ATL: BARRY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[HeeBGBz]

We're having some storms passing through Biloxi. There's a severe storm warning to the west of me with 60 mph wind possibilities. Another to my east. I've been admiring the towering storm clouds this afternoon. Looks like we may get a lot rain this week.

[MGC]

https://www.nola.com/news/weather/article_47445066-a28a-11e9-8d9f-876b05ca99d0.html

While levees in the New Orleans area were raised about 2 feet in the past few years to deal with new estimates of the effects of climate change-forced sea level rise, the Army Corps of Engineers has not yet begun raising new floodwalls along its complex on the levee in the Riverbend area.

The corps has never had to prepare for the combined assault of a tropical storm and a high-water event on the river. But it is now making plans to essentially fight a war on two fronts.

“We have had high-water events in hurricane season but we’ve never had an elevation forecast like this,” Corps spokesman Ricky Boyett said.

Boyett said that at this point there are no concerns about how the system will hold up.

“Right now we’re pretty confident in the system,” Boyett said. “It’s doing well, it’s holding up pretty well. We’re not seeing any areas of concern.”

Boyett stressed that the highest forecast at the moment would still see the water fall a foot below the lowest points on the river levees. Still, the Corps is likely to shut the flood gates that sit behind many areas of the levees – such as in the French Quarter – to provide an additional layer of protection.

“We’re planning for the worst, hoping for the best,” he said. “But what we don’t want is for residents to hold off on their own preparations, now is the time to make sure they have everything in order.”

Current Mississippi River stage in New Orleans is a shade over 16 feet. Levees protect the city to 20 feet. Corps of Engineers is expecting the river to rise to 19 feet due to surge. Going to be a close call. Rainfall is another arrow the city will need to dodge. Might be a good time to take a vacation away from NOLA....MGC

[Hurricane Andrew]

I'd say the location of consolidation, in terms of the LLC and MLC, is pretty important in how long this thing is over water, and how far west or east it might go.

The WPC (formerly HPC) is already predicting QPF maximums of 7-10" over land in the D1-D7 period (link below).

For anyone in the "hot zone", my advice (and I am not a professional meteorologist) is as follows: review the emergency plans of your municipality, as well as your personal plans. Stock up on supplies, make contact with friends/family, and get in a "storm state of mind". It never hurts to be prepared.

EDIT (forgot the link): https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1562717669

[NDG]

Great structure, as if it wants to create its own environment. Definitely the strongest vorticity is in the mid levels, as it tracks slowly WSW over the next 24-48 hrs an LLC will be forming or reforming closer to it as indicated by the models by then.

[Ellsey]

Well I just remembered to make my annual Storm2k donation in an attempt to appease the storm gods and keep things away from my parents' house.

This thing looks like it wants to go, but I know looks can be deceiving, so it's back to watching for me.

[Aric Dunn]

Great structure, as if it wants to create its own environment. Definitely the strongest vorticity is in the mid levels, as it tracks slowly WSW over the next 24-48 hrs an LLC will be forming or reforming closer to it as indicated by the models by then.

https://i.imgur.com/nBbjI7F.gif

Yeah, this type of setup where there is not a large scale shear axis and broad anti cyclone that is offset, often the deep convection will enhance the upper high over top. So this shear some of the models show might not be there.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track:

Location: 29.8°N 85.0°W
Maximum Winds: 20 kt Gusts: nan kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1011 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1014 mb
Radius of Circulation: 150 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 80 NM

[SunnyThoughts]

Sitting in a Hotel room in Houston tonight...headed back to Pensacola tomorrow afternoon, that is if my flight isn't delayed. Won't be bad weather here...and maybe not even in Pensacola...its all the in between we have to fly through that worries me. Stay safe everybody, be ready.

[StruThiO]

new Tidbits
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hM7jpwx_k-k

[cycloneye]

Jim Cantore is on the move. Where will his final destination be is the question.

 https://twitter.com/bggwx/status/1148748095154528261

[wxman57]

Sitting in a Hotel room in Houston tonight...headed back to Pensacola tomorrow afternoon, that is if my flight isn't delayed. Won't be bad weather here...and maybe not even in Pensacola...its all the in between we have to fly through that worries me. Stay safe everybody, be ready.

You should be fine. A few thunderstorms along the coast won't impact your flight.

[TheStormExpert]

Great structure, as if it wants to create its own environment. Definitely the strongest vorticity is in the mid levels, as it tracks slowly WSW over the next 24-48 hrs an LLC will be forming or reforming closer to it as indicated by the models by then.

https://i.imgur.com/nBbjI7F.gif

It has the look, let’s just hope it doesn’t get the time to take advantage!

[gatorcane]

It definitely has that look. I would go with 100% chance of this developing. A hurricane is definitely not out of the question. It also looks like there would be a bit less shear if not a near perfect upper environment if it tracks more west while if it recurves further east there may be a bit of northerly shear but not enough to keep it from strengthening through landfall.

[jasons2k]

So far most of the convection seems to be either south of Mobile moving towards NOLA, or offshore the Tampa area. Not much up towards the best track center right now. There does appear to be a circulation west of the Tampa Bay area, probably one of many.

[SoupBone]

Sitting in a Hotel room in Houston tonight...headed back to Pensacola tomorrow afternoon, that is if my flight isn't delayed. Won't be bad weather here...and maybe not even in Pensacola...its all the in between we have to fly through that worries me. Stay safe everybody, be ready.

You should be fine. A few thunderstorms along the coast won't impact your flight.

Why the sudden change with the latest Euro? Pretty significant westward shift.

[NDG]

new Tidbits
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hM7jpwx_k-k

Great explanation by Levi.
In this case, a stronger system will tend to track further west towards SW LA or TX while a weaker hurricane will track further east towards central or SE LA.
The track is by no way on stone yet.

[MississippiWx]

new Tidbits
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hM7jpwx_k-k

Great explanation by Levi.
In this case, a stronger system will tend to track further west towards SW LA or TX while a weaker hurricane will track further east towards central or SE LA.
The track is by no way on stone yet.

That shows you how difficult the track forecast is for this system. It's depending on the strength which is the most difficult forecast of all! I could see this rapidly intensifying and becoming a very strong system. If enough strong convection persists, it could fight off any effects of shear. I could also see the alignment process taking longer and leading to a weaker storm that starts strengthening quickly right before landfall. Literally a coin flip.

[Jag95]

Jim Cantore is on the move. Where will his final destination be is the question.

Traveling south on I65 just north of I10 in Mobile right there. Just missed him. Happy trails Jim.

[gatorcane]

Looks like rain from the far outer edges of 92L is encroaching on NOLA.

[SoupBone]

new Tidbits
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hM7jpwx_k-k

Great explanation by Levi.
In this case, a stronger system will tend to track further west towards SW LA or TX while a weaker hurricane will track further east towards central or SE LA.
The track is by no way on stone yet.

Great explanation, but this existed before this run as well. It's just such a dramatic shift.