ATL: BARRY - Models

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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#361 Postby MississippiWx » Tue Jul 09, 2019 5:28 pm

Intensity guidance continues to creep up.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#362 Postby mcheer23 » Tue Jul 09, 2019 5:29 pm

HWRF and HMON are finally running.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#363 Postby Hurricane Andrew » Tue Jul 09, 2019 5:30 pm

More flooding, eh? I wonder how many of my old USAR buddies will be rolling with this one.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#364 Postby MississippiWx » Tue Jul 09, 2019 5:30 pm

mcheer23 wrote:HWRF and HMON are finally running.


Hallelujah.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#365 Postby South Texas Storms » Tue Jul 09, 2019 5:31 pm

It's important to note that the average track forecast error by the NHC at 96 hours is 150 nautical miles. Just because the models look to have converged on LA today, it's still 96 hours away from landfall. Don't let your guard down yet if you live in TX or MS.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#366 Postby TheProfessor » Tue Jul 09, 2019 5:32 pm

Steve wrote:The river levees haven't failed in modern times unlike the canals did. But that's pretty extreme with the runoff. Unreal precipitation. Looks like a 500-1000 year flood on the heels of the last one or 5 or 10. Hopefully we don't have a catastrophe beyond what it's sure to be. My guess is that 24" of water between the mouth of the river through the bayous and across the city and northshore and then Coastal Mississippi, you'd have to have something like 40-50k homes flooded. It's an ugly scenario. If anyone has pay EC and has the rainfall totals from the 12z for SELA/SMS, please post or drop me a pm.


Edit, didn't realize this was already posted.
Last edited by TheProfessor on Tue Jul 09, 2019 5:34 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#367 Postby Frank P » Tue Jul 09, 2019 5:33 pm

South Texas Storms wrote:It's important to note that the average track forecast error by the NHC at 96 hours is 150 nautical miles. Just because the models look to have converged on LA today, it's still 96 hours away from landfall. Don't let your guard down yet if you live in TX or MS.

If it hits in SELA the MS coast will definitely feel some effects, so we never let our guard down until it’s well north of us!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#368 Postby TheProfessor » Tue Jul 09, 2019 5:42 pm

There are definitely some Euro ensembles that take the heaviest core of rain into Mississippi and Alabama, as well as some that take it into Houston and Galveston(Which would be a track through the mid Texas coast)
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#369 Postby pcolaman » Tue Jul 09, 2019 5:58 pm

Did anyone notice the 22 and 23rd of the gfs? 312 and 318 hours?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#370 Postby MississippiWx » Tue Jul 09, 2019 6:02 pm

pcolaman wrote:Did anyone notice the 22 and 23rd of the gfs? 312 and 318 hours?


Lol. Looks like the GFS circles future Barry back into almost the same exact place it is currently before attempting to redevelop it.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#371 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Jul 09, 2019 6:14 pm

MississippiWx wrote:
pcolaman wrote:Did anyone notice the 22 and 23rd of the gfs? 312 and 318 hours?


Lol. Looks like the GFS circles future Barry back into almost the same exact place it is currently before attempting to redevelop it.

BRUH
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#372 Postby Steve » Tue Jul 09, 2019 6:17 pm

lol the return of Ivan [tm] <-- biggest coup of the UKMET of all time
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#373 Postby Javlin » Tue Jul 09, 2019 6:18 pm

9WHWRF a little faster than the HMON and stronger but not by much.The HWRF @60h symmetrical 81kts 27.5N 91W while HMON 27.8N 89.1W 70kts loose they both looked liked the W movement basically stopped.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#374 Postby TheStormExpert » Tue Jul 09, 2019 6:28 pm

MississippiWx wrote:Intensity guidance continues to creep up.

https://i.imgur.com/BvqE73k.png

The consensus TVCN model the NHC closely follows when making intensity forecasts only calls for a moderate to strong TS at landfall.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#375 Postby ColdMiser123 » Tue Jul 09, 2019 6:33 pm

HMON makes landfall in eastern Louisiana as a strong tropical storm, ~990 pressure.

HWRF shows RI, will make landfall in western Louisiana with <945 pressure.
Last edited by ColdMiser123 on Tue Jul 09, 2019 6:36 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#376 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Tue Jul 09, 2019 6:35 pm

Lol the HWRF is more nuts than the 4k NAM.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#377 Postby shiny-pebble » Tue Jul 09, 2019 6:36 pm

HWRF Landfall @943 mb

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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#378 Postby MississippiWx » Tue Jul 09, 2019 6:37 pm

ColdMiser123 wrote:HMON makes landfall in eastern Louisiana as a strong tropical storm, ~990 pressure.

HWRF shows RI, will make landfall in western Louisiana with <945 pressure.


HWRF doing HWRF things. 943mb with 130kt+ winds at 850mb.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#379 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Jul 09, 2019 6:38 pm

18z HWRF... :double:

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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#380 Postby Steve » Tue Jul 09, 2019 6:38 pm

HWRF at 84:
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