ATL: BARRY - Models

[Cataegis96]

West by quite a bit relative to 12z now at hour 66, a few mb stronger.

Hour 72, due south of central Louisiana Coast. ~994 mb.

[USTropics]

00z ECMWF @ 72 hrs:

[Steve]

+/- 28.6N 92.2W at 72 hours.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1000&fh=72

We'll see if it makes a run for the Upper Texas Coast, Cameron Parish/Jefferson County or somewhere east of there. 96 hour frame should tell the story unless it gets stuck or stalls.

[Cataegis96]

Stationary hour 78 to 84.

[Steve]

Stationary hour 78 to 84.

Punishment for the bayou (what we call down there)

[crimi481]

No models mention the circulation west of Tampa?
Bands forming on my coast - Venice
https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.p ... W&loop=yes

[Steve]

96 into Cameron Parish

[Cataegis96]

96 into Cameron Parish

~982 mb at landfall.

[USTropics]

00z ECMWF has landfall in extreme SW LA @ 96 hours:

[Steve]

No models mention the circulation west of Tampa?
Bands forming on my coast - Venice
https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.p ... W&loop=yes

Looks like an eddy feature. Check out the overall satellite. It's mostly embedded in outflow which will show up better tomorrow on visible.

[Steve]

Also, system is moving north and is near Shreveport/Longview at 120. 144 it nudges west along the TX/OK border (Red River) so that means probably central Louisiana takes the brunt of the most rain instead of SELA.

European and HWRF is a formidable model alliance. I wouldn't bet money against that regardless if it later shifts another 100 miles east or west since we're 3 1/2 days or so out from the model run. Watch out Intracoastal City, Holly Beach, Hackberry, Lafayette, Lake Charles and then over toward Vidor and Orange.

[USTropics]

No models mention the circulation west of Tampa?
Bands forming on my coast - Venice
https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.p ... W&loop=yes

Looks like an eddy feature. Check out the overall satellite. It's mostly embedded in outflow which will show up better tomorrow on visible.

As is the case with these type of systems, the general area of vorticity is still a bit elongated (which is creating multiple areas of low pressure/surface velocity signatures). Surface signs point to this occurring right now:




The 12z ECMWF also correctly forecasted this feature:

[Steve]

Yeah it did. That feature should just merge with general unsettledness down there as the backside outflow gets better in the next day to day and a half.

[Bayousaint]

Stationary hour 78 to 84.

Punishment for the bayou (what we call down there)

Okay, I’ll bite. Y’all have led me well through the years. I’m in LaFourche Parish. Unfortunately, all of my experts are too old and have passed away. What do you see for our area. I’m leaving tomorrow. Should I take my family with me???

[TheProfessor]

The trend tonight was definitely for a faster moving storm that gets further west. It will be interesting to see if the models continue this.

[South Texas Storms]

The trend tonight was definitely for a faster moving storm that gets further west. It will be interesting to see if the models continue this.

Yeah that's why I said earlier today that TX isn't out of the woods yet. Still a very uncertain forecast.

[TheProfessor]

The GEFS run is also more clustered tonight and further west of the 18z(much closer to the 12z run.) It would suggest a mid Louisiana coast landfall right now.

[Steve]

Stationary hour 78 to 84.

Punishment for the bayou (what we call down there)

Okay, I’ll bite. Y’all have led me well through the years. I’m in LaFourche Parish. Unfortunately, all of my experts are too old and have passed away. What do you see for our area. I’m leaving tomorrow. Should I take my family with me???

It’s hard to say. If you’re lucky and the European and HWRF are right, we will all get some squalls and gusty winds on the fringe east side (and while it’s passing by). If the models that like SC LA coast are correct, you’re probably under the gun. Depends on where you are of course. I’ve seen Rita flood, Raceland and back in the old days (Juan 85), south of Galliano flood.

[TheStormExpert]

The three most reliable global models 00z run recap.

GFS (South-Central Louisiana @ 979mb)


Euro (Lake Charles, Louisiana @ 982mb)


UKMET (Galveston, Texas @ 956mb)

[stormlover2013]

Euro ensembles shifted really west


https://weather.us/cyclone-tracks/euro/ ... 0-240.html