ATL: BARRY - Models

[TheProfessor]

The biggest thing that the Ukmet is doing is that it's building a monster high pressure in the Rockies, even more so than last night's Euro. The GFS is of course the weakest of the 3 models and the furthest east model. I'd probably wager something in between the GFS and Euro when it comes to the ridge, but we'll see, the Ukmet could very well steal the show.

[SoupBone]

The biggest thing that the Ukmet is doing is that it's building a monster high pressure in the Rockies, even more so than last night's Euro. The GFS is of course the weakest of the 3 models and the furthest east model. I'd probably wager something in between the GFS and Euro when it comes to the ridge, but we'll see, the Ukmet could very well steal the show.

Or look like a turd in a punch bowl.

Our paid guys seems to like the GFS solution, but with uncertainty and average confidence. They have been very cautious with their wording regarding model runs.

[MississippiWx]

An example for how horribly off the CMC was at 12z: The HWRF, HMON, and GFS are all 24 hours slower than the CMC (at least).

[mcheer23]

Looks like we're going to get 2 east shifts from the HWRF and HMON

[TheProfessor]

It appears the HMON shifted back east again( I honestly can't remember where it was at the 6z lol.) Anyways it would keep New Orleans on the drier side of the storm.

[BigB0882]

It appears the HMON shifted back east again( I honestly can't remember where it was at the 6z lol.) Anyways it would keep New Orleans on the drier side of the storm.

So landfall East of Nola? That seems too far East. I’m still liking those in the middle, with Lake Charles seeming to be a nice compromise.

[ColdMiser123]

HMON makes landfall in far eastern Louisiana, which is on the far eastern side of the forecast tracks so far. ~970 mb at 80 KT.

HWRF is making landfall a touch west of there, ~960 mb, at ~100 KT.

[NDG]

It all comes down to King EURO, imo, at 12z

My guess is that it will be similar to its earlier 06z Rapid run.

[Pearl River]

HWRF looks to be around Grand Isle, then about due north.

[TheProfessor]

I see the HWRF wants me to experience my first ever hurricane.

[MississippiWx]

HWRF and HMON join the GFS on SE Louisiana landfalls. HMON even has a landfall on the MS Coast. Both have strong hurricanes. Not sure if I believe it yet. Too much waffling around.

[StormLogic]

12z

[mcheer23]

HWRF and HMON join the GFS on SE Louisiana landfalls. HMON even has a landfall on the MS Coast. Both have strong hurricanes. Not sure if I believe it yet. Too much waffling around.

We have models from the middle Texas coast to Mississippi...unreal lol

[MississippiWx]

HWRF and HMON join the GFS on SE Louisiana landfalls. HMON even has a landfall on the MS Coast. Both have strong hurricanes. Not sure if I believe it yet. Too much waffling around.

We have models from the middle Texas coast to Mississippi...unreal lol

Yep. It's almost as if we still have an undeveloped system. Lol.

[mcheer23]

HWRF and HMON join the GFS on SE Louisiana landfalls. HMON even has a landfall on the MS Coast. Both have strong hurricanes. Not sure if I believe it yet. Too much waffling around.

We have models from the middle Texas coast to Mississippi...unreal lol

Yep. It's almost as if we still have an undeveloped system. Lol.

Remember Debby back in 2012?

[MississippiWx]

We have models from the middle Texas coast to Mississippi...unreal lol

Yep. It's almost as if we still have an undeveloped system. Lol.

Remember Debby back in 2012?

I try to forget.

[StormLogic]

Has anyone noticed ALL the model tracks but two of them take it further south? IF it does indeed head more south won't that allow for more dev and strengthening? What happens after that?

[LeonardRay]

Euro is initializing too far north........

[tolakram]

[NDG]

At 24 hrs the 12z Euro is a little to the N & E of last night's forecasted position for the same time.