ATL: BARRY - Models

[South Texas Storms]

There are still several 12z Euro Ensemble members that track towards TX. So while it looks like the threat towards TX has decreased a bit since yesterday, we certainly aren't out of the woods. TX residents still need to be paying close attention to future Barry.

[Steve]

Lol man people jump the gun on models, yesterday had tx and now today la. We don’t have a center yet I think we will know for tomorrow morning what could happen. I wouldn’t be surprised one bit it’s more east or more west tonight or in the morning.

While certainly true, we didn't even have anything south of 35N, and many of the models as well as the NHC picked up on the weakness that will be found in the NE Gulf this evening. Once you get inside 96 hours, most of the time the models come into pretty decent agreement. That's not always the case, and I've seen one storm in the last few years where almost all tracks were on top of each other and it didn't verify. But that's the exception to the rule in the late 20-teens. I wouldn't completely write off the mid-TX coast and even less so the SETX coast at this point. But we're probably in a situation where the models will simply refine their solutions. So while I'd say everyone from WFL to the mid-TX Coast should be on guard, you have to think the yellow zone is somewhere between the MS/AL border and maybe Galveston with the redzone probably between the Mouth of the River and Vermilion Bay.

In any event, we won't have long to find out. So this isn't one of those 2 week NC vs. FL vs. Texas model wars on the horizon.

Is the inside of 96 hours with COC or does it matter?

It's hard to say and will more depend on the specifics regarding Barry's eventual strength and structure. The Gulf Coast is already seeing some weather east of here, and the center isn't even offshore yet. So things should probably go downhill for everyone west of Panama City in the next couple days. Depending on how far south Barry gets will probably determine whether or not us along the coast get much prior to ascent back toward land. A lot of times as you know, rain stays offshore or just along the shore and then stops only to reload until a center is closer. No telling how that's all going to play out yet.

[facemane]

With the Great Lakes trough trending stronger, chances for a TX landfall have decreased today. I'm feeling better here in Houston, as Louisiana looks like the likely landfall spot.

Not feeling great, but definitely better. However, for Louisiana, if the Euro verifies, they could possibly see some of their worst case scenarios emerge from the flooding side. The Morganza Spillway is around 50% opened right now, and i imagine that will have to be increased.

Do you have a link to this? The last I read was the Morganza spillway opening was delayed until further notice. The decision was made due to non threatening levels at Vicksburg,and several
levees along the Arkansas river had been topped reducing the force received at Morganza and the old river channel.

https://www.nola.com/news/environment/a ... dee50.html

[Tireman4]

There are still several 12z Euro Ensemble members that track towards TX. So while it looks like the threat towards TX has decreased a bit since yesterday, we certainly aren't out of the woods. TX residents still need to be paying close attention to future Barry.

From Florida to Texas...everyone be vigilant....

[LeonardRay]

The end game will be determined by the exact location the center forms, also by how deep the trough is upstate, if Barry forms 100 miles south of where the models are predicting could be huge to where the storm actually makes landfall.

[sphelps8681]

While certainly true, we didn't even have anything south of 35N, and many of the models as well as the NHC picked up on the weakness that will be found in the NE Gulf this evening. Once you get inside 96 hours, most of the time the models come into pretty decent agreement. That's not always the case, and I've seen one storm in the last few years where almost all tracks were on top of each other and it didn't verify. But that's the exception to the rule in the late 20-teens. I wouldn't completely write off the mid-TX coast and even less so the SETX coast at this point. But we're probably in a situation where the models will simply refine their solutions. So while I'd say everyone from WFL to the mid-TX Coast should be on guard, you have to think the yellow zone is somewhere between the MS/AL border and maybe Galveston with the redzone probably between the Mouth of the River and Vermilion Bay.

In any event, we won't have long to find out. So this isn't one of those 2 week NC vs. FL vs. Texas model wars on the horizon.

Is the inside of 96 hours with COC or does it matter?

It's hard to say and will more depend on the specifics regarding Barry's eventual strength and structure. The Gulf Coast is already seeing some weather east of here, and the center isn't even offshore yet. So things should probably go downhill for everyone west of Panama City in the next couple days. Depending on how far south Barry gets will probably determine whether or not us along the coast get much prior to ascent back toward land. A lot of times as you know, rain stays offshore or just along the shore and then stops only to reload until a center is closer. No telling how that's all going to play out yet.

The reason I am still concerned is because i am less than an hour from Sabine Pass and a little over an hour from Lake Charles. So if this comes closer to Texas I could possibly still have impacts. Probably rain/maybe flooding/wind. Just unsure when it sounds like it is a done deal for where it is headed from what is being said. Still learning so bare with me.

[Steve]

For sure. You'll hopefully be on the weaker side if it gets closer to the LA/TX border. But you're a lot closer in, so any west of models track, and not only might you be dealing with some fringe, you could have a stronger storm than what would likely hit SC LA. Prepare like it matters and make sure you have all your stuff together along with provisions to get you through a few days.

[Dylan]

 https://twitter.com/dylanfedericowx/status/1148683156314316801

[Steve]

Also NAM 18z is running and at 24 hours. Looks like it's showing the circulation coming together.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0918&fh=24

[sphelps8681]

For sure. You'll hopefully be on the weaker side if it gets closer to the LA/TX border. But you're a lot closer in, so any west of models track, and not only might you be dealing with some fringe, you could have a stronger storm than what would likely hit SC LA. Prepare like it matters and make sure you have all your stuff together along with provisions to get you through a few days.

Got all my supplies. Because I am a OCD planner. Thanks for all your information and everyone else on this board. I have loved every minute I spend on this site since 2007 gaining lots of knowledge that hopefully I can share with friends.

[Frank P]

Also NAM 18z is running and at 24 hours. Looks like it's showing the circulation coming together.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0918&fh=24

looks like a coast hugger thru the first 24 hours...

[TheProfessor]

3Km Nam is quite a bit further north this run.

[SoupBone]

With the Great Lakes trough trending stronger, chances for a TX landfall have decreased today. I'm feeling better here in Houston, as Louisiana looks like the likely landfall spot.

Not feeling great, but definitely better. However, for Louisiana, if the Euro verifies, they could possibly see some of their worst case scenarios emerge from the flooding side. The Morganza Spillway is around 50% opened right now, and i imagine that will have to be increased.

Do you have a link to this? The last I read was the Morganza spillway opening was delayed until further notice. The decision was made due to non threatening levels at Vicksburg,and several
levees along the Arkansas river had been topped reducing the force received at Morganza and the old river channel.

https://www.nola.com/news/environment/a ... dee50.html

Nope, because you're right. I have no idea why I typed Morganza instead of Bonnet Carre spillway.

[Frank P]

3Km Nam is quite a bit further north this run.

thru 51 hours 993 mB just off the mouth of the MS River.. looks to be doing loops

[South Texas Storms]

3Km Nam is quite a bit further north this run.

Meanwhile 18z 12km NAM still takes it to TX. Been pretty consistent in showing this the past several runs...but it is the NAM.

[Tireman4]

3Km Nam is quite a bit further north this run.

Meanwhile 18z 12km NAM still takes it to TX. Been pretty consistent in showing this the past several runs...but it is the NAM.

Hey young man, I named my dog NAM. I love him.....and this proves that the models are still all over the place.. and yes it is the NAM!!

[Hypercane_Kyle]

18z HRRR by 32 hours.

[TheProfessor]

The 3Km Nam is definitely hinting towards a storm where the northern half is sheared and doesn't have as much precipitation as the southern half. It will be interesting to see if that's how it plays out and if a potential storm were to recover from it.

[Frank P]

Nam at 58 hours down to 982 mb just off the SELA Coast

[wxman22]

18z NAM takes it to the middle Texas coast as a moderate to strong Tropical Storm fwiw. I wonder if the NAM takes it more westerly because the system hugs the coast which keeps the storm weaker, it may not feel the trough as much as a stronger system would.