ATL: BARRY - Models

[NDG]

18z GFS showing that consolidations of h85, h70 & h50 vorticities could happen as early as tomorrow evening if not a little sooner.

[Steve]

It was looking a little loose, but it's wrapping up at 48 hours. Rain building heavily on the south/southeast side. You know that's going to rotate at some point. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0918&fh=48

[Steve]

991mb at 72 hours (1pm Friday); south of Grand Isle and tightening. Heaviest rains are offshore with a 2" band across New Orleans

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0918&fh=72

986mb at 84 hours (1am Saturday); south of Houma.https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0918&fh=84

[Frank P]

Thru 84 H 18zGFS stronger 986 mb and more to the east than 12z

[NDG]

Good news for SE TX, bad news for southern LA on this shift to the right on landfall than previous 12z run, a little stronger as well.
Landfall Terrebone Parish, exactly match to on timing and track to the Euro!!!!!!!!!!!!

[SoupBone]

What's going on with the right hook over Terrebonne Parish? Looks to be moving slowly between hours 72 and 102.

[wxman57]

EC 12Z ensembles definitely shifted east. Moving inland a little east of Vermilion Bay then north up MS/LA border then sharply recurving. Most members have pressures in the low to upper 990s (TS). Canadian ensembles are similar. GFS is all over the place and generally weak.

[Steve]

Looks like landfall at Cocodrie. Band of "yellow" (12-20") just west of the City of New Orleans, so Laplace, Vacherie, Destrehan and all over that way get wrecked by the GFS Rainfall.

GFS Rainfall through 102h
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 918&fh=102

[Frank P]

Both the 12z Euro and 18zGFS are in close agreement relative to landfall location and intensity per their latest runs... both look close to Cat 1 intensity...

[TheProfessor]

25-30" of rain for a lot of NOLA on the 18z GFS, yeah, that would not be good.

[Steve]

big band of 2 feet of rain. haha. The city will be a swamp - different than Katrina, but if this verifies, you'll see people walking up to their stomachs in water in some streets.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 918&fh=126

[Blinhart]

big band of 2 feet of rain. haha. The city will be a swamp - different than Katrina, but if this verifies, you'll see people walking up to their stomachs in water in some streets.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 918&fh=126

They are already saying that the Mississippi River will crest just 1 foot below the top of the levees.

[CaneCurious]

25-30" of rain for a lot of NOLA on the 18z GFS, yeah, that would not be good.

We can not tolerate that amount of rain. We are already under a river flood warning.

[NDG]

big band of 2 feet of rain. haha. The city will be a swamp - different than Katrina, but if this verifies, you'll see people walking up to their stomachs in water in some streets.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 918&fh=126

They are already saying that the Mississippi River will crest just 1 foot below the top of the levees.

What concerns me is that it is based on what forecast, a weaker and further west track? Or based on the latest 12z GFS & Euro runs?

[Steve]

The river levees haven't failed in modern times unlike the canals did. But that's pretty extreme with the runoff. Unreal precipitation. Looks like a 500-1000 year flood on the heels of the last one or 5 or 10. Hopefully we don't have a catastrophe beyond what it's sure to be. My guess is that 24" of water between the mouth of the river through the bayous and across the city and northshore and then Coastal Mississippi, you'd have to have something like 40-50k homes flooded. It's an ugly scenario. If anyone has pay EC and has the rainfall totals from the 12z for SELA/SMS, please post or drop me a pm.

[Siker]

The river levees haven't failed in modern times unlike the canals did. But that's pretty extreme with the runoff. Unreal precipitation. Looks like a 500-1000 year flood on the heels of the last one or 5 or 10. Hopefully we don't have a catastrophe beyond what it's sure to be. My guess is that 24" of water between the mouth of the river through the bayous and across the city and northshore and then Coastal Mississippi, you'd have to have something like 40-50k homes flooded. It's an ugly scenario. If anyone has pay EC and has the rainfall totals from the 12z for SELA/SMS, please post or drop me a pm.

They are available from Weather.us for free (sorry on phone atm and can’t post).

[Tireman4]

The NAM is one of the worst models for TC forecasting, behind the NAVGEM. CMC is a close 3rd.

Now you just hold on old timer..you just criticized my go to model, my crazy uncle and the Navy. The Navy!..Sir, are you ok? Lol...(he he)

[Steve]

big band of 2 feet of rain. haha. The city will be a swamp - different than Katrina, but if this verifies, you'll see people walking up to their stomachs in water in some streets.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 918&fh=126

They are already saying that the Mississippi River will crest just 1 foot below the top of the levees.

What concerns me is that it is based on what forecast, a weaker and further west track? Or based on the latest 12z GFS & Euro runs?

I think it was damned if you do or damned if you don't. Only a smaller system farther south, weaker and west might have helped. But yeah, based off the 18z GFS and what Bastardi hinted at on his afternoon video from the EU, we're talking feet. Normally it would be great to get a few feet of rain. My apartment is like 18 feet off the ground. But the cars. There's not much you can do. We'll post one up in a parking garage downtown, one in my garage and I guess the truck in the driveway. But water laps up to the bottom of cars in the driveway whenever we have 2" in a downpour. No way out.

[artist]

Moved to discussion forum

[Steve]

Thanks siker. I always forget about that site.

Here's EC 12z through Monday night. Ugh.