ATL: BARRY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Nederlander]

I am seeing the strongest rotation signature just south of Apalachicola on both satellite and radar, but this does not match the surface obs. that wxman posted. Maybe it’s my eyes

[SoupBone]

Wow, this thread really quieted down once the models have become consistent on a LA landfall.
As if all of Houston has vacated this site

Nope, still here. I think every one is in the models thread instead.

[Aric Dunn]

Surface obs with satellite confirm that the weak low is over the central FL Panhandle:
http://wxman57.com/images/92Lb.JPG

Don't tell that to a NWS employee, they'll say it's in the western Big Bend

Thats because it is... not up there any longer it was a transient festure.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1148707555386023941

[sphelps8681]

Wow, this thread really quieted down once the models have become consistent on a LA landfall.
As if all of Houston has vacated this site

Nope, still here. I think every one is in the models thread instead.

I am still here!! Not that helps. LOL. BTW: No kickoff from Charlie Brown yet.

[artist]

https://www.nola.com/news/weather/artic ... a99d0.html

While levees in the New Orleans area were raised about 2 feet in the past few years to deal with new estimates of the effects of climate change-forced sea level rise, the Army Corps of Engineers has not yet begun raising new floodwalls along its complex on the levee in the Riverbend area.

The corps has never had to prepare for the combined assault of a tropical storm and a high-water event on the river. But it is now making plans to essentially fight a war on two fronts.

“We have had high-water events in hurricane season but we’ve never had an elevation forecast like this,” Corps spokesman Ricky Boyett said.

Boyett said that at this point there are no concerns about how the system will hold up.

“Right now we’re pretty confident in the system,” Boyett said. “It’s doing well, it’s holding up pretty well. We’re not seeing any areas of concern.”

Boyett stressed that the highest forecast at the moment would still see the water fall a foot below the lowest points on the river levees. Still, the Corps is likely to shut the flood gates that sit behind many areas of the levees – such as in the French Quarter – to provide an additional layer of protection.

“We’re planning for the worst, hoping for the best,” he said. “But what we don’t want is for residents to hold off on their own preparations, now is the time to make sure they have everything in order.”

[TexWx]

Wow, this thread really quieted down once the models have become consistent on a LA landfall.
As if all of Houston has vacated this site

Nope, still here. I think every one is in the models thread instead.

Still here.

[Tireman4]

Wow, this thread really quieted down once the models have become consistent on a LA landfall.
As if all of Houston has vacated this site

Nope, still here. I think every one is in the models thread instead.

Still here



Still here..and we also hang out at Wxinfinity..our local weather board..

[GCANE]

That was quick.

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT

[cycloneye]

Agree 100% wirh Mark.

 https://twitter.com/hurricanetrack/status/1148719771564892161

[gfsperpendicular]

Might we see a PTC at the next discussion?

[tropicwatch]

No sign of a distinctive circulation with the movement of shower activity yet. Just a broad weak circulation predominantly over land it looks like.

[Aric Dunn]

The sweet spot.

[Steve]

medium res broad view:

[TheStormExpert]

With models trending east towards a Louisiana landfall allowing less time over the Gulf of Mexico I just don’t see a hurricane threat from likely future Barry. Moderate-Strong Tropical Storm seems most likely landfall intensity imo.

[Javlin]

I was kinda thinking the same area Aric saw that tower to W stands out your line runs through it.

[cycloneye]

90%/90%

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Tue Jul 9 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad low pressure area located over the Florida Panhandle and
the far northeastern Gulf of Mexico is producing widespread but
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
are conducive for development, and a tropical depression is expected
to form late Wednesday or Thursday while the low moves slowly
westward across the northern Gulf of Mexico. Tropical Storm,
Hurricane and Storm Surge Watches could be required for a portion of
the northern Gulf Coast on Wednesday. An Air Force Reserve Unit
reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance
tomorrow afternoon. In addition, this disturbance has the potential
to produce heavy rainfall from the Upper Texas Coast to the Florida
Panhandle during the next several days, and interests in those areas
should continue to monitor the progress of this system. For more
information, please see products issued by your local weather
forecast office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[Nimbus]

will spin off tampa affect low south of Panama you see spin that area other here notice too on radar you see storm going round that spin

Winds at the Tampa buoy have swung around from the WNW to the WSW at 210 and the latest burst of convection looks more like a feeder band.

Hot tower south of Apalachicola in a lower shear area that might become a center?

[TheStormExpert]

Doesn’t look like there’s going to be any PTC advisories issued ahead of time, then again development really wasn’t anticipated by many until Wednesday and watches and warnings are expected to be posted tomorrow.

[Steve]

With models trending east towards a Louisiana landfall allowing less time over the Gulf of Mexico I just don’t see a hurricane threat from likely future Barry. Moderate-Strong Tropical Storm seems most likely landfall intensity imo.

It's going to be close. Obviously the closer to shore or onland the track, the less strong it's going to be. Bet would be somewhere between 60-85mph if it makes it as far west as St. Mary Parish, and that would be intensifying at least up until close to landfall. Outside shot at 90, but I don't think it makes it past Cat 1 if it hits Louisiana unless it stalls a little and hits closer to Lake Charles.