ATL: BARRY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[gfsperpendicular]

One thing that looks really odd in the NHC's forecast is that it is still predicted to be a hurricane 12 hours after landfall. That's quite unlikely unless it hits as a Cat 4-5. Typical weakening is about half wind speed in 11-12 hrs.

I noticed that too. What factors impact the rate at which storms weaken over land?

[StormLogic]

866 holy saint helens

[SueOrleans]

Hopefully folks in SE Coastal Texas and Louisiana are getting prepared for a hurricane this weekend. Be safe you all!

Here in New Orleans, folks have been getting ready for water, but not extraordinary amounts. Streets are already flooding this morning - photos and video show a range from inches to a couple feet, so far. If we continue to receive significant amounts of water without breaks to allow the drainage system to do its job, we'll start seeing real problems. The river and levees are a separate threat that I don't want to think about yet. Even without any wind, this much water is a challenge for our area.

[Aric Dunn]

NAM plows the storm into the middle Texas coast. Interesting to see it turn the band that flooded Nola into a storm.

Yeah the models should all shift west since the center is fartger south already

[SoupBone]

NAM plows the storm into the middle Texas coast. Interesting to see it turn the band that flooded Nola into a storm.

Yeah the models should all shift west since the center is fartger south already

West of what? The NHC's forecast of near Lake Charles? That favors the Euro.

[HurricaneBrain]

Latest Euro (6z) has landfall in Central LA. A center further south should shift that landfall back west toward Lake Charles as the 0z showed.

NAM plows the storm into the middle Texas coast. Interesting to see it turn the band that flooded Nola into a storm.

Yeah the models should all shift west since the center is fartger south already

West of what? The NHC's forecast of near Lake Charles? That favors the Euro.

[StormLogic]

NAM plows the storm into the middle Texas coast. Interesting to see it turn the band that flooded Nola into a storm.

Yeah the models should all shift west since the center is fartger south already

West of what? The NHC's forecast of near Lake Charles? That favors the Euro.

West of Center of NHC projected path i believe sir

[Blinhart]

Yeah the models should all shift west since the center is fartger south already

West of what? The NHC's forecast of near Lake Charles? That favors the Euro.

West of Center of NHC projected path i believe sir

The question is by how much though??? 10 miles, 25 miles, 50 miles, 100 miles or 250 miles. The distance has a big difference in strength and flooding problems.

[al78]

What factors impact the rate at which storms weaken over land?

The topography (mountains rip a TC apart very quickly), humidity, and whether or not there is strong upper level outflow over the storm combined with low vertical wind shear (e.g. TS Fay intensified a bit over Florida because it had very favourable upper level atmospheric conditions).

[Aric Dunn]

I would bet money...

[LeonardRay]

West of what? The NHC's forecast of near Lake Charles? That favors the Euro.

West of Center of NHC projected path i believe sir

The question is by how much though??? 10 miles, 25 miles, 50 miles, 100 miles or 250 miles. The distance has a big difference in strength and flooding problems.

if it misses the weakness...the track could shift dramatically, IMO the middle Texas coast

[SoupBone]

West of what? The NHC's forecast of near Lake Charles? That favors the Euro.

West of Center of NHC projected path i believe sir

The question is by how much though??? 10 miles, 25 miles, 50 miles, 100 miles or 250 miles. The distance has a big difference in strength and flooding problems.

It's why I always ask for more info. Aric is known for his one liner teasers.

[gfsperpendicular]

What factors impact the rate at which storms weaken over land?

The topography (mountains rip a TC apart very quickly), humidity, and whether or not there is strong upper level outflow over the storm combined with low vertical wind shear (e.g. TS Fay intensified a bit over Florida because it had very favourable upper level atmospheric conditions).

Not a whole lot of mountains in that area, and the outflow for PTC 2 is looking fantastic. Maybe it makes sense?

[StormLogic]

West of what? The NHC's forecast of near Lake Charles? That favors the Euro.

West of Center of NHC projected path i believe sir

The question is by how much though??? 10 miles, 25 miles, 50 miles, 100 miles or 250 miles. The distance has a big difference in strength and flooding problems.

All depends on the setup over today and tonight, my guess is that it can easily track more westward 50-100 miles or so from projected center.

[GCANE]

Morning solar heating of the land is destabilizing the air over FL and GA.
CAPE is increasing and entraining into the circulation.
I expect to see convection pick back up this afternoon.
Also, popups should fire off across the pandhandle this afternoon.
Debris from this should entrain into the circulation over night helping to strengthen it.

[gfsperpendicular]

https://i.imgur.com/1Jsr5s4.png
866 holy saint helens

NAM 3k thankfully isn't the gold standard for TCs

[SEASON_CANCELED]

https://i.imgur.com/1Jsr5s4.png
866 holy saint helens

NAM 3k thankfully isn't the gold standard for TCs

Right..Tho lets be real.

We saw it in 2005. Its Not impossible..well not 866MB..but we saw. Dennis and Emily.

Get your preps and bugout bags in order if you are gulf coast, RIGHT NOW. Great time to check em

[GCANE]

UL environment continuing to improve for development.
If we get a solid donut around this, all hell would likely break loose.

[ronyan]

Can we tone down the silly posts about a sub-900mb hurricane in the gulf in July?

[GCANE]

Can we tone down the silly posts about a sub-900mb hurricane in the gulf in July?

Sub 900 is a stretch, but 5 years ago, you wouldn't see conditions like this in the GOM until late August or September.