ATL: BARRY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tropicwatch]

Not seeing any pressure drops from buoys within 250nm of 28.0N and 85.0W.

[GCANE]

Looks like they got the bullseye right on 28.7N 86.2W

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 101140.jpg

[artist]

Unbelievable flooding video. Wish I knew how to embed tweet

https://mobile.twitter.com/elleinthecit ... 6246694912

[Nederlander]

Where I see the center forming at (purely based on vis imagery)


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[Siker]

That mid-level circ is starting to look quite vigorous... I'm keeping my eye on the area around 28N 87.2W.

[url]https://i.ibb.co/wwhk2fV/goes16-vis-92-L-201907101412.jpg [/url]

Yeah, definitely a couple blowups angling into there. The little low level circ to the north appears to be losing its west-east flow with each frame on visible. We'll see if it actually dissipates / gets absorbed by something to the south.

[wxman57]

Looks like NHC went with a track between Lafayette & Lake Charles with landfall at 75 kts. Not sure it'll get that strong, but that's where I was thinking was most likely.

[SoupBone]

Looks like NHC went with a track between Lafayette & Lake Charles with landfall at 75 kts. Not sure it'll get that strong, but that's where I was thinking was most likely.

I asked in the models thread, but a Lake Chuck track would still put the Greater Houston Area under tropical storm force winds, correct?

[davidiowx]

Looks like NHC went with a track between Lafayette & Lake Charles with landfall at 75 kts. Not sure it'll get that strong, but that's where I was thinking was most likely.

I asked in the models thread, but a Lake Chuck track would still put the Greater Houston Area under tropical storm force winds, correct?

Here is the NHC's first TS wind speed probability map for this system.

[ScottNAtlanta]

That mid-level circ is starting to look quite vigorous... I'm keeping my eye on the area around 28N 87.2W.

[url]https://i.ibb.co/wwhk2fV/goes16-vis-92-L-201907101412.jpg [/url]

Yeah, definitely a couple blowups angling into there. The little low level circ to the north appears to be losing its west-east flow with each frame on visible. We'll see if it actually dissipates / gets absorbed by something to the south.

The center to the north looks more like its rotating around another broader center

[PTrackerLA]

Guess it's time to prepare in the Lafayette area . Didn't get supplies last but will on my lunch break today. Here we go...

[TheStormExpert]

Looks like NHC went with a track between Lafayette & Lake Charles with landfall at 75 kts. Not sure it'll get that strong, but that's where I was thinking was most likely.

It’s the Gulf of Mexico, if anything it might be too conservative.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Many of the buoys from east of the mouth of the Mississippi to offshore of the panhandle are reporting west winds then a little further east they turn south.

[SouthDadeFish]

I want to take a moment to point out that the NHC is forecasting a 25 kt intensity increase of a potential TC between 1200 UTC 12 July and 1200 UTC 13 July. That's basically right at the threshold for the classic definition of RI (30 kt in 24 h). I think we have come a long way in the atmospheric science community to have quasi-reliable numerical model predictions to almost explicitly forecast the RI of a pre-genesis disturbance in the 24 h leading up to landfall. Now I guess we'll have to see if the forecast verifies.

[cycloneye]

Marck Sudduth going to chase.

 https://twitter.com/hurricanetrack/status/1148968651904704512

[MississippiWx]

NHC points out very favorable environment for strengthening with an impressive outflow pattern predicted. That's not good.

[Blinhart]

Marck Sudduth going to chase.

https://twitter.com/hurricanetrack/status/1148968651904704512

I don't do twitter, might want to tell him to check out Kinder, La (Coushatta Casino) for a hotel, it is still within an hour or two of the coast and areas that authorities will allow people to go. Also far enough away that he wouldn't have to worry about all the major coastal flooding.

[Siker]

Can't believe they moved the 1min floater off of this. Should return at some point.

[StruThiO]

Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019
1000 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2019

High-resolution satellite imagery along with surface and upper-air
data indicate that the broad low pressure system located over the
northeastern Gulf of Mexico has become a little better defined. The
initial intensity of 25 kt is based on an average of 1-minute wind
speeds of 20-33 kt reported by ships and buoys well south of the
poorly defined center. Although the system is currently experiencing
some northerly vertical wind shear, the shear is expected to
gradually subside over the next day or so, and the low has a high
chance of becoming a tropical depression or tropical storm by
Thursday. Since this system has the potential to bring tropical
storm conditions and storm surge to portions of the coast of
Louisiana by late Thursday or Friday, Potential Tropical Cyclone
advisories are being initiated at this time.

The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 245/07 kt. Some erratic
motion will be possible during the 24 hours or until a well-defined
center develops. However, the general motion as indicated by the
global and regional models is expected to be toward the west-
southwest or southwest. By Friday, the cyclone is forecast to turn
toward the west-northwest and then turn northwestward by Saturday
into a developing break in a deep-layer ridge that currently extends
from the southeastern U.S. westward across the southern Plains and
into the Desert Southwest. The timing of the ridge breakdown owing
to a shortwave trough moving southeastward out of the northern
Plains will be critical since a later/earlier turn by the cyclone
would shift the track west/east of the current forecast. The model
guidance is widely divergent after 48 hours with the UKMET model the
farthest west showing landfall along the Upper Texas coast, and the
GFS and HMON models farther east with landfall in south-central
Louisiana. The ECMWF model is about midway between these two
extremes, and the official track forecast leans toward that
model since it has performed well during this system's
pre-development phase. Note that forecast uncertainty for
disturbances is generally larger than for tropical cyclones,
especially beyond 48-72 hours.

Only slow strengthening is expected for the next 24-36 hours due to
the lack of a well-defined center and inner-core wind field, along
with some modest northerly wind shear. By 48 hours and beyond,
however, the combination of atmospheric and oceanic conditions
become ideal for intensification. The very low shear shear
conditions, an impressive outflow pattern forecast by all of the
global and regional models, and anomalously warm sea-surface
temperatures of 30-31C argue for quick intensification, but given
that the system is still in the formative stages, the official
intensity forecast is a little below IVCN consensus through 48
hours and trends higher toward the ECMWF-based SHIPS guidance at
72 hours.

Key Messages:

1. A tropical depression is expected to form later today or
Thursday. Conditions appear favorable for this system to strengthen
to a hurricane at it approaches the central Gulf Coast by the
weekend.

2. Dangerous storm surge is possible in portions of southeast
Louisiana, and a Storm Surge Watch has been issued for this area.
The risk for dangerous storm surge impacts also exists farther west
along the Louisiana coast into the Upper Texas coast, and additional
storm surge watches may be needed later today or tonight. Residents
in these areas should monitor the progress of this system and listen
to any advice given by local officials.

3. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for portions of the
Louisiana coast and additional Tropical Storm or Hurricane Watches
could be needed later today or tonight for the remainder of the
Louisiana coast and the Upper Texas Coast.

4. The system has the potential to produce very heavy rainfall along
and inland of the central Gulf Coast through early next week. For
more information, see products from your local National Weather
Service office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/1500Z 28.5N 86.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 11/0000Z 27.9N 87.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
24H 11/1200Z 27.5N 88.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36H 12/0000Z 27.4N 89.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 12/1200Z 27.6N 90.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 13/1200Z 28.7N 92.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 14/1200Z 30.7N 93.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
120H 15/1200Z 32.6N 94.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[shiny-pebble]

The discussion seems quite eerie when describing the conditions in the gulf.

Sent from my LG-H700 using Tapatalk

[gfsperpendicular]

By 48 hours and beyond,
however, the combination of atmospheric and oceanic conditions
become ideal for intensification. The very low shear shear
conditions, an impressive outflow pattern forecast by all of the
global and regional models, and anomalously warm sea-surface
temperatures of 30-31C argue for quick intensification, but given
that the system is still in the formative stages, the official
intensity forecast is a little below IVCN consensus through 48
hours and trends higher toward the ECMWF-based SHIPS guidance at
72 hours.

The presence of the word "ideal" in there scares me. Not very good, not almost ideal, but ideal.