.

I see a nice circulation going under the towers....wow....another thing to watch!!!

It's got to be at least midlevel as i can't find evidence of a surface circ but it sure is interesting and far more tenacious than i would have expected. If anything it just indicates that our watched pot is indeed boiling. Speaking from a purely local perspective...it has yielded the coolest mid day temps around here in weeks so I'm really enjoying the respite.

again as soon as the sun begins to set and the land cools there wont be anymore MESO fighting and the convergence will return to the gulf and the greatest low level 850mb vorticity which is anywhere from Appalachia bay south to tampa area.

[stormlover2013]

Yeah some descent spin down there towards Tampa but who knows

[NDG]

So here is what is going on right now, we have weak surface low circulation approximately where the X is just west of Tallahassee with mid level circulation where the O is well to the SW of it over the gulf, not much intensification is forecasted to happen over the next 24 hours or until the surface circulation catches up to the mid level circulation tomorrow night into Thursday morning. Once this happens the system will be stacked thus intensification will start going as it gets closer to the LA coast. But it is still forecasted to feel some northerly shear so most of the convection will be to the south of the center until it starts building its own anticyclone by Friday & Saturday.

[Aric Dunn]

So here is what is going on right now, we have weak surface low circulation approximately where the X is just west of Tallahassee with mid level circulation where the O is well to the SW of it over the gulf, not much intensification is forecasted to happen over the next 24 hours or until the surface circulation catches up to the mid level circulation tomorrow night into Thursday morning. Once this happens the system will be stacked thus intensification will start going as it gets closer to the LA coast. But it is still forecasted to feel some northerly shear so most of the convection will be to the south of the center until it starts building its own anticyclone by Friday & Saturday.

https://i.imgur.com/3iIZmZy.gif

watch and wait for the convention to develop of the west coast of florida and big bend over the next 6 hours. there are multiple mid level swirls out there from the various bursts earlier. the circ over land was induced by daytime heating and temporary pressure drops. that will die and some outflow boundaries will shoot south from the current convection. Once the convection begins to develop we will see a center start to consolidate somewhere Appalachia bay or just SW of there.

[NDG]

So here is what is going on right now, we have weak surface low circulation approximately where the X is just west of Tallahassee with mid level circulation where the O is well to the SW of it over the gulf, not much intensification is forecasted to happen over the next 24 hours or until the surface circulation catches up to the mid level circulation tomorrow night into Thursday morning. Once this happens the system will be stacked thus intensification will start going as it gets closer to the LA coast. But it is still forecasted to feel some northerly shear so most of the convection will be to the south of the center until it starts building its own anticyclone by Friday & Saturday.

https://i.imgur.com/3iIZmZy.gif

watch and wait for the convention to develop of the west coast of florida and big bend over the next 6 hours. there are multiple mid level swirls out there from the various bursts earlier. the circ over land was induced by daytime heating and temporary pressure drops. that will die and some outflow boundaries will shoot south from the current convection. Once the convection begins to develop we will see a center start to consolidate somewhere Appalachia bay or just SW of there.

What I can see happening and both the GFS and Euro show is for multiple vorticities circulating around for the next 24-36 hours or so until surface circulation reforms closer to the mid level circulation as convections starts shifting to the south do to the light northerly shear that will start affecting the system over the next 48 hrs or so.

[wxman57]

Surface obs with satellite confirm that the weak low is over the central FL Panhandle:

[p1nheadlarry]

Surface obs with satellite confirm that the weak low is over the central FL Panhandle:
http://wxman57.com/images/92Lb.JPG

Don't tell that to a NWS employee, they'll say it's in the western Big Bend

[Hurricaneman]

Looks to me the LLC is just about to move offshore if it’s not offshore and looks to be lining up with the MLC

[p1nheadlarry]

It might not take that much time to become organized if the midlevel vort max concentrates the convection. The surface low will want to go where the largest height falls/warmest column is and the midlevel vort can enhance it quicker with a reduced vertical theta gradient.