ATL: BARRY - Models

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SoupBone
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#441 Postby SoupBone » Tue Jul 09, 2019 10:50 pm

Soooo no one is interested in the GFS?

Looks like it's meandering south central Louisiana at 72 hours.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#442 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 09, 2019 10:51 pm

00z FV3-GFS stronger and more west.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#443 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Tue Jul 09, 2019 10:53 pm

MississippiWx wrote:Guys, I am not saying it won't happen.

The HWRF is more than likely over-doing it, but it might not be! That's all I'm saying. :double:


Let's all hope it is because if it isn't, that nightmare scenario I mentioned earlier in the discussion thread could well become a stark reality in a few short days. :eek:
Last edited by Hybridstorm_November2001 on Tue Jul 09, 2019 10:55 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#444 Postby MississippiWx » Tue Jul 09, 2019 10:53 pm

0z GFS is joining the 18z Euro and 18z HWRF in the west party. Might be a new trend.

Edit: Welp, it hits the brick wall that is the mid-level ridge from Texas to the Rockies and goes NNE.
Last edited by MississippiWx on Tue Jul 09, 2019 10:55 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#445 Postby mcheer23 » Tue Jul 09, 2019 10:53 pm

GFS a bit west...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#446 Postby LeonardRay » Tue Jul 09, 2019 10:54 pm

GFS is stair stepping but seems more West

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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#447 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 09, 2019 10:55 pm

Landfall at 980 mbs.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#448 Postby mcheer23 » Tue Jul 09, 2019 10:55 pm

Felt the trough big time and pushed out to the NE...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#449 Postby Steve » Tue Jul 09, 2019 10:55 pm

Hooking back across Louisiana. Haha. Were ****ed in New Orleans if that verifies.

Here comes the yellow

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1000&fh=78
Last edited by Steve on Tue Jul 09, 2019 10:57 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#450 Postby LeonardRay » Tue Jul 09, 2019 10:56 pm

GFS made a sharp right turn at 96 hours. Not sure I'm buying it.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#451 Postby TheProfessor » Tue Jul 09, 2019 10:56 pm

GFS definitely west, did some weird bouncing before heading Northward. Faster storm this run, which may be why is jumped west. It also takes a bit longer to develop.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#452 Postby MississippiWx » Tue Jul 09, 2019 10:59 pm

The ridge placement over the Rockies into Texas is huge. Barry hits the wall and shoots through a weakness to the north. The only other option is to move due south and hurricanes don't like to move south. If the ridge is modeled too far to the east, then Texas gets into the ball game.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#453 Postby SoupBone » Tue Jul 09, 2019 11:00 pm

LeonardRay wrote:GFS made a sharp right turn at 96 hours. Not sure I'm buying it.

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I'm guessing it feels that trough. It's going to be a big player.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#454 Postby Wx_Warrior » Tue Jul 09, 2019 11:00 pm

Next up EURO

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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#455 Postby TheProfessor » Tue Jul 09, 2019 11:03 pm

The 0z GFS has an impressive feeder band, even being further west it doesn't spare NOLA and North Shore.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#456 Postby Steve » Tue Jul 09, 2019 11:04 pm

Main event yeah. But HWrF, HMON, HWRF-P, Canadian and JMA are before the EC
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#457 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 09, 2019 11:05 pm

Steve wrote:Main event yeah. But HWrF, HMON, HWRF-P, Canadian and JMA are before the EC


And UKMET.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#458 Postby ColdMiser123 » Tue Jul 09, 2019 11:07 pm

UK is way west, and still quite intense.

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 27.6N 88.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 11.07.2019 36 27.7N 88.8W 1006 30
0000UTC 12.07.2019 48 27.7N 90.4W 998 38
1200UTC 12.07.2019 60 27.7N 92.3W 990 58
0000UTC 13.07.2019 72 27.8N 93.1W 977 68
1200UTC 13.07.2019 84 28.8N 94.2W 951 90
0000UTC 14.07.2019 96 30.0N 95.0W 962 59
1200UTC 14.07.2019 108 31.4N 96.1W 979 43
0000UTC 15.07.2019 120 32.9N 97.6W 986 31
1200UTC 15.07.2019 132 34.3N 99.1W 994 35
0000UTC 16.07.2019 144 35.8N 100.5W 999 31

The coordinates at 12:00 UTC on July 13th are actually still offshore, so the minimum pressure is actually likely even lower than shown here.
Last edited by ColdMiser123 on Tue Jul 09, 2019 11:08 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#459 Postby MississippiWx » Tue Jul 09, 2019 11:07 pm

Trend with 0z guidance has been a faster motion initially. CMC is also faster.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#460 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Jul 09, 2019 11:07 pm

cycloneye wrote:
Steve wrote:Main event yeah. But HWrF, HMON, HWRF-P, Canadian and JMA are before the EC


And UKMET.

00z UKMET:
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