ATL: BARRY - Models

[mcheer23]

UKMET Galveston.....

[CrazyC83]

No matter what, we can't rule anyone out at this point. Anyone from Corpus Christi to Pascagoula is fair game.

[cycloneye]

Yikes.Cat 2 from UKMET.

[stormlover2013]

Pic of ukmet ?

[ColdMiser123]

0z Best Track had the low over land once again, so not sure if we are going to get HWRF/HMON runs at 0z. Likely will at 6z.

[MississippiWx]

0z Best Track had the low over land once again, so not sure if we are going to get HWRF/HMON runs at 0z. Likely will at 6z.

HMON is running now.

[floridasun78]

so now models want out dinner chance their mind want go more west ? let see all join party? one thing i have say let wait to see were center form that way models get better handed of it could go west and east in models next few days

[TheProfessor]

The 0z Ukmet starts the low quite a bit further south than the other model, which leads to the scary Galveston solution. A storm that far south would likely struggle to feel the weakness to the north.

[South Texas Storms]

Trend with 0z guidance has been a faster motion initially. CMC is also faster.

Yep, sure is. That will likely lead to a farther west track.

[BobHarlem]

Pic of ukmet ?

Blue line that goes across Galveston:

[ROCK]

Consolidate the COC and then let the best track models
run..Uk is outlier but reliable Euro sniffed west also a few runs ago. Can’t jump off the ledge now..) too early to tell

[Stormcenter]

GFS and CMC sticking to SE LA.

[MississippiWx]

Trend with 0z guidance has been a faster motion initially. CMC is also faster.

Yep, sure is. That will likely lead to a farther west track.

True, but I'm wondering how far west it can actually go with a huge mid-level ridge acting as a wall. The UKMET is likely unrealistic because of this reasoning. I think TX/LA coast is very possible. Galveston seems unrealistic, but we will see. Very complicated steering and not as simple as I have pointed out, I'm sure.

[ROCK]

GFS and CMC sticking to SE LA.

Wait for it...) UKMET is super reliable..))

[South Texas Storms]

Trend with 0z guidance has been a faster motion initially. CMC is also faster.

Yep, sure is. That will likely lead to a farther west track.

True, but I'm wondering how far west it can actually go with a huge mid-level ridge acting as a wall. The UKMET is likely unrealistic because of this reasoning. I think TX/LA coast is very possible. Galveston seems unrealistic, but we will see. Very complicated steering and not as simple as I have pointed out, I'm sure.

I'm not sure how far west the limit is. We've had several Euro ensemble members taking it as far west as Corpus for days now.

[stormlover2013]

Trend with 0z guidance has been a faster motion initially. CMC is also faster.

Yep, sure is. That will likely lead to a farther west track.

True, but I'm wondering how far west it can actually go with a huge mid-level ridge acting as a wall. The UKMET is likely unrealistic because of this reasoning. I think TX/LA coast is very possible. Galveston seems unrealistic, but we will see. Very complicated steering and not as simple as I have pointed out, I'm sure.

Ukmet is the Second best behind the European in the day 5 or less range.

[ROCK]

Trend with 0z guidance has been a faster motion initially. CMC is also faster.

Yep, sure is. That will likely lead to a farther west track.

True, but I'm wondering how far west it can actually go with a huge mid-level ridge acting as a wall. The UKMET is likely unrealistic because of this reasoning. I think TX/LA coast is very possible. Galveston seems unrealistic, but we will see. Very complicated steering and not as simple as I have pointed out, I'm sure.

It’s July and ridging will be there. That front proged to drop down to TN and GA lol...good luck with that lmao

[MississippiWx]

Yep, sure is. That will likely lead to a farther west track.

True, but I'm wondering how far west it can actually go with a huge mid-level ridge acting as a wall. The UKMET is likely unrealistic because of this reasoning. I think TX/LA coast is very possible. Galveston seems unrealistic, but we will see. Very complicated steering and not as simple as I have pointed out, I'm sure.

Ukmet is the Second best behind the European in the day 5 or less range.

Statistics for models don't mean anything with individual storms. Sure, all of us will take the Euro over most any other model, but that doesn't mean it will be right. I'm taking this at face value and what models are predicting for the 500mb pattern. It seems odd for any model to show a storm driving straight through the middle of a strong 500mb ridge. I would like to see the wind flows with height from the UKMET, but I don't think we can find that info anywhere on the internet.

[ColdMiser123]

HMON and HWRF are both SW and stronger than 18z so far.

[Steve]

I've been out and am behind.

O.G.FS goes in around Grand Isle just after midnight Friday at 992 on the TT Resolution. It gloes out through Mississippi and then sort of hangs around Monroe and SE AR for a bit and heads out north.

Canadian goes in a bit farther west and moves up the Sabine River and TX/LA border slowly and meanders a bit near Shreveport.

JMA super low res has a circulation across much of SELA in 72 hours.

HWRF at 39 hours has the low south of Grand Isle. Seems a bit fast maybe? We'll see where it goes.

HWRF-P hasn't started 00z run output yet. 18z was the worst case probably of all the options with a 944 moving into Cameron Parish. Looks bad though less people near the coast there. We'll see what it brings later.

HMON is out to 54 hours. That is valid for 1am Friday. Storm is pretty far south at about 27.3 and at 988mb- It's not far enough out yet to see if it makes the turn.

I'm gonna watch but I'm probably done for today unless something sick comes out. Keep me posted.